Corrections
Every correction and retraction we have made, newest first. Our pages are generated from live prediction-market data by automated systems with deterministic accuracy gates; when something published fails those gates in a post-publication audit, we retract or correct it and record it here. We would rather show you this list than pretend it is empty.
2026-09-14 · retracted card · view
“Yordan Álvarez Is Pulling Away in the AL MVP Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-14 · retracted article · view
“Sweden's Social Democrats Are All but Certain to Return to Power”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted article · view
“Andersson Remains Likely Sweden's Next Prime Minister as Kristersson Mounts a Real Challenge”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted article · view
“Zverev and Gauff Are Closing In on a Memorable US Open Double”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted card · view
“Sweden's Moderates Face a Wide-Open Vote-Share Outcome”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted card · view
“Sweden's Liberals Face a Coin-Flip Survival Vote”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted card · view
“Sweden Democrats Are Likely to Finish Second in the 2026 Parliamentary Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted card · view
“Sweden's Moderates Are Likely to Finish Third, but the Democrats Are Closing”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted card · view
“Sweden's Social Democrats Are All But Certain to Lead the Next Parliament”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted card · view
“Andersson Still Leads Sweden's PM Race, but Her Grip Is Slipping”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-14 · retracted card · view
“Zverev Leads the US Open Final as Shelton Closes In”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-13, before publication 2026-09-14
2026-09-13 · retracted card · view
“Big Brother Season 28 Is Anyone's Game as Yash Patel Fades”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-09-13 · retracted card · view
“Los Angeles R Leads a Wide-Open NFL Best-Record Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.23 (> 1)
2026-09-13 · retracted card · view
“Sweden's Social Democrats Face a Genuinely Open Vote-Share Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-09-13 · retracted card · view
“Texas Tech Leads a Wide-Open Big 12 Championship Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.12 (> 1)
2026-09-12 · retracted card · view
“Arsenal Leads the Premier League Title Race as Manchester City Surges”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-09-12 · retracted card · view
“Arsenal Holds a Narrow Lead in the Premier League Title Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.12 (> 1)
2026-09-12 · retracted card · view
“Bitcoin Is Likely to End 2026 Above $60,000”
failed post-publication audit: impossible move: p=0.872 with 24h move -0.212 implies prior price 1.084
2026-09-12 · retracted card · view
“Antonelli Is Likely Poised to Clinch the F1 Drivers Championship”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.39 (> 1)
2026-09-12 · retracted card · view
“Aaron Rodgers Is Heading to Pittsburgh”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-09-12 · retracted card · view
“Dee Valladares Leads Big Brother Season 28, but Nobody Is Safe”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-09-11 · retracted card · view
“Grand Theft Auto VI Is Likely the 2026 Game of the Year”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-11 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating on September 11 Is Too Close to Call”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.12 (> 1)
2026-09-11 · retracted card · view
“U.S. August Inflation Looks Stuck at 3.4%”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-11 · retracted card · view
“2026 Is on Track for a Normal Year of Major Earthquakes”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 14, 17, 20; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 13, 16, 19) or literally name the leading bucket '14–16'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-11 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Appears Headed for the 39.1–39.3 Range by September”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-09-11 · retracted card · view
“Fay Leads a Wide-Open Atlantic Hurricane Name Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-09-10 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Is Converging Around 39.1–39.3 by September”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-09-10 · retracted card · view
“Crew Girl Holds a Narrow Lead as Death of the Pastor's Wife Surges”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.16 (> 1)
2026-09-10 · retracted card · view
“Fay Leads a Wide-Open Race to Be the Atlantic's First Hurricane”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-09-10 · retracted card · view
“Crew Girl Is a Coin Flip to Top Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-09-10 · retracted article · view
“Nebraska's Senate Seat Is Likely Returning to Republicans”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-09-10 · retracted card · view
“Republicans Are Likely Headed Back to Nebraska's Senate Seat”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 74% (or 26% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 68% (or 32% negated)
2026-09-10 · retracted card · view
“Crew Girl Appears Headed for the Top US Netflix Spot This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.12 (> 1)
2026-09-10 · retracted card · view
“Kim Ahern Likely Wins Rhode Island's AG Democratic Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-09, before publication 2026-09-10
2026-09-10 · retracted card · view
“David Morales Is Likely to Win Providence's Democratic Mayoral Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-09, before publication 2026-09-10
2026-09-09 · retracted article · view
“"DTF St. Louis" Is Likely a Near-Total Emmy Shutout”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 2, 4, 6, 8, 10; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 1, 3, 5, 7, 9) or literally name the leading bucket '0-1'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-09 · retracted card · view
“DTF St. Louis Will Win Essentially Nothing at the Emmys”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 2, 4, 6, 8, 10; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 1, 3, 5, 7, 9) or literally name the leading bucket '0-1'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-09 · retracted article · view
“Le Pen Extends Her Lead, but France's 2027 Race Remains Wide Open”
failed post-publication audit: figure '8 percentage points' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-09-09 · retracted card · view
“Elaine Pelino Is Very Likely to Win the Rhode Island Republican Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-08, before publication 2026-09-09
2026-09-09 · retracted card · view
“Brad Finstad Is Very Likely to Hold MN-01 for Republicans”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-09 · retracted card · view
“Helena Foulkes Is Poised to Win Rhode Island's Democratic Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-08, before publication 2026-09-09
2026-09-09 · retracted card · view
“Anthony DiLorenzo Will Win the NH-01 Republican Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-08, before publication 2026-09-09
2026-09-09 · retracted card · view
“Maura Sullivan Is Likely the Next Democratic Nominee for NH-01”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-08, before publication 2026-09-09
2026-09-08 · retracted card · view
“Elon Musk Is on Pace to Post at Least 840 Tweets in September”
failed post-publication audit: impossible move: p=0.737 with 24h move -0.303 implies prior price 1.040
2026-09-08 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is Likely Photographed in Public Every Single Day This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-08 · retracted article · view
“Republicans Are Likely Headed for a House Minority in 2026”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 193, 198, 203, 208, 213, 218, 223, 228, 233, 238; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 192, 197, 202, 207, 212, 217, 222, 227, 232, 237) or literally name the leading bucket 'Below 193'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-08 · retracted card · view
