The Forecast Ledger
Every market we covered that has since closed, with the probability we published. This is the raw material of calibration — when we said 80%, how often was the money right? The ledger fills as markets resolve; scoring and calibration charts appear once enough history accumulates.
198 resolved markets recorded · average publication probability 75.2%
United Russia Increasingly Favored to Dominate the Next Parliamentary Election
Market closed · Polymarket
The Race for Third-Largest Company Is a Dead Heat Between Apple and Alphabet
Market closed · Polymarket
Spotify's Earnings Call Will Be Dominated by Headwinds and Retention
Market closed · Kalshi
Ostapenkov Is Likely to Advance Past Bittoun Kouzmine
Market closed · Kalshi
Sachko Edges Ahead of Giustino in a Competitive Round-of-32 Clash
Market closed · Kalshi
XRP's August Price Is a Dead Heat Between Recovery and a $1 Dip
Market closed · Polymarket
Ransom Canyon: Season 2 Is All But Certain to Be Netflix's #2 Show This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
America's Most-Googled Person of 2026 Is Anyone's Guess
Market closed · Polymarket
Buenos Aires Looks Set to Hit Exactly 16°C on August 4
Market closed · Polymarket
Anthropic Likely Holds the Coding Crown Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
Zverev Leads a Thinning ATP Montreal Field as Upsets Reshape the Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Chuck Norris Leads a Wide-Open Death-Watch Market Nobody Can Call
Market closed · Polymarket
Outer Delhi Warriors Hold a Narrow Edge Over New Delhi Tigers
Market closed · Kalshi
Elizara Yaneva Is Likely to Advance Past Klimovicova in Warsaw
Market closed · Kalshi
Planinsek Is All but Certain to Advance Past Vasa
Market closed · Kalshi
A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Before 2027 Remains a Remote Scenario
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia Likely Enters Dopropillia by Year-End as Broader Offensive Grinds Forward
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump and Putin Are Likely Not Meeting This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia's Communists Likely Lock Up Second Place in Parliamentary Vote
Market closed · Polymarket
Faker Is Almost Certain to Miss the International Finals MVP in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Hiroshima Toyo Carp Now Favored Over Yomiuri Giants
Market closed · Kalshi
Solana Is Firmly Above $33 Heading Into August 4
Market closed · Kalshi
Tarrant County's Judge Race Is Now a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Cindy Holscher Is Likely to Win the Kansas Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Micron Is Likely to Top $840 This Week, With Higher Targets in Play
Market closed · Polymarket
Tokyo Yakult Swallows Are Poised to Beat the Dragons as Lions Near Certainty
Market closed · Kalshi
Viktor Durasovic Is Likely to Advance in the Round of 32
Market closed · Kalshi
Argyrokastriti Is Likely to Defeat Agureeva in the Round of 32
Market closed · Kalshi
Seidel Is Likely to Defeat Galfi in the Round of 32
Market closed · Kalshi
Team Falcons PH vs. Team Spirit Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Set 1 Between Vrancken Peeters and Ebeling Koning Will Stay Under 10.5 Games
Market closed · Polymarket
Todd Blanche Is Likely Leaving His Current Role Before Year-End
Market closed · Kalshi
Progressive's Next Earnings Call Will Almost Certainly Address M&A
Market closed · Kalshi
A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement This Year Remains a Long Shot
Market closed · Polymarket
Orix Buffaloes Face Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
Market closed · Polymarket
Callie Barr Is Likely to Win the MI-01 Democratic Nomination
Market closed · Polymarket
Mike Trout Is Headed to the Los Angeles Angels
Market closed · Kalshi
Piros Holds a Moderate Edge Over Rincon in Hagen
Market closed · Polymarket
Novakovic and Delicata Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Publicly Insult Someone This August
