Corrections
Every correction and retraction we have made, newest first. Our pages are generated from live prediction-market data by automated systems with deterministic accuracy gates; when something published fails those gates in a post-publication audit, we retract or correct it and record it here. We would rather show you this list than pretend it is empty.
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“McNally Likely Advances Past Liutova”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 68% (or 32% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 65% (or 35% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Luis Arraez Is All But Certain to Be Traded, With Steven Kwan Surging Into the Mix”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 94%; taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 6%; taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 8%
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Barcelona Increasingly Favored to Claim the 2027 La Liga Title”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'increasingly' requires the claim's probability in [55%,100%], but the claim prices at 52% (or 48% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Liutova vs McNally Set 1 Likely Goes the Distance”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 64% (or 36% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“CD Guadalajara Likely Wins Against Club Puebla”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 60% (or 40% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Francesca Hong Is All But Certain to Win Wisconsin's Democratic Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 93% (or 7% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Kawhi Leonard Is Likely Heading Back to Toronto, but the Clippers Are Closing In”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 62% (or 38% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Claude Is Likely the World's Best AI Model by Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 65% (or 35% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“A US-Iran Nuclear Deal Is More Likely Than Not — But Not Soon”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 57% (or 43% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Israel Has No Clear Exit from Lebanon”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Putin's United Russia Likely Holds Its Parliamentary Grip”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 56% (or 44% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Russia Will Likely Take Kostyantynivka — But Not Before Late 2026”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2025-12-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Has Already Rendered Its Verdict”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Has Already Rendered Its Verdict') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 94%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Has Already Rendered Its Verdict' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm This Year — The Money Already Knows It”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm This Year — The Money Already Knows It') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 88%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm This Year — The Money Already Knows It' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm This Year — The Money Already Knows It”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm This Year — The Money Already Knows It') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 90%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm This Year — The Money Already Knows It' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm — And the Money Has Known It All Along”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — And the Money Has Known It All Along') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 86%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — And the Money Has Known It All Along' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Money Already Knows It”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Money Already Knows It') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 94%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Money Already Knows It' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm. The Money Already Knows It.”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm. The Money Already Knows It.') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 92%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm. The Money Already Knows It.' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Has Already Rendered Its Verdict”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Has Already Rendered Its Verdict') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 86%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Has Already Rendered Its Verdict' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Money Has Already Rendered Its Verdict”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Money Has Already Rendered Its Verdict') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 87%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Money Has Already Rendered Its Verdict' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm — And the Money Stopped Pretending Otherwise”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — And the Money Stopped Pretending Otherwise') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 84%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — And the Money Stopped Pretending Otherwise' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Settled This Question Overnight”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Settled This Question Overnight') while YES on 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?' trades at 87%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ('Hamas Will Not Disarm — The Market Settled This Question Overnight' vs 'Hamas Is All But Certain Not to Disarm This Year')
2026-07-31 · retracted opinion · view
“Oil Won't Spike to $85 — The Iran Crisis Has Already Been Priced In”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ("Oil Won't Spike to $85 — The Iran Crisis Has Already Been Priced In") while YES on 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?' trades at 82%; opinion direction contradicts the published story ("Oil Won't Spike to $85 — The Iran Crisis Has Already Been Priced In" vs 'WTI Crude Is Locked in the Mid-$80s Through July')
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“July 31 Temperatures Are Already Settled Across Much of the Globe”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'already settled' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 91% (or 9% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Derbyshire Is Likely to Beat Glamorgan”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Liutova vs McNally Set 1 Likely Goes the Distance”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 64% (or 36% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Toronto Likely Wins a Pitcher's Duel Against St. Louis”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 71% (or 29% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Fukuoka Hawks Likely Hold Off Rakuten in Tight NPB Matchup”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 70% (or 30% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Pirates-Reds Game Likely to Produce Early Runs as Scoring Tilts Higher”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 67% (or 33% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“McNally Likely Advances Past Liutova”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 68% (or 32% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Bitcoin Likely Falls on July 31”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 32% (or 68% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“CA-23 Is All but Certain to Stay Republican”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 