“Democrats Are Likely Headed for a House Majority in 2026”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 193, 198, 203, 208, 213, 218, 223, 228, 233, 238; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 192, 197, 202, 207, 212, 217, 222, 227, 232, 237) or literally name the leading bucket 'Below 193'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-08 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is Likely to Appear in Public Every Day This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-08 · retracted card · view
“Exactly 12 Major Earthquakes Struck Worldwide This Week”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-07, before publication 2026-09-08
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“France's United Left Primary Is All but Certain to Be Canceled”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 94% (or 6% negated); taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-09-07 · retracted article · view
“Díaz-Canel Is Likely to Survive as Cuba's Leader Through Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 30% (or 70% negated)
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“Díaz-Canel Is Likely to Survive as Cuba's Leader Through Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 34% (or 66% negated)
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“2026 Is Likely to Be the Hottest Year Ever Recorded”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 74% (or 26% negated)
2026-09-07 · retracted article · view
“HBO Max Is Poised to Dominate This Emmy Season”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'poised to' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 68% (or 32% negated)
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“Turning Point: Generation 9/11 Leans Toward the Global Netflix Number Two Spot”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.11 (> 1)
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“HBO Max Is Likely to Lead This Year's Emmy Haul”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 68% (or 32% negated)
2026-09-07 · retracted article · view
“Someone Thinks Elon Musk Will Merge His Empires”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2028-01-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-09-07 · retracted article · view
“An Iran Deal Is Likely, But the Strait Stays Shut for Months”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 26% (or 74% negated)
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“Barcelona Favored to Win La Liga as Real Madrid Slips”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“AfD Is Likely to Win 38–41 Seats in Sachsen-Anhalt”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-06, before publication 2026-09-07
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“Germany's Greens Appear Headed for a Bare Minimum in Sachsen-Anhalt”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-06, before publication 2026-09-07
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“SPD Faces a Dead Heat Between Weak and Weaker in Sachsen-Anhalt”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-06, before publication 2026-09-07
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“AfD Falls Well Short of an Absolute Majority in Sachsen-Anhalt”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-06, before publication 2026-09-07
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“Denny Hamlin Leads the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-09-07 · retracted card · view
“The AfD Will Win Saxony-Anhalt's Parliamentary Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-06, before publication 2026-09-07
2026-09-06 · retracted card · view
“Ohio's Governor's Race Is a Dead Heat, With Acton Holding a Slim Edge”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'dead heat' requires the claim's probability in [45%,54%], but the claim prices at 55% (or 45% negated)
2026-09-06 · retracted card · view
“Claude Increasingly Favored to End 2026 as the Best AI”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-06 · retracted card · view
“Arsenal Leads the Premier League Title Race as Chelsea Surges”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-09-06 · retracted card · view
“The Odyssey Is All but Certain to Earn a Best Picture Nomination”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-09-05 · retracted article · view
“Israeli Forces Are Likely Staying Beyond the Litani River Through Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-05
2026-09-05 · retracted card · view
“Israel Is Likely Staying Beyond the Litani Through Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-05
2026-09-05 · retracted card · view
“"By Any Means" Opens to Between $7M and $8M This Weekend”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-09-05 · retracted card · view
“Hanwha Life Esports Lead a Near-Dead-Heat LCK Title Race as T1 Slip”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-05 · retracted article · view
“Maria Bartiromo Surges in Wide-Open Press Secretary Race”
failed post-publication audit: figure '12-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-09-05 · retracted article · view
“The S&P 500 Faces a Wide-Open Road to Year-End 2026”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 4,000, 4,200, 4,400, 4,600, 4,800, 5,000, 5,200, 5,400, 5,600, 5,800, 6,000, 6,200, 6,400, 6,600, 6,800, 7,000, 7,200, 7,400, 7,600, 7,800, 8,000, 8,200, 8,400, 8,600, 8,800, 9,000.01; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 3,999.99, 4,199.99, 4,399.99, 4,599.99, 4,799.99, 4,999.99, 5,199.99, 5,399.99, 5,599.99, 5,799.99, 5,999.99, 6,199.99, 6,399.99, 6,599.99, 6,799.99, 6,999.99, 7,199.99, 7,399.99, 7,599.99, 7,799.99, 7,999.99, 8,199.99, 8,399.99, 8,599.99, 8,799.99, 9,000) or literally name the leading bucket '7,800 to 7,999.99'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-05 · retracted card · view
“The S&P 500 Is Likely to End 2026 Near Current Highs”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 4,000, 4,200, 4,400, 4,600, 4,800, 5,000, 5,200, 5,400, 5,600, 5,800, 6,000, 6,200, 6,400, 6,600, 6,800, 7,000, 7,200, 7,400, 7,600, 7,800, 8,000, 8,200, 8,400, 8,600, 8,800, 9,000.01; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 3,999.99, 4,199.99, 4,399.99, 4,599.99, 4,799.99, 4,999.99, 5,199.99, 5,399.99, 5,599.99, 5,799.99, 5,999.99, 6,199.99, 6,399.99, 6,599.99, 6,799.99, 6,999.99, 7,199.99, 7,399.99, 7,599.99, 7,799.99, 7,999.99, 8,199.99, 8,399.99, 8,599.99, 8,799.99, 9,000) or literally name the leading bucket '7,800 to 7,999.99'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Appears Locked Near 39.5 by Early September”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.13 (> 1)
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold Looks Set to Ease — But Not Yet”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-04
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Increasingly Favors a Narrow 39.7–39.9 Band by September”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.12 (> 1)
2026-09-04 · retracted article · view
“Trump's August Diplomatic Calendar Is Taking Unexpected Shape”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-04
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is Likely to Speak to Carney in August, with Putin Climbing the List”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-04
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Truth Social Output This Week Is a Toss-Up”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 80, 100, 120, 140, 160, 180, 200, 220, 241; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 79, 99, 119, 139, 159, 179, 199, 219, 240) or literally name the leading bucket '160-179'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Solana Is Likely to Revisit $90 Before Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 74% (or 26% negated)
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Fatima Shaban Is Likely to Win the Scarborough Southwest By-Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-03, before publication 2026-09-04