Market closed · Polymarket
Mayot Is All But Certain to Advance Past Pieczonka
Market closed · Kalshi
Kimi Antonelli Is Likely the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion
Market closed · Polymarket
Xavier Becerra Is Likely the Next Governor of California
Market closed · Polymarket
OpenSea's Token Launch Is Likely to Disappoint
Market closed · Polymarket
The Bangsamoro Federalist Party Now Narrowly Favors to Win the BARMM Parliamentary Elections
Market closed · Polymarket
The 2026 WSOP Main Event Title Almost Certainly Stays in North America
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia Is Likely to Hold Rodynske Through Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
No New Country Joins the Abraham Accords by August
Market closed · Polymarket
Modena vs. Fiorentina Is Almost Certain to End in a Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Gomez and Squire Are Deadlocked Heading Into Their Round of 32
Market closed · Kalshi
Peggy Flanagan Is Likely the Next Democratic Senate Nominee in Minnesota
Market closed · Polymarket
Petrov Holds a Narrow Edge Over Iakubenko in Astana
Market closed · Kalshi
David Bakonyi Likely Defeats Klimas in Poprad
Market closed · Kalshi
Luca Potenza Likely Defeats Heredia in Tauste Round of 32
Market closed · Kalshi
Vukic–Altmaier Match Goes the Distance at the National Bank Open
Market closed · Polymarket
Michael Carbonara Leads FL-22 as David Burck Surges Into Contention
Market closed · Kalshi
CA Huracán and CA Tucumán Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Kuan-Yi Lee Likely Advances as Higher Seeds Dominate Early Rounds
Market closed · Kalshi
STRC's Path to $100 Is a Coin Flip, With September Surging as the Earlier Trigger
Market closed · Polymarket
Todd Blanche Will Be Trump's Next Attorney General
Market closed · Kalshi
Francesca Hong Is All but Certain to Win Wisconsin's Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Super Typhoon Dolphin Is Increasingly Pointed at China
Market closed · Polymarket
Greenland Stays Danish — Trump's Acquisition Push Has All but Collapsed
Market closed · Polymarket
Alexandru Nazare Is Now the Narrow Favorite to Lead Romania
Market closed · Polymarket
Byron Donalds Is All But Certain to Win Florida's Republican Governor Nomination
Market closed · Kalshi
Wembanyama Is the NBA MVP Favorite — but the Race Stays Wide Open
Market closed · Kalshi
Donavan McKinney Is Likely to Win the MI-13 Democratic Nomination
Market closed · Kalshi
Todd Blanche Is All But Certain to Be Confirmed as Senate Lines Up
Market closed · Kalshi
2026's Most-Googled TV Show Is Wide Open — Euphoria Leads a Fractured Field
Market closed · Polymarket
Squid's Token Launch Is Certain — the Only Question Is When
Market closed · Polymarket
A Quadra Kill in This LoL Match Is Highly Unlikely
Market closed · Polymarket
South Korea's EWY ETF Is Likely to Touch $161 This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Fedorova Favored to Advance Past Toregen in Astana
Market closed · Kalshi
Salt Lake Leads a Wide-Open Match Against Tigres
Market closed · Kalshi
China's AI Race to the Top Three Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Polymarket
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon Increasingly Favored to Lead Quebec
Market closed · Polymarket
The Bank of Japan Holds in September, But a Hike Is Closing In
Market closed · Polymarket
No Clear Favorite Emerges in 2026's Most-Searched Athlete Race
Market closed · Polymarket
7REX vs Estral Is Likely to Be a One-Sided Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump's Approval Rating Is Likely to Fall Below 39.2 by August 7
Market closed · Kalshi
paiN Gaming Academy Defeats Vivo Keyd Stars Academy
Market closed · Polymarket
Big Brother Season 28's Runner-Up Spot Is Genuinely Up for Grabs
Market closed · Kalshi
Olivarez Holds a Razor-Thin Edge Over Karigyo in Tianjin
Market closed · Kalshi
Minnesota Lynx Lead a Wide-Open 2026 WNBA Title Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Use Obama's Full Name Before September