93% (or 7% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Todd Blanche's Confirmation Is Likely Sliding Toward Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 48% (or 52% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“A Gaza Phase II Deal Looks Likely Before Year's End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 65% (or 35% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Turkey's F-35 Reinstatement Remains a Long Shot Through 2027”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-06-30 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Corinthians vs. Paranaense Played a Corner-Lean First Half”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-07-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Jodar vs. Musetti Match Likely Decided in Straight Sets”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Trump Will Likely Invoke the Insurrection Act Before His Term Ends”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 57% (or 43% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Foreign Intervention in Gaza Increasingly Likely by Year-End as Iran Crisis Deepens”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 59% (or 41% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“LPL Group Stage Is a Coin Flip for High-Kill Drama”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-07-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Avice Team vs Daxak Team Is a Complete Toss-Up”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-07-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Jo Adell's Trade Chances Collapse as Skubal Deal Looks Inevitable”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'inevitable' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Bournemouth Rout Augsburg in a High-Scoring Preseason Fixture”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-07-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Tarik Skubal Is Likely Headed to the Los Angeles Dodgers”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 47% (or 53% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Deep Cross vs Ground Zero Clash Poised to Be a Bloodbath”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'poised to' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 50% (or 50% negated); expired contract: market resolved 2026-07-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Tel Aviv Will Likely Hit 34°C on July 31”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 73% (or 27% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Barcelona Likely Beats Birmingham”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 62% (or 38% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Guadalajara Likely Takes the Points Against Puebla”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 58% (or 42% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“The Iranian Regime Is All but Certain to Survive Into 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 10% (or 90% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Kawhi Leonard Increasingly Likely Headed Back to Toronto”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 65% (or 35% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Google's Next Gemini Pro Model Is All but Certain to Land in August”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Musk's Net Worth Likely Holds Above $700 Billion Through July”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 61% (or 39% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Alphabet Is All But Certain to Hold Third Place Among Global Companies Through August”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 90% (or 10% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“A Ceasefire Holds but the Crisis Deepens Around It”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-03-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“John James Is All But Certain to Win Michigan's Republican Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Alphabet Ends July as the World's Third-Largest Company”
failed post-publication audit: past-year timeframe 'through 2024' written as if future (publication year 2026)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“U.S. Military Footprint in 2026 Appears Likely to Hold at Eight Countries”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 44% (or 56% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“China's 2026 Growth Will Likely Land Between 4% and 5%”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-01-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“GTA VI Is as Likely to Arrive Before a Pandemic as Before a Rihanna Album”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 50% (or 50% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Before 2028 Remains a Remote Prospect”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-12-31 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Israel's Lebanon Presence Is Hardening Into Permanence”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Kimi Antonelli Is Poised to Dominate the 2026 F1 Season”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'poised to' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Crypto Market Structure Law Is Slipping Further Down the Calendar”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2028-01-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day Is All But Certain to Top 2026's Box Office”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 82% (or 18% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Canada's Clarity Act Is Likely Dead in 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 32% (or 68% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“An Anthropic IPO Likely Slips to Year-End 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 62% (or 38% negated); 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“An Israeli Ground Operation Inside Iran Remains a Long Shot Through Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-05-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Karen Bass Increasingly Holds the Edge in the Los Angeles Mayor Race”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-06-02 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Houthi Stranglehold on Red Sea Shipping Is Likely Easing”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“A US-Iran Nuclear Deal Is Likely Coming — But Not Before 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 56% (or 44% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Abiy Ahmed Almost Certain to Remain Ethiopia's Prime Minister”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-01, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“The Fed Is All But Certain to Skip Cuts Entirely in 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 84% (or 16% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“A U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Is Taking Shape, but Hormuz Recovery Remains Months Away”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Abdul El-Sayed Is All But Certain to Win Michigan's Democratic Senate Primary”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 90% (or 10% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“GPT-6 Is All but Certain to Arrive Before the End of 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 88% (or 12% negated); expired contract: market resolved 2025-12-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“A Democratic House Is Likely; the Senate Is Now a Toss-Up”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 45% (or 55% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Farage Holds Clacton — His Seat Is Not in Doubt”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Farage Holds Clacton — His Seat Is Not in Doubt') while YES on 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?' trades at 96%