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Yash Patel Leads a Wide-Open Big Brother Season 28”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-09-04 · retracted article · view
“GTA VI Extended Look Likely Lands 20–22 Million Views in Week One”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-03, before publication 2026-09-04
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“GTA VI Extended Look Is Very Likely to Land Between 20 and 22 Million Views”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-03, before publication 2026-09-04
2026-09-04 · retracted card · view
“Jeff Beattie Edges Ahead in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek By-Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-03, before publication 2026-09-04
2026-09-03 · retracted card · view
“Jenna Dewan Leads a Suddenly Wide-Open Dancing with the Stars Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.16 (> 1)
2026-09-03 · retracted card · view
“OpenAI's Astra Model Is Likely Landing on September 3”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.33 (> 1)
2026-09-03 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Appears Headed for the Low 40s by September 4”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-09-03 · retracted card · view
“Base's Token Launch Is a Coin Flip, but the Timeline Is Shifting Earlier”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'a coin flip' requires the claim's probability in [45%,54%], but the claim prices at 56% (or 44% negated)
2026-09-03 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Is Headed Slightly Higher by September”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“GTA VI's Extended Look Likely Lands Between 20 and 22 Million Views in Week One”
failed post-publication audit: impossible move on outcome '22-24M': prob 0.211 with change +0.276 implies prior -0.065; impossible move on outcome '24-26M': prob 0.025 with change +0.061 implies prior -0.036
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Cuba's Regime Is Almost Certainly Surviving Into 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 18% (or 82% negated); taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 12% (or 88% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“The Nasdaq Looks Set to Close 2026 Far Below Current Highs”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 19,000, 19,500, 20,000, 20,500, 21,000, 21,500, 22,000, 22,500, 23,000, 23,500, 24,000, 24,500, 25,000, 25,500, 26,000, 26,500, 27,000, 27,500, 28,000, 28,500, 29,000, 29,500, 30,000, 30,500, 31,000, 31,500, 32,000, 32,500, 33,000.01; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 18,999.99, 19,499.99, 19,999.99, 20,499.99, 20,999.99, 21,499.99, 21,999.99, 22,499.99, 22,999.99, 23,499.99, 23,999.99, 24,499.99, 24,999.99, 25,499.99, 25,999.99, 26,499.99, 26,999.99, 27,499.99, 27,999.99, 28,499.99, 28,999.99, 29,499.99, 29,999.99, 30,499.99, 30,999.99, 31,499.99, 31,999.99, 32,499.99, 33,000) or literally name the leading bucket '33,000.01 or above'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Khamenei's Grip Likely Holds Through the Foreseeable Horizon”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 26% (or 74% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“The Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed Through August”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“Bitcoin Is Comfortably Above $80,000 Today — But the Money Expects a Retreat by Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, 35,000, 40,000, 45,000, 50,000, 55,000, 60,000, 65,000, 70,000, 75,000, 80,000, 85,000, 90,000, 95,000, 100,000, 105,000, 110,000, 115,000, 120,000, 125,000, 130,000, 135,000, 140,000, 145,000, 150,000; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 19,999.99, 24,999.99, 29,999.99, 34,999.99, 39,999.99, 44,999.99, 49,999.99, 54,999.99, 59,999.99, 64,999.99, 69,999.99, 74,999.99, 79,999.99, 84,999.99, 89,999.99, 94,999.99, 99,999.99, 104,999.99, 109,999.99, 114,999.99, 119,999.99, 124,999.99, 129,999.99, 134,999.99, 139,999.99, 144,999.99, 149,999.99) or literally name the leading bucket '75,000 to 79,999.99'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“Democrats Are Likely Headed for a House Majority, but Its Size Is Anyone's Guess”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 210, 214, 218, 222, 226, 230, 234, 238, 242, 246, 250; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 209, 213, 217, 221, 225, 229, 233, 237, 241, 245, 249) or literally name the leading bucket '226-229'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“United Russia's Duma Majority Faces Wider Uncertainty Than Expected”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 280, 295, 310, 325, 340, 355; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 279, 294, 309, 324, 339, 354) or literally name the leading bucket '325–339'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Bitcoin's Year-End Price Is Anyone's Guess”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, 35,000, 40,000, 45,000, 50,000, 55,000, 60,000, 65,000, 70,000, 75,000, 80,000, 85,000, 90,000, 95,000, 100,000, 105,000, 110,000, 115,000, 120,000, 125,000, 130,000, 135,000, 140,000, 145,000, 150,000; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 19,999.99, 24,999.99, 29,999.99, 34,999.99, 39,999.99, 44,999.99, 49,999.99, 54,999.99, 59,999.99, 64,999.99, 69,999.99, 74,999.99, 79,999.99, 84,999.99, 89,999.99, 94,999.99, 99,999.99, 104,999.99, 109,999.99, 114,999.99, 119,999.99, 124,999.99, 129,999.99, 134,999.99, 139,999.99, 144,999.99, 149,999.99) or literally name the leading bucket '75,000 to 79,999.99'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Democrats Are Likely Headed for a House Majority, but Its Size Is Anyone's Guess”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on bucket edges — valid '>=' values (lower edges): 210, 214, 218, 222, 226, 230, 234, 238, 242, 246, 250; valid '<=' values (upper edges): 209, 213, 217, 221, 225, 229, 233, 237, 241, 245, 249) or literally name the leading bucket '226-229'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“The Putin-Iran Meeting Is Already a Certainty”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'a certainty' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 97% (or 3% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Putin's Meeting With Iran Is Already Happening — and the Strait Stays Shut”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'already happening' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 97% (or 3% negated); dek taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 97% (or 3% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Iceland's EU Dream Is All But Dead”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 5% (or 95% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“The Case for Restraint Is Already Won”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'remote' requires the claim's probability in [0%,10%], but the claim prices at 12% (or 88% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Bitcoin Is Likely Headed Back Above $80,000 — and the Odds Are Now Saying So Loudly”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 74% (or 26% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“The Guns Are Silent, and They're Staying That Way”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'virtually certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 97% (or 3% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Kushner Leads the Field, But the Iran Talks Are Already a Different Game”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 63% (or 37% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“The Hormuz Deal Is Likely Done Before Summer Ends”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 74% (or 26% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Iran's Blockade Ends This Year — But Don't Call It a Victory”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'remote' requires the claim's probability in [0%,10%], but the claim prices at 83% (or 17% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Iran's Blockade Is Ending — the Only Question Is When”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“The Iranian Blockade Is Already a Dead Letter”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'a formality' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 95% (or 5% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Iran's Blockade Is Already as Good as Over”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 4%