Market closed · Kalshi
Arizona Diamondbacks Cover the Spread Against San Diego
Market closed · Polymarket
CA Paranaense Defeat EC Vitória 2–0
Market closed · Polymarket
Grêmio Esports Wins as paiN Academy Falls in Group Stage
Market closed · Polymarket
Bucaramanga vs. Cúcuta Ends in a Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Sera Nishimoto Is a Virtual Certainty to Advance
Market closed · Kalshi
Netflix's Top Show This Week Is Virtually Certain to Clear 18 Million Views
Market closed · Kalshi
The Best Actress Race Is Wide Open as Julianne Moore Fades
Market closed · Polymarket
Mercury and Sky Play to Completion in a High-Scoring Game
Market closed · Polymarket
US Average Gas Prices Hold Well Above $4.05 Tomorrow
Market closed · Kalshi
Tampa Bay Likely Beats Colorado in a High-Scoring Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
Maria and McNally Complete Their Match in a High-Scoring Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
Paranaense Demolished Vitória — and It Wasn't Close
Market closed · Polymarket
LDU Quito Beat Delfin — and Both Teams Scored
Market closed · Polymarket
JiaLi Dong Holds a Modest Edge Over Ching Laam Lai
Market closed · Kalshi
Dekkers Likely Ousts Choi in Tianjin Round of 16
Market closed · Kalshi
EV Commodity Prices Are Surging Well Past Pre-Set Thresholds
Market closed · Kalshi
Zeta Global Will Likely Name-Drop Palantir on Its Next Earnings Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Wisconsin's 2026 Governor Race Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Kalshi
Altmaier Is Likely to Advance Past Vukic in Round of 128
Market closed · Kalshi
Cardinals Face Yankees as Today's MLB Slate Takes Shape
Market closed · Polymarket
Dabin Kim Is Likely to Advance Past Chen in Tianjin
Market closed · Kalshi
Anna Yang Holds a Modest Edge Over Yujin Kim in Tianjin
Market closed · Kalshi
Huracán vs. Tucumán Is Headed for a Low-Scoring, Grinding Second Half
Market closed · Polymarket
Leong Likely Advances Past Koyama in Tianjin Round of 16
Market closed · Kalshi
Hwang Is All But Certain to Defeat Jeong in Tianjin
Market closed · Kalshi
A US Military Strike on Cuba This Year Is Unlikely
Market closed · Polymarket
Milei Narrowly Favored to Win Argentina's 2027 Presidential Election
Market closed · Polymarket
FlyQuest RED vs SwimTrek Blue Match Will Be Played
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Talarico Will Almost Certainly Hit Corruption Themes on Maddow
Market closed · Kalshi
Maddow's Next Broadcast Will Cover Blanche, the IRS, and Constitutional Fights
Market closed · Kalshi
LEO vs Lundqvist Lightside Is a Coin Flip Across Every Market
Market closed · Polymarket
A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Before 2028 Remains a Remote Prospect
Market closed · Polymarket
Count Binface Is Set for a Historically Strong Second-Place Finish in Clacton
Market closed · Polymarket
Alibaba Is Likely China's Best AI Model by September
Market closed · Polymarket
Ruddy Sack and Deer Gaming Head Into a Full Three-Game NLC Series
Market closed · Polymarket
Team Liquid Has Beaten Vici Gaming in the 1win Essence Playoffs
Market closed · Polymarket
Catanzarite vs. Okalova Completion Is a Coin Flip
Market closed · Polymarket
Starodubtseva Likely Through After Winning the First Set
Market closed · Kalshi
Lloyd Harris Is Likely to Beat Henry Searle in the Round of 32
Market closed · Kalshi
QUINTESSÊNCIA and BESTIA Academy Complete a Full BO3 Series
Market closed · Polymarket
Talleres Rout Platense as Argentine Football Delivers a Big Sunday
Market closed · Polymarket
Defensor vs. Cerro Is Essentially a Coin Flip With a Draw Surging
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Dominate the Language of Massachusetts's Democratic Senate Debate
Market closed · Kalshi
South Carolina Senate Debate Will Feature Endorsements, AI, China, and Fraud
Market closed · Kalshi
Sabalenka Is the Clear Favorite for the US Open
Market closed · Polymarket
Cruz Azul Leads a Wide-Open Liga MX Apertura Field