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Israel's Airspace Closure Is Now Open-Ended”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-05-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Putin Is All But Certain to Rule Russia Into 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 18% (or 82% negated); 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-06-30 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Russia Is Likely Closing In on Kostyantynivka — but Peace Talks Are Fading”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Putin's United Russia Likely Holds Its Parliamentary Grip”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 60% (or 40% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Bitcoin Has Fallen Hard and Is Likely to Close July Near $63,000”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 38% (or 62% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Mojtaba Khamenei Is All But Certain to Lead Iran by 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 79% (or 21% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted article · view
“Kostyantynivka Will Fall — Russia's Timetable Is Slipping Into 2026”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2025-12-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“K27 Is Likely to Beat Just_Players in CS2”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 68% (or 32% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Rangers Likely Win in Dundee but the Gap Is Narrowing”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 60% (or 40% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Trent Rockets Are All but Certain to Beat Manchester Super Giants”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 91% (or 9% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Corinthians vs. Paranaense Shapes Up as a Corner-Lean Match”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-07-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Inter Milan Is the Likely 2026–27 Serie A Champion”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 50% (or 50% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Hong Kong Likely Sees a Cooler-Than-Expected August 1”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 44% (or 56% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Trump Will Likely Invoke the Insurrection Act Before His Term Ends”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 62% (or 38% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Barcelona Likely Win but Expect Goals Against Birmingham”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 58% (or 42% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Avice vs Daxak Is a Dead Heat on Every Spectacle Metric”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-07-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Bournemouth vs. Augsburg Second Half Is a Coin Flip”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-07-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Wesley Bell Likely Wins the MO-01 Democratic Primary Over Cori Bush”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 68% (or 32% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Vinicius Junior Likely Stays at Real Madrid, but Doubt Is Growing”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 64% (or 36% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“BN Likely Retains Negerei Sembilan as Opposition Fades”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Musk's Net Worth Likely Stays in the $0.70–$0.80T Range Through July 31”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 60% (or 40% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“A U.S. Anti-Cartel Operation Beyond Its Borders Is Still Likely This Month”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 57% (or 43% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Avengers: Doomsday Likely Claims 2026's Biggest Opening Weekend”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 58% (or 42% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“July US Inflation Is Likely to Print at 3.4%”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 38% (or 62% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“John James Is All But Certain to Win Michigan's Republican Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“The US Likely Strikes Eight Countries in 2026 — Not More”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 44% (or 56% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“China's 2026 Growth Will Likely Land Between 4% and 5%”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-01-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“CA-23 Is All but Certain to Stay Republican”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Todd Blanche Likely Becomes Trump's Next Attorney General”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 66% (or 34% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Crypto Market Structure Law Is Increasingly Unlikely Before Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2028-01-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Francesca Hong Is All but Certain to Win the Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 93% (or 7% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Extended's Launch Valuation Will Likely Clear $150M”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Democrats Are All but Certain to Reclaim the House in 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 82% (or 18% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“GPT-6 Will Likely Arrive by Year-End 2026, but Not Before Fall”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2025-12-31, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“OpenAI Is Likely Worth More Than $900 Billion by Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 71% (or 29% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Farage Holds Clacton — His Seat Is Not in Doubt”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Farage Holds Clacton — His Seat Is Not in Doubt') while YES on 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?' trades at 95%
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Bab el-Mandeb Closure Looks Increasingly Unlikely Through Mid-2026”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-30, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“An Anthropic IPO Is Likely Before Year-End, Though the Timeline Is Slipping”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 62% (or 38% negated); 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“STRC Is More Likely Than Not to Fall Short of $100 This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 38% (or 62% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Abiy Ahmed Almost Certain to Remain Ethiopia's Prime Minister”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-01, before publication 2026-07-31
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“GTA VI Is as Likely to Arrive Before a Pandemic as Before a Rihanna Album”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 50% (or 50% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Kimi Antonelli Likely Clinches the F1 Drivers' Championship”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 71% (or 29% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Putin and Zelenskyy Almost Certainly Will Not Meet This Year”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('Putin and Zelenskyy Almost Certainly Will Not Meet This Year') while YES on 'Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?' trades at 92%
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day Is All But Certain to Top 2026's Box Office”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [95%,100%], but the claim prices at 88% (or 12% negated)
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“The Fed Is Likely to Hike in September, but October Is No Longer a Lock”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 48%
2026-07-31 · retracted card · view
“Harry Kane Is Likely the Next Ballon d'Or Winner”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 53% (or 47% negated)