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Iran's Blockade Is Already Over in Everything But Name”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'already over' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 97% (or 3% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“The Iranian Blockade Is All But Over”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“The US-Iran Ceasefire Is Likely Already a Done Deal”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'a done deal' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 83% (or 17% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Iran's Blockade Is Already Living on Borrowed Time”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 95% (or 5% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“Todd Blanche Is Already the Attorney General”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted opinion · view
“The Clock on Cartel Country Has Already Run Out”
failed post-publication audit: dek taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 82% (or 18% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“Variational's Token Launch Will Almost Certainly Clear $100M — The $1B Question Is Still Open”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 97% (or 3% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“AfD's Absolute Majority in Sachsen-Anhalt Is a Dead Heat”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'dead heat' requires the claim's probability in [45%,54%], but the claim prices at 44% (or 56% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Xi Jinping Will Almost Certainly Visit the United States Before 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 97% (or 3% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“The Nasdaq Is Poised to End 2026 Well Below 33,000”
failed post-publication audit: bucket market: the claim must bind to an aggregate threshold (a 'threshold' on a bucket edge — valid '>=' edges: 19,000, 19,500, 20,000, 20,500, 21,000, 21,500, 22,000, 22,500, 23,000, 23,500, 24,000, 24,500, 25,000, 25,500, 26,000, 26,500, 27,000, 27,500, 28,000, 28,500, 29,000, 29,500, 30,000, 30,500, 31,000, 31,500, 32,000, 32,500, 33,000.01) or literally name the leading bucket '33,000.01 or above'; the dial cannot show a lone bucket under a claim about the whole range
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“United Russia Is Likely to Dominate the Next Parliamentary Election”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 74% (or 26% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“NVIDIA Likely Remains the World's Most Valuable Company Through 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 74% (or 26% negated)
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“Summer 2026 Has No Song of the Summer Yet”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Summer 2026 Has No Song of the Summer Yet”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“Hormuz Disruption Will Almost Certainly Outlast the Year”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“OpenAI's Astra Release Date Is Anyone's Guess”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Richard Neal Is Likely to Hold His Massachusetts Congressional Seat”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Dan Koh Is Likely the MA-06 Democratic Nominee”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Stephen Lynch Is Likely to Win the MA-08 Democratic Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“Putin and Iran Are Talking — the Strait Stays Shut”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“Tropical Storm Saudel Is Almost Certain to Miss Japan”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted article · view
“Moulton Gains Ground, but Markey Still Leads Massachusetts's Democratic Senate Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Putin and Iran Are Talking — the Strait Stays Shut”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-02 · retracted card · view
“Tropical Storm Saudel Is Almost Certain to Miss Japan”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-09-01, before publication 2026-09-02
2026-09-01 · retracted card · view
“Fay Leads a Wide-Open Atlantic Hurricane Name Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-09-01 · retracted article · view
“The 2028 Democratic Race Is Wide Open With AOC and Ossoff Sharing a Narrow Lead”
failed post-publication audit: figure '10%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-09-01 · retracted article · view
“Jon Rahm Narrowly Leads a Wide-Open Field for Trump's August Praise”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-01
2026-09-01 · retracted card · view
“Jon Rahm Narrowly Leads a Wide-Open Field for Trump's August Praise”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-01
2026-09-01 · retracted article · view
“Ossoff Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '10%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-09-01 · retracted card · view
“The Iranian Rial Has Stabilized Around 2.1–2.2 Million per Dollar”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-01
2026-09-01 · retracted article · view
“Iran Is Likely to Strike an Arab Neighbor as the Hormuz Crisis Deepens”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-01
2026-09-01 · retracted article · view
“Cristobal Is the Likely Name of the Atlantic's First Hurricane This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 46% (or 54% negated)
2026-09-01 · retracted card · view
“No Major Earthquake Is Almost Certain This Week”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-01
2026-09-01 · retracted card · view
“Daniel Gobeil Is Likely to Win the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-01
2026-09-01 · retracted card · view
“Bank of Israel Will Likely Hold Rates in August”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-31, before publication 2026-09-01
2026-09-01 · retracted card · view
“Cristobal Is the Likely Name of the Atlantic's First Hurricane This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 46% (or 54% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 31% (or 69% negated)
2026-08-31 · retracted article · view
“The 2028 Democratic Race Has No Clear Heir — and the Money Knows It”
failed post-publication audit: figure '10%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-31 · retracted article · view
“Ossoff Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Presidential Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '10%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-31 · retracted article · view
“Julián Álvarez Is Likely Staying at Atlético Madrid”
failed post-publication audit: figure '7%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-31 · retracted article · view
“Russia's Donbas Grind Slows Even as Sumy Remains Out of Reach”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-04-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-31 · retracted article · view
“Ocasio-Cortez Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '10%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-31 · retracted card · view
“The Iranian Rial Has Found a Floor — and the Money Knows Where”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-31 · retracted card · view
“Rafael López Aliaga Now Edges Ahead in Lima's Mayoral Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.28 (> 1)
2026-08-31 · retracted article · view
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day's Fifth Weekend Is Locked In Around $23 Million”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-30, before publication 2026-08-31
2026-08-31 · retracted article · view
“Iceland's EU Referendum Is All But Dead”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-30, before publication 2026-08-31
2026-08-31 · retracted card · view
“The Odyssey Likely Earns $13–14.5 Million in Its Seventh Weekend”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-30, before publication 2026-08-31
2026-08-31 · retracted card · view
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day Likely Earns $22–24 Million in Its Fifth Weekend”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-30, before publication 2026-08-31
2026-08-31 · retracted card · view
“The Dog Stars Opens to Under $8 Million This Weekend”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-30, before publication 2026-08-31
2026-08-31 · retracted card · view
“Iceland's EU Membership Referendum Has Failed”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-30, before publication 2026-08-31
2026-08-30 · retracted article · view
“AOC Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Race with No Clear Heir”
failed post-publication audit: figure '27-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-30 · retracted article · view
“The Guns Are Silent, But the Strait Remains Strangled”
failed post-publication audit: figure '34%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-30 · retracted card · view
“'Death of the Pastor's Wife' Is Likely Set to Top Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-30 · retracted card · view
“Bab el-Mandeb Strait Traffic Is Tracking Below Recent Highs This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-08-30 · retracted article · view
“Pete Crow-Armstrong Is Poised to Claim the NL MVP”
failed post-publication audit: figure '96%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-30 · retracted article · view
“Julian Alvarez Looks Set to Stay at Atlético Madrid”
failed post-publication audit: figure '10%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-30 · retracted article · view
“Arsenal Holds a Slim Lead in the Premier League Title Race”
failed post-publication audit: figure '14%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-30 · retracted article · view
“Pete Crow-Armstrong Is Poised to Claim the NL MVP”
failed post-publication audit: figure '96%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-30 · retracted article · view
“Luke Herdegen Is All But Certain to Win the Secret Harbour By-Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-29, before publication 2026-08-30
2026-08-30 · retracted card · view
“Luke Herdegen Wins the Secret Harbour By-Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-29, before publication 2026-08-30
2026-08-29 · retracted card · view
“Kreiss-Tomkins Edges Ahead in a Wide-Open Alaska Governor's Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-29 · retracted article · view
“Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '28-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-29 · retracted card · view
“A'ja Wilson Likely Wins the WNBA MVP as Marina Mabrey Surges Into Contention”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-29 · retracted card · view
“Arsenal Holds a Narrow Edge in a Two-Horse Premier League Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-29 · retracted card · view
“Death of the Pastor's Wife Dominates US Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-29 · retracted card · view
“Bobby Pulido Holds a Razor-Thin Edge in TX-15”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.18 (> 1)
2026-08-29 · retracted article · view
“Arsenal Leads, But Manchester City Is Closing”
failed post-publication audit: figure '60%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '59-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-28 · retracted card · view
“Jack Lowden Leads a Wide-Open Race to Be the Next James Bond”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.38 (> 1)
2026-08-28 · retracted article · view
“Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '28 points' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-28 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Appears Locked in the High 39s by Late August”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-28 · retracted card · view
“The Nasdaq-100 Looks Rangebound Near 29,400 Come Late August”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.11 (> 1)
2026-08-28 · retracted article · view
“Jon Ossoff Leads a Fractured 2028 Democratic Field Nobody Has Locked Up”
failed post-publication audit: figure '28-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-28 · retracted card · view
“'The Dog Stars' Opening Weekend Is Too Close to Call”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-28 · retracted article · view
“Jon Ossoff Leads a Fractured, Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '28 percentage points' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-28 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Appears Stuck in the High 39s”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-08-28 · retracted card · view
“Death of the Pastor's Wife Likely Holds Netflix's Top Spot Through August”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-28 · retracted card · view
“Death of the Pastor's Wife Likely Holds the Top Netflix Spot Through Month-End”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted article · view
“Russia's Central Bank Is Likely Done Hiking — A Hold Is Coming in September”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“'Death of the Pastor's Wife' Likely Holds the Top Netflix Spot This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Russia's Central Bank Is Likely Done Hiking — A Hold Comes in September”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 71% (or 29% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 70% (or 30% negated)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Claude Is Increasingly Favored to Be the Best AI Model by End of 2026”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Death of the Pastor's Wife Looks Likely to Top Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Shiba Inu Is Likely Locked in a Tight Price Band Through Wednesday”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.12 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Minnesota Holds a Commanding Lead in the WNBA Championship Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted article · view
“Bayern Munich Is All But Certain to Win the 2027 Bundesliga”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated)
2026-08-27 · retracted article · view
“AOC Leads a Fractured 2028 Democratic Field with No Candidate Near a Majority”
failed post-publication audit: figure '27-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“'Death of the Pastor's Wife' Narrowly Favored to Top Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.11 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Bayern Munich Is All But Certain to Win the 2027 Bundesliga”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated); taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated)
2026-08-27 · retracted article · view
“A Ukraine-Russia Diplomatic Meeting Is Increasingly Likely, but Crimea Remains Out of Reach”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-27 · retracted article · view
“Ethereum Is Poised to Reclaim $2,600 in August”
failed post-publication audit: figure '40 percentage points' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Harry Kane Leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or Race as Mbappe Fades”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.16 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted article · view
“The 2028 Democratic Race Is Wide Open, and Nobody Is Close to Winning It”
failed post-publication audit: figure '27 points' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Appears Headed Slightly Lower by August 28”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Death of the Pastor's Wife Increasingly Favored to Top Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.14 (> 1)
2026-08-27 · retracted card · view
“Death of the Pastor's Wife Is Likely to Top US Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.14 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Kuminga Is Headed to Cleveland”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.21 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted article · view
“Jon Ossoff Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Presidential Race”
