Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (68%)2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
A Democratic House has moved to near-certainty, and Texas — once a stretch — is now a lean Democratic pick for the Senate seat, signaling that the political environment has shifted far enough to put formerly safe Republican terrain in play.
At 44% and flat, Vance is the clear plurality favorite but nowhere near dominant — more than half the money sits on someone else. With Rubio the only named challenger above single digits, the field remains genuinely unsettled three years out.
What had been a leaning-yes call just days ago has collapsed to a dead heat, suggesting the replacement is either stalled in internal deliberations or less imminent than earlier signals implied — and a volatile tracking history means the next move could go either way.
A divided court hangs in the balance — if Alito holds his seat through mid-2027, a Republican-aligned Senate majority would retain the power to confirm his successor, a calculation that likely runs through every bet placed here. The market has swung sharply since tracking began, making any current reading provisional.
Updated 6:00 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
No candidate commands anything close to a majority, signaling Trump has either not decided or is keeping options open — Kari Lake's surge into the low single digits is the week's real movement, but the race remains genuinely fragmented with no clear frontrunner holding decisive ground.
Updated 10:55 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
Despite trending coverage of removal scenarios, there is virtually no serious money behind any mechanism — impeachment, incapacitation, or otherwise — that ends his presidency before 2027. The noise is political theater; the signal is stability.
Updated 1:08 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $9Kvenue Polymarketgrade Ctracked 85 daystrending in today's news
What had been a very likely Republican hold has quietly slipped a conviction rung, easing from the high-80s peak set a month ago — Scott Colom remains a distant challenger, but the race is no longer as closed as it once appeared.
Updated 4:15 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday