The Forecast Ledger
Every market we covered that has since closed, with the probability we published. This is the raw material of calibration — when we said 80%, how often was the money right? The ledger fills as markets resolve; scoring and calibration charts appear once enough history accumulates.
200 resolved markets in World · average publication probability 48.1%
By conviction — Virtually certain: 29 · Very likely: 14 · Likely: 23 · Leaning yes: 17 · A coin flip: 14 · Probably not: 32 · Unlikely: 24 · Very unlikely: 34 · Virtually impossible: 13
By quality — A: 4 · B: 8 · C: 54 · D: 96
Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks This Year Are a Coin Flip
Market closed · Polymarket
Jeff Beattie Edges Ahead in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek By-Election
Market closed · Kalshi
No Major City Faces Tornado Risk on September 2
Market closed · Polymarket
Peter Olofsson Is Likely the Next Regional Board Chair of Västerbotten
Market closed · Polymarket
Germany's Greens Appear Headed for a Bare Minimum in Sachsen-Anhalt
Market closed · Polymarket
US-Iran Diplomacy Has Gone Dark Through September
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia Will Enter Hannivka — Likely Before October
Market closed · Polymarket
Fay Leads a Wide-Open Race to Be the Atlantic's First Hurricane
Market closed · Kalshi
No Major U.S. City Faces Tornado Risk on August 31
Market closed · Polymarket
Bekim Sejdiu Is Likely Kosovo's Next President
Market closed · Polymarket
Eugenio Segura Vázquez Increasingly Favors to Win Quintana Roo
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Speak to Xi Jinping in September
Market closed · Polymarket
The Hormuz Blockade Holds — and No Diplomat Is Coming to End It
Market closed · Polymarket
A Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal This Year Is All But Off the Table
Market closed · Polymarket
A Nuclear Deal With Iran Is Not Coming This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia Is Unlikely to Capture Lyman Before End of 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran Targets Jordan as the Middle East's Crisis Deepens Beyond Israel
Market closed · Polymarket
China Will Not Blockade Taiwan in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
AfD Is Likely to Top Both German September State Elections
Market closed · Polymarket
Yegor Kovalchuk Is Likely to Win the Bryansk Oblast Governorship
Market closed · Polymarket
This Week's Global Earthquake Count Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Polymarket
Frank Scarpitti Is Likely Headed for Another Term as Markham Mayor
Market closed · Polymarket
No Major US City Faces Tornado Risk on August 29
Market closed · Polymarket
Google Maps Renames Lake Ontario
Market closed · Polymarket
Xiaomi Holds Above 2% Market Share But a Surge to 2.5% Has Collapsed
Market closed · Kalshi
Iran Keeps Hengam Island Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
Rayssa Furlan Is Likely to Win the Amapá Senate Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia Is Likely to Reach Dobropillia — But Not Soon
Market closed · Polymarket
Iceland's EU Referendum Looks Set to Fail
Market closed · Polymarket
The Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed to Normal Traffic Through Year's End
Market closed · Polymarket
Vásquez Sánchez Leads a Wide-Open Chiclayo Mayoral Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Anthropic's AI Market Share Has Likely Plateaued Below 3%
Market closed · Kalshi
Sergio Moro Is Likely to Win the Paraná Governorship
Market closed · Polymarket
Exceptional Drought Has Virtually Certain Grip on the American West This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Stealth's Market Share Is Almost Certainly Above 3% This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
Victoria's Third-Place Race Is a Dead Heat Between One Nation and the Greens
Market closed · Polymarket
Daniel Gobeil Likely Wins Chicoutimi—Le Fjord as Caroline Dubé Surges
Market closed · Polymarket
Germany's SPD Is Headed for a Narrow but Humiliating Result in Saxony-Anhalt
Market closed · Polymarket
AfD Is Poised to Win Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Market closed · Polymarket
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait Likely Stays Open Through Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Georgia Tree Is Likely to Win the Secret Harbour By-Election
Market closed · Polymarket
Tropical Storm Saudel Will Make Landfall in China
Market closed · Polymarket
No Major US City Faces Tornado Risk on August 26
Market closed · Polymarket
Ukraine Will Not Hold an Election This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Israel's Airspace Stays Open Through September