failed post-publication audit: figure '11 percent' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Death of the Pastor's Wife Is Likely to Top US Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Jack Lowden Edges Ahead in a Wide-Open Bond Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Netflix's Top Spot This Week Is a Dead Heat”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.20 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is Likely to Post at an Elevated Rate This Week, With a Surge Possible”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Alphabet Appears Headed for Third-Largest Company by September”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Zelenskyy's Posting Volume This Week Is Too Close to Call”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Nene Royal Leads a Tightening AGT Race as Olivia Befus Surges”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Outer Banks Season 5 Leads a Genuinely Contested Netflix Weekly Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.24 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted opinion · view
“The Hormuz Blockage Won't Break by August — But the End Is Now in Sight”
failed post-publication audit: opinion direction contradicts the published story ("The Hormuz Blockage Won't Break by August — But the End Is Now in Sight" vs 'The Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed Through August')
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“James Fishback Is Headed for Single Digits in the Florida GOP Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-18, before publication 2026-08-26
2026-08-26 · retracted article · view
“Pete Crow-Armstrong Leads the NL MVP Race, but Ohtani Is Closing”
failed post-publication audit: figure '88%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '96%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is Heading for a High-Volume Posting Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Mike Mazzei Is Likely to Win Oklahoma's Republican Governor Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-25, before publication 2026-08-26
2026-08-26 · retracted article · view
“Mike Mazzei Is Likely to Claim Oklahoma's Republican Nomination”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-25, before publication 2026-08-26
2026-08-26 · retracted article · view
“Darline Graham Nordone Is All But Certain to Win South Carolina's Republican Senate Nomination”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-25, before publication 2026-08-26
2026-08-26 · retracted card · view
“Darline Graham Nordone Is the South Carolina Republican Senate Nominee”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-25, before publication 2026-08-26
2026-08-25 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Is Pinned Near 39.5 This Month”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.23 (> 1)
2026-08-25 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Is Pinned Near 39.5 This August”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.19 (> 1)
2026-08-25 · retracted card · view
“The Iranian Rial Stabilizes Near Historic Lows Against the Dollar”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-25 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Is Pinned Near 39.5 Heading Into Late August”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.11 (> 1)
2026-08-25 · retracted card · view
“Z.ai Is Likely Behind the Ox Alpha Stealth AI Model”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.35 (> 1)
2026-08-25 · retracted article · view
“A New GTA VI Trailer Is Virtually Certain Before October”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'virtually certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-08-24 · retracted card · view
“Minnesota Is the Favorite in a Wide-Open Women's Basketball Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-24 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Posting Volume This Week Defies Any Clear Prediction”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.17 (> 1)
2026-08-24 · retracted article · view
“Bitcoin Has Likely Already Crossed $80,000 — And the Year-End Picture Is Brighter Still”
failed post-publication audit: figure '42%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-24 · retracted article · view
“Darline Graham Is Likely Winning the South Carolina Senate Runoff — But Not Running Away With It”
failed post-publication audit: figure '18%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '47%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '29-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-24 · retracted article · view
“United Russia Likely Sweeps a Duma Supermajority, But the Margin Is Now in Dispute”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 30% (or 70% negated)
2026-08-24 · retracted card · view
“Julián Álvarez's Transfer Destination Is a Dead Heat, with Arsenal Surging”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-24 · retracted card · view
“Guadalajara and Cruz Azul Share a Crowded Lead in an Open Liga MX Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-24 · retracted card · view
“Mercedes Is All But Certain to Sweep the 2026 Formula One Season”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 85% (or 15% negated); taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 91% (or 9% negated)
2026-08-24 · retracted card · view
“Minnesota Holds a Narrow Edge in a Wide-Open WNBA Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-24 · retracted article · view
“Kazakhstan's Kurultai Runner-Up Race Reveals an Anxious Democracy in Practice”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-23, before publication 2026-08-24
2026-08-23 · retracted card · view
“Bitcoin Reaching $150,000 Before 2027 Remains a Remote Prospect”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'remote' requires the claim's probability in [0%,10%], but the claim prices at 66% (or 34% negated)
2026-08-23 · retracted card · view
“Kazakhstan's Kurultai Second-Place Finish Is a Dead Heat Between Auyl and Its Challengers”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'dead heat' requires the claim's probability in [45%,54%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-23 · retracted card · view
“Google's Next Gemini Pro Release Is a Coin Flip Through August”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'a coin flip' requires the claim's probability in [45%,54%], but the claim prices at 42% (or 58% negated)
2026-08-23 · retracted article · view
“Russia's Hold on Myrnohrad Looks Durable”
failed post-publication audit: past-year timeframe 'through 2025' written as if future (publication year 2026)
2026-08-22 · retracted card · view
“Situational Awareness Is Almost Certain to Keep Running Through 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 6% (or 94% negated)
2026-08-22 · retracted article · view
“Greenland Remains Greenlandic — and Almost Certainly Will”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 8% (or 92% negated)
2026-08-21 · retracted article · view
“Iran's Supreme Leadership Looks Set to Survive Into 2027”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-21 · retracted article · view
“Russia's War Grinds On With No Peace in Sight”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“Trump Posts a Moderate 180–199 Times on Truth Social This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire This Year Is Looking Increasingly Unlikely”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“Arsenal Holds a Narrow Edge in a Wide-Open Premier League Title Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is All But Certain to Post 200-Plus Times on Truth Social This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.35 (> 1)
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Likely Sits Near 39.5 on August 21”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.15 (> 1)
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Is Narrowly Converging Around 39.5”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.14 (> 1)
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Is Converging on the High 39s”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.13 (> 1)
2026-08-21 · retracted article · view
“Ralph Norman Is Closing Fast on Darline Graham in South Carolina”
failed post-publication audit: figure '47%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-21 · retracted article · view
“Ralph Norman's Surge Tightens South Carolina's Republican Senate Primary”
