World

ChatGPT Will Very Likely Exceed 75 Million App Downloads in October

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “ChatGPT App Downloads in October”

virtually certain (99%)
Resolved The money put Above 35 at 99% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Above 35 99% Virtually certain · C
24h move 0.0 pts Above 35
Traded 24h $66K $229K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-08 in 2 days

Where the money stands

Above 35 99% 0.0
Above 50 99% 0.0
Above 65 99% 0.0
Above 75 99% 0.0
Above 80 9% ▼ 2.0
Above 85 2% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from World

World

A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by End of 2027 Is Now the Underdog Scenario

probably not (43%)

What had been a coin flip is now probably not — the sharp single-session drop reflects fading confidence that any diplomatic path closes within two years, while frontline markets show neither side making decisive gains, leaving the war in a grinding stalemate with no exit in sight.

Updated 4:57 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $86K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 96 days range 54% (1d ago) – 10% (18d ago) a coin flip → probably not 6 tier changes
World

US-Iran Diplomacy Is Frozen Despite a Durable Ceasefire

probably not (40%)

Both ceasefires hold at near-certainty and an invasion remains a remote tail risk, but the diplomatic track is effectively dead — a final nuclear deal is priced at just 10%, and the question of who even sits at the next negotiating table remains genuinely open, with no single envoy commanding confidence.

Updated 11:32 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $72K markets read 20 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 86 days range 98% (41d ago) – 24% (57d ago) leaning yes → probably not 22 tier changes
World one clear front-runner

Le Pen Leads a Volatile French Presidential Race as Lagarde Surges

Marine Le Pen: probably not (40%)

Le Pen has shed ground from a peak two weeks ago and the field behind her is fragmenting further, with Lagarde now the sharpest mover — a sign that the center is still searching for a consolidating figure rather than conceding the race to the right.

Updated 12:01 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $1.1M markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 100 days range 48% (18d ago) – 29% (99d ago) trending in today's news 4 tier changes venues agree