Market closed · Polymarket
Juan Reyes Mejía González Is Likely to Be Arrested This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Monique Taylor Takes a Narrow Lead in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek By-Election
Market closed · Polymarket
Moscow Air Traffic Suspension by Mid-September Is a Coin Flip
Market closed · Polymarket
Santa Catarina's Senate Race Is a Wide-Open Three-Way Fight
Market closed · Polymarket
Ceará's Senate Race Second Seat Is Wide Open After Capitão Wagner Collapses
Market closed · Polymarket
Israeli Military Action Against Syria Is Unlikely Through September
Market closed · Polymarket
São Paulo's Senate Second Seat Is Wide Open
Market closed · Polymarket
The Houthis May Target Saudi Arabia Before Mid-September
Market closed · Polymarket
The Rhine's Recovery Has Slipped Well Past Summer
Market closed · Polymarket
North Korea's August Missile Activity Is a Dead Heat Between Restrained and Intense
Market closed · Polymarket
Fort Worth Faces the Highest Tornado Risk on August 24
Market closed · Polymarket
Maranhão's Senate Second Seat Is Wide Open, Weverton Rocha Surging
Market closed · Polymarket
Nord Stream Will Not Restart Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
United Russia Is Poised for a Strong Duma Supermajority
Market closed · Polymarket
A Major Meteor Strike This Year Is Unlikely but Not Negligible
Market closed · Polymarket
A Catastrophic Earthquake Before 2027 Remains a Tail Risk
Market closed · Polymarket
Andrew Tate Is Unlikely to Be Released This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Ukraine Is Unlikely to Retake Myrnohrad This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
A China-Taiwan Military Clash Before 2027 Remains a Distant Risk
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran Is Likely to Strike an Arab Country Around August 17
Market closed · Polymarket
US-Iran Talks Are Alive but Stalling — and the Hormuz Crisis Lingers
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia Will Likely Not Capture Orikhiv by Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Anthropic Will Announce an IPO Before Early 2027
Market closed · Kalshi
Iran's Hormuz Fee Threat Is Fading — But the Strait Stays Disrupted
Market closed · Polymarket
Hormuz Will Not Return to Normal Before September 15
Market closed · Polymarket
A US-Iran Nuclear Deal Looks Increasingly Hollow Even If Signed
Market closed · Polymarket
Houthis Have Struck Saudi Arabia
Market closed · Polymarket
The US Will Not Acquire Any Part of Greenland This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia's Grinding Advance Keeps Kostyantynivka in the Balance
Market closed · Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei Is Likely Iran's Leader by Year-End — Unseen
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran's Airspace Remains Open for Now, but Closure Is a Live Risk by Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
The Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds Through Summer and Likely Into Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
California's August Carbon Auction Is a True Toss-Up Against the Futures Price
Market closed · Kalshi
Sudan's Civil War Is Likely to Run Through the End of 2026 Without a Ceasefire
Market closed · Polymarket
Xi Jinping Will Visit the United States Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
Serbia's Parliament Is Likely Headed for Dissolution This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
NATO Will Likely Down Another Russian Drone by August
Market closed · Polymarket
Eli Cohen Wins the Likud Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran Is Unlikely to Abandon Uranium Enrichment This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
US-Turkey CAATSA Sanctions Relief Is a Dead Heat for 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
2026 Is Likely to Be the Hottest Year Ever Recorded
Market closed · Polymarket
2026 Is on Track for a Normal Year of Major Earthquakes
Market closed · Polymarket
Ciro Gomes Is Favored to Win the Ceará Governorship
Market closed · Polymarket
Goïta's Hold on Mali Is a Genuine Coin Flip Through Mid-2027
Market closed · Polymarket
Israeli Military Action Against Beirut Remains Unlikely Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
DeepSeek Has Locked In a Market Share Above 26% This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
No Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal Before September
Market closed · Polymarket
Tropical Storm Lala Likely Misses Hawaii as a Hurricane
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran Likely Strikes Shipping on August 14 as Hormuz Closure Drags On
Market closed · Polymarket
Global Seismic Activity Is Running Hot This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Two Major Earthquakes Likely Struck This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Modi Remains Firmly in Power Through 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
No Major Country Is Likely to Recognize Israel This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
A Trump-Putin Meeting This Year Remains Unlikely Despite Intense Coverage
Market closed · Polymarket
No US Ally Will Get a Nuclear Weapon This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
A Major Earthquake of at Least 7.5 Magnitude Will Strike Before September
Market closed · Kalshi
A U.S. Invasion of Iran Before 2027 Remains Unlikely
Market closed · Polymarket
A US-Iran Nuclear Deal This Year Is Increasingly in Doubt
Market closed · Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro Is Likely to Finish Second in Brazil's First Round
Market closed · Polymarket
Claude Leads the AI Race Into 2026 With ChatGPT Closing In
Market closed · Kalshi
Russia-Ukraine Talks Are a Dead Heat Between Hope and Silence
Market closed · Polymarket
Israel and Lebanon Are Likely to Hold Diplomatic Talks Before October
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran Will Not Formally Withdraw from the NPT Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
The Iranian Regime Is Not on the Verge of Collapse
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia's Ground Campaign Is Stalling Well Short of Its Objectives
Market closed · Polymarket
A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire This Year Remains an Outside Chance
Market closed · Polymarket
Hichilema Is Poised to Win Zambia's 2026 Presidential Election
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran's Leadership Looks Set to Outlast Near-Term Pressure
Market closed · Polymarket
Putin and Zelenskyy Will Not Meet Before September 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Lee Jae-myung Is Likely to Serve Out 2026 as South Korea's President
Market closed · Polymarket
A US-China Military Clash Before 2027 Remains a Remote Risk
Market closed · Polymarket
The S&P 500 Is Converging on the 7,750 Range for Thursday's Close
Market closed · Kalshi
Christopher Luxon Stays as New Zealand's Prime Minister Through September
Market closed · Polymarket
The S&P 500 Posts a Decisive Rally on August 12
Market closed · Kalshi
United Russia's Regional Sweep Is Now a Dead Heat — While Yabloko Is Already Gone
Market closed · Polymarket
Sweden's Social Democrats Are All But Certain to Lead the Next Parliament
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia Is Likely to Strike Kyiv Again Before August 14
Market closed · Polymarket
Parti Québécois Is Likely to Win the 2026 Quebec Election
Market closed · Polymarket
A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire This Year Is Looking Increasingly Unlikely
Market closed · Polymarket
AfD Falls Short of a Majority in Sachsen-Anhalt
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Not Visit North Korea This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
The Nasdaq-100 Closes Around 29,400 on August 11 in a Dead-Heat Range
Market closed · Kalshi
July 2026 Is Unlikely to Break the All-Time Heat Record
Market closed · Kalshi
The Abraham Accords Are Likely Stalled — No New Member Looks Probable Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
The US Will Not Withdraw from NATO Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
Tlaxcala's 2027 Governor Race Opens as a Genuine Contest
Market closed · Polymarket
SpaceX Is Likely on Track for More Than Ten Launches in August
Market closed · Kalshi
Zelenskyy Posts 60–79 Times in the August 4–11 Window
Market closed · Polymarket
Houthis Likely to Strike Shipping Again This Month
Market closed · Polymarket
Sweden's Moderates Are Likely to Finish Third, but the Democrats Are Closing
Market closed · Polymarket
Linke Leads a Fragmented Berlin State Election Race
Market closed · Polymarket
A U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Endorsed by the UN This Year Is Likely Out of Reach
Market closed · Polymarket
Moscow Air Suspension by August 31 Is Unlikely After Dramatic Repricing
Market closed · Polymarket
The Euro Looks Pinned Near 1.156 Against the Dollar Monday Morning
Market closed · Kalshi
Israeli Forces Will Not Enter Nabatieh Before September
Market closed · Polymarket
Likud Narrowly Favored to Lead Israel's Next Legislative Election
Market closed · Polymarket
An Israel-Turkey Military Clash This Year Is a Distant Tail Risk
Market closed · Polymarket
No Major Earthquake Strikes Worldwide August 3–9
Market closed · Polymarket
Morocco's Second-Place Race Resets as RNI and PI Surge