failed post-publication audit: figure '35%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Has Settled Near 39.8 as of August 21”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-08-21 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Has Stabilized Around 39.5”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.11 (> 1)
2026-08-21 · retracted article · view
“The US-Iran Negotiating Window Has All But Closed”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-20, before publication 2026-08-21
2026-08-20 · retracted article · view
“Oil Is Surging Toward $90, With a Spike to $115 or Beyond Now a Serious Possibility”
failed post-publication audit: figure '12 percent' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-20 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Stabilizes Near 39.5 in Late August”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-20 · retracted card · view
“Outer Banks Season 5 Is Likely to Top US Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-20 · retracted article · view
“Solana Is Likely to Reclaim Triple Digits by End of 2026”
failed post-publication audit: figure '9%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-20 · retracted article · view
“Solana Is Likely to Hit $90 This Summer, With $100 in Sight by Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: figure '10%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '18%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-20 · retracted card · view
“Outer Banks Dominates Netflix While Tires Fights for Second”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.16 (> 1)
2026-08-20 · retracted card · view
“Bernadette Wilson Takes a Narrow Lead in Alaska's Wide-Open Governor's Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-20 · retracted article · view
“Hyperliquid's Path to $80 Increasingly Favors the Bulls”
failed post-publication audit: figure '19%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-20 · retracted card · view
“MrBeast's Next Video Is Expected to Land Between 60 and 70 Million Views”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-20 · retracted article · view
“Darline Graham Is Likely to Win South Carolina's Republican Senate Primary”
failed post-publication audit: figure '30%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-20 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is Poised for a High-Volume Posting Week on Truth Social”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-20 · retracted card · view
“Alaska's Governor's Race Is Wide Open with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Edging Ahead”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-20 · retracted card · view
“Outer Banks Season 5 Is Likely to Top US Netflix This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-19 · retracted article · view
“Oil Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $77 in August — and $90 Is a Live Shot”
failed post-publication audit: figure '33 points' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-19 · retracted card · view
“Tires Season 3 Leads a Wide-Open Netflix Race for the Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.15 (> 1)
2026-08-19 · retracted article · view
“Oil Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $77 in August — and $90 Is a Live Shot”
failed post-publication audit: figure '33-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-19 · retracted card · view
“Chuck Gray Likely Wins Wyoming's At-Large Republican Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-18, before publication 2026-08-19
2026-08-19 · retracted card · view
“FL-09 Republican Primary Is a Wide-Open Four-Way Race”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-18, before publication 2026-08-19
2026-08-19 · retracted article · view
“Michael Carbonara Likely Wins the FL-22 Republican Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-18, before publication 2026-08-19
2026-08-19 · retracted article · view
“Byron Donalds Has All But Locked Up the Florida GOP Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-18, before publication 2026-08-19
2026-08-19 · retracted card · view
“Jim Schwartzel Is Likely the FL-19 Republican Nominee as Lauf Collapses”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-18, before publication 2026-08-19
2026-08-19 · retracted card · view
“Angie Nixon Will Be Florida's Democratic Senate Nominee”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-18, before publication 2026-08-19
2026-08-19 · retracted card · view
“Eric Barlow Is Poised to Win Wyoming's Republican Governor Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-18, before publication 2026-08-19
2026-08-18 · retracted article · view
“Ossoff Surges as the 2028 Democratic Race Grows More Fractured”
failed post-publication audit: figure '12%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '23%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-18 · retracted article · view
“The Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds, But the Broader Conflict Festers”
failed post-publication audit: figure '34%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-18 · retracted card · view
“Casey Askar Surges to Front of FL-22 Republican Primary, Race Still Open”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-18 · retracted article · view
“A Ukraine Ceasefire Flickers as Russia's Offensive Stalls”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-03-31, before publication 2026-08-18; past-year timeframe 'through 2025' written as if future (publication year 2026)
2026-08-18 · retracted card · view
“Russia Will Almost Certainly Not Test a Nuclear Device This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 9% (or 91% negated); expired contract: market resolved 2026-03-31, before publication 2026-08-18; taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 6% (or 94% negated)
2026-08-18 · retracted card · view
“Shohei Ohtani Is All But Certain to Win the NL MVP”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 85% (or 15% negated); taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 50% (or 50% negated)
2026-08-18 · retracted card · view
“Iran Will Almost Certainly Not Detonate a Nuclear Device This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 6% (or 94% negated); taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 4% (or 96% negated)
2026-08-18 · retracted card · view
“Bitcoin Is Likely to Dip Below $55,000 Before Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 65% (or 35% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 55% (or 45% negated)
2026-08-17 · retracted card · view
“Putin and Zelenskyy Will Almost Certainly Not Meet Before 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-17 · retracted article · view
“The 2028 Democratic Nomination Is Anyone's Race”
failed post-publication audit: figure '22%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-17 · retracted card · view
“Alina Habba Surges to Front in Wide-Open Press Secretary Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-17 · retracted card · view
“Carbonara Likely Wins Florida's 22nd District Republican Primary”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 30% (or 70% negated)
2026-08-17 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Approval Rating Sits Near 39.1 on RealClearPolitics”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.21 (> 1)
2026-08-17 · retracted article · view
“The 2028 Democratic Race Remains Wide Open as Ossoff Quietly Gains Ground”
failed post-publication audit: figure '22%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-17 · retracted article · view
“US-Iran Talks Appear Headed for the Fall, Not the Summer”
failed post-publication audit: figure '27%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-17 · retracted article · view
“Hormuz Looks Blocked Well Past September”
failed post-publication audit: figure '34%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '27%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-17 · retracted article · view
“Spain Is Virtually Certain to Stay Silent on Morocco Over Ceuta Through August”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'virtually certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 6% (or 94% negated)
2026-08-17 · retracted card · view