Market closed · Kalshi
Marsha Blackburn Is Likely Tennessee's Next Republican Governor Nominee
Market closed · Kalshi
The Odyssey Leads a Wide-Open Race for the Year's Most-Searched Film
Market closed · Polymarket
Navone Now Favored Over Berrettini in Round-of-128 Clash
Market closed · Kalshi
Ariana Grande Is Virtually Certain to Crack 15M Daily Views in August
Market closed · Kalshi
Johnny Speeds vs Metizport Map 3 Will Likely Go the Distance
Market closed · Polymarket
FCV Farul Constanţa Likely Stuns FCSB in a High-Scoring Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
Imperial Defeats Procyon Gaming in a Dominant Two-Map Sweep
Market closed · Polymarket
Zeleznicar Pancevo and Mladost Lucani Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Recoleta vs Nacional Looks Like a Genuine Toss-Up — With a Draw the Slight Favorite
Market closed · Kalshi
Valur vs. Stjarnan Ends in a High-Scoring Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
SwimTrek Blue Enters the Match as the Favorite Over FlyQuest RED
Market closed · Kalshi
Denny Hamlin Leads the NASCAR Cup Series Race with the Field Closing In
Market closed · Kalshi
A 2026 U.S. Recession Remains a Tail Risk, Not a Base Case
Market closed · Kalshi
O'Connell Holds a Narrow Edge Over Duckworth
Market closed · Kalshi
Brent Crude Is Surging Back Above $75 by Thursday
Market closed · Kalshi
McDonald's Next Earnings Call Will Likely Lead with the World Cup
Market closed · Kalshi
Welsh Fire vs Southern Brave Match Is Under Way
Market closed · Polymarket
The S&P 500 Opens and Closes Higher on August 3
Market closed · Polymarket
Crawley Town Rout York City by at Least Two Goals
Market closed · Polymarket
FK Spartak 1918 Varna Wins Against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Market closed · Polymarket
Crawley Town FC Wins Against York City FC
Market closed · Polymarket
Wildfires Dominate ABC World News Tonight
Market closed · Kalshi
WBT vs Leo Team Goes the Distance to a Third Map
Market closed · Polymarket
Cina and Ymer Set to Meet in Lexington
Market closed · Polymarket
The SAVE Act Is Almost Certain to Fail, Whatever Trump Says
Market closed · Kalshi
Adley Rutschman Has Been Traded to Boston
Market closed · Kalshi
Palantir Will Tout AI, Revenue Guidance, and Sovereign Themes at Its Next Earnings Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Ruzic Likely Advances as Favorites Dominate the Round of 128
Market closed · Kalshi
Keyd vs. BORRACHEIROS Goes the Full Three Maps
Market closed · Polymarket
Federico Cina Is Likely to Beat Ymer in the Round of 32
Market closed · Kalshi
Gentle Mates GC vs Karmine Corp GC Goes the Distance
Market closed · Polymarket
Serafini Likely Through as Heavy Favorite in Fano
Market closed · Kalshi
Castellanos Likely Advances Past Roche Alcaya in Tauste
Market closed · Kalshi
Snap's Next Earnings Call Will Be Dominated by Hardware and Restructuring
Market closed · Kalshi
Google's Most-Searched Person of 2026 Is Anyone's Guess
Market closed · Kalshi
Bartunkova Likely Advances as Andreescu's Return Falters
Market closed · Kalshi
Grab Will Almost Certainly Spotlight Superbank at Its Next Earnings Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Natus Vincere Sweep Shifters in the LEC Regular Season
Market closed · Polymarket
GenOne Wins Map 2 and the Match Against UNiTY Esports
Market closed · Polymarket
Djurgardens IF Routed Vasteraas SK by Multiple Goals
Market closed · Polymarket
Cracovia vs. Pogon Szczecin Produces Goals — and Pogon Dominates
Market closed · Polymarket
Ranheim vs. Haugesund Has Produced a High-Scoring Match
Market closed · Polymarket
Magdalena Frech Is All But Certain to Advance Past Jeanjean
Market closed · Kalshi
Welsh Fire Poised to Sweep Southern Brave in Both Men's and Women's Fixtures
Market closed · Kalshi
FC Universitatea Cluj Defeat FC Botoşani in a High-Scoring Match
Market closed · Polymarket
Seinajoen JK Rout HJK Helsinki 3-0
Market closed · Polymarket
Madison Sieg Faces Ankita Raina in ITF W100 Landisville
Market closed · Polymarket