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia Is Edging Toward Shevchenko, but the Offensive Is Losing Steam
Market closed · Polymarket
S&P 500 Looks Pinned in the 7,750 Range at Sunday's Close
Market closed · Kalshi
The Nasdaq-100 Faces a Wide-Open August Landing Zone
Market closed · Kalshi
United Russia Will Win Russia's Next Parliamentary Election
Market closed · Polymarket
Iotova Likely Wins Bulgaria's Next Presidential Election
Market closed · Polymarket
Erdoğan Remains Firmly in Power Through Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Israeli Forces Are Likely Dug In Beyond the Litani Through Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Daniel Vilela Is Likely to Win the Goiás Governorship
Market closed · Polymarket
NATO Article 5 Will Not Be Invoked Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro's Grip on Venezuela Is Likely Intact Through 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
The US Will Not Withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base by September
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran Will Not Invade Kuwait This Summer
Market closed · Polymarket
Cleitinho Azevedo Now Leads the Minas Gerais Governor's Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Tarcísio de Freitas Is Likely to Win the São Paulo Governorship
Market closed · Polymarket
András Baka Is All But Certain to Become Hungary's Next President
Market closed · Polymarket
East Asia Is Baking on August 8
Market closed · Polymarket
The U.S. Will Not Take the Panama Canal Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
A 2026 Hantavirus Pandemic Is Virtually Certain Not to Happen
Market closed · Polymarket
PAN Is Likely to Finish Second in Mexico's 2027 Legislative Election
Market closed · Polymarket
São Paulo's August 9 Temperature Is Likely Running Hot
Market closed · Polymarket
Cape Town's High Temperature on August 8 Is All But Certain to Hit 17°C
Market closed · Polymarket
Wellington Hits 13°C on August 8
Market closed · Polymarket
Zelenskyy Remains Firmly in Power Through 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
China Will Not Invade Taiwan Before October
Market closed · Polymarket
Israeli Forces Are Unlikely to Enter Tyre Before September
Market closed · Polymarket
Phoenix Will Not See Rain on August 7
Market closed · Kalshi
A US-Russia Military Clash Remains a Remote Possibility Through 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Is Likely to Meet with Mohammed bin Salman This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Typhoon Dolphin Will Strike Japan as a Very Strong Typhoon
Market closed · Polymarket
Putin Remains Firmly in Power Through Mid-2027
Market closed · Polymarket
The U.S. Measles Outbreak Is Virtually Certain to Exceed 3,000 Cases This Year
Market closed · Kalshi
Netanyahu Will Almost Certainly Visit New York City This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
A WTI Price Spike Above $115 This Year Is Unlikely but Live
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump, UFOs, AI, and ICE Will All Feature on ABC World News Tonight
Market closed · Kalshi
Market closed · Polymarket
Maduro Almost Certainly Finishes 2026 in Power
Market closed · Polymarket
Hamas Disarmament by Year-End Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Nigel Farage Will Win the Clacton By-Election
Market closed · Polymarket
The S&P 500 Closes Around 7,750 on August 7
Market closed · Kalshi
Nasdaq-100 Is Well Above 27,410 at Thursday Morning's Open
Market closed · Kalshi
The S&P 500 Is Already Above 7,555 This Morning
Market closed · Kalshi
The Nasdaq-100 Has Cleared 27,400 This Morning
Market closed · Kalshi
Wellington Hits 12°C on August 7 as Asian Cities Bake
Market closed · Polymarket
Netanyahu's Political Survival Through 2026 Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Israel Will Almost Certainly Not Strike Yemen Before September
Market closed · Polymarket
The American Southwest Stays Dry Through August 6
Market closed · Kalshi
Renan Santos Appears Headed for Third Place in Brazil's First Round
Market closed · Polymarket
August 6 Brings Settled, Moderate Heat Across the Northern Hemisphere
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump, Iran, Fauci, and Jalapeños Are All Certain to Air on ABC Tonight
Market closed · Kalshi
Xi Jinping's Hold on Power Remains Essentially Uncontested
Market closed · Polymarket
A China-Philippines Military Clash Before 2027 Remains an Unlikely but Live Risk
Market closed · Polymarket
Fishback Likely to Identify as Republican and Invoke DeSantis at Tallahassee Presser
Market closed · Kalshi
The World's Most Vulnerable Leaders Are Looking More Secure
Market closed · Polymarket