“Spain Is Virtually Certain to Stay Silent on Morocco Over Ceuta Through August”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'virtually certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 6% (or 94% negated)
2026-08-17 · retracted card · view
“The End of Oak Street Opens to Between $20M and $23M”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-16, before publication 2026-08-17
2026-08-16 · retracted card · view
“Lula Increasingly Favored to Win Brazil's 2026 Presidential Election”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.26 (> 1)
2026-08-16 · retracted card · view
“GTA VI Will Almost Certainly Ship Before July 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-08-16 · retracted card · view
“Claude Leads the AI Race Into Year-End, but the Field Is Tightening”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-16 · retracted card · view
“Eduardo Paes Is All But Certain to Win the Rio de Janeiro Governorship”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 90% (or 10% negated)
2026-08-16 · retracted card · view
“MrBeast Gaming's Next Video Looks Set to Land in the 10–14 Million Range”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-16 · retracted card · view
“The Odyssey Leads a Genuinely Open Best Picture Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-16 · retracted card · view
“Global Seismic Activity Is Running Hot This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.38 (> 1)
2026-08-16 · retracted card · view
“Adeleke Narrowly Favored to Hold Osun, but Oyebamiji Is Closing”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-15, before publication 2026-08-16
2026-08-15 · retracted article · view
“Iran's Blockade Ends, But the Strait Stays Dark”
failed post-publication audit: figure '34%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '27%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-15 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is on Pace for Roughly 200–219 Truth Social Posts This Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-15 · retracted card · view
“Claude Increasingly Appears Headed for Best-AI Status at Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-15 · retracted article · view
“US-Iran Nuclear Deal Hangs in the Balance After Sharp Reversal”
failed post-publication audit: figure '34%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '27%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-15 · retracted article · view
“The Bank of England Will Likely Hold Rates in September”
failed post-publication audit: figure '76%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '80%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-15 · retracted card · view
“Russia Is Likely to Strike Kyiv Again Before August 14”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-14, before publication 2026-08-15
2026-08-15 · retracted card · view
“GTA VI Is the Likely Game of the Year Favorite — but Far From Certain”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 62% (or 38% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 65% (or 35% negated)
2026-08-15 · retracted card · view
“Claude Leads the AI Race Into 2026 With ChatGPT Closing In”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-15 · retracted article · view
“A Fed Rate Hike in 2026 Is a Coin Flip — But Not Beyond”
failed post-publication audit: figure '76%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-15 · retracted card · view
“Hichilema Is Likely to Win Zambia's 2026 Presidential Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-14, before publication 2026-08-15
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“'The End of Oak Street' Opens to a Modest $20–23M Weekend”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-14 · retracted article · view
“California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Likely Fails at the Ballot Box”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 34% (or 66% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Likely Fails at the Ballot Box”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 32% (or 68% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 34% (or 66% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Google Surges to Challenge Alibaba for Second-Best AI Lab”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement This Year Remains a Long Shot”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'a long shot' requires the claim's probability in [0%,25%], but the claim prices at 50% (or 50% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“"The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Looks Softer Than Expected”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“"I Knew It, I Knew You" Appears Headed for the Billboard #2 Spot”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Katie Miller Leads a Wide-Open White House Press Secretary Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.12 (> 1)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“The Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2026”
failed post-publication audit: direction inversion: headline negates the proposition ('The Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2026') while YES on 'Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?' trades at 76%
2026-08-14 · retracted article · view
“A U.S. Invasion of Cuba in 2026 Remains a Remote Prospect”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'remote' requires the claim's probability in [0%,10%], but the claim prices at 14% (or 86% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“A U.S. Invasion of Cuba in 2026 Remains a Remote Prospect”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'remote' requires the claim's probability in [0%,10%], but the claim prices at 12% (or 88% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted article · view
“Clacton Will Draw a Crowd, but Not the One That Shocked Britain Last Time”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-13, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · retracted article · view
“Keir Starmer Is All But Certain to Serve Out the Parliament”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Clacton Is Farage's to Lose — and Almost Nobody Thinks He Will”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-13, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Keir Starmer Is All But Certain to Serve Out the Parliament”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated); taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Posting Pace This Week Leans Heavy”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Nordone's Lead in South Carolina's Republican Senate Primary Is Narrowing Fast”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · retracted article · view
“The S&P 500 Will Almost Certainly Clear 7,800 This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“The S&P 500 Is All But Certain to Reclaim 7,800 This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 94% (or 6% negated)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Alibaba Is Poised to Be the World's Second-Best AI Lab by August”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Bobby Pulido Holds a Razor-Thin Edge in TX-15”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-14 · retracted article · view
“Count Binface's Clacton Run Is Increasingly a Real Contest — For Third Place”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-13, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · retracted article · view
“Farage's Clacton Return Is All But Certain — and Count Binface May Finish Second”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-13, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Farage's Clacton Margin Is Narrowing”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-13, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Count Binface Is Poised for Second Place — and a Respectable Haul — in Clacton”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-13, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Count Binface Is Poised to Finish Second in the Clacton By-Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-13, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“The Fed's Path From July to October Has Become Genuinely Uncertain”
failed post-publication audit: identity: