World

A U.S. Anti-Cartel Operation on Foreign Soil Is Likely Before Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?”

likely (81%)
Leading outcome December 31 81% Likely · C probably not → likely
24h move 0.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $60K $86K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31 81% 0.0
October 31 59% ▲ 42.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Trump Is Very Likely to Speak With Xi Jinping by November 30

very likely (92%)

A direct channel between Washington and Beijing looks set to reopen well before year-end, which matters more than the call itself — every other major leader, from Putin to Zelenskyy to Carney, has also surged into high-probability territory, signaling a broad diplomatic reset is now the base case.

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Marine Le Pen Leads a Volatile French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: probably not (42%)

Her position is stronger than it was three months ago but well off last week's peak, and the field behind her — Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon splitting the remaining vote nearly evenly — means a runoff outcome remains genuinely unpredictable.

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traded today $1.3M venue Polymarket grade B tracked 95 days range 48% (13d ago) – 29% (94d ago) 4 tier changes
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A Ukraine Ceasefire by End of 2027 Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (50%)

Talks are edging closer — peace negotiations by year-end are now very likely, and a formal ceasefire agreement by 2027 sits at 72% — but what had been leaning yes on a ceasefire has collapsed to a dead heat, a sign that bettors see diplomacy as probable and a binding end to the war as far less certain. This market has flipped conviction five times; treat the current read as unstable.

Updated 7:39 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $258K markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 91 days range 54% (1d ago) – 10% (13d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 5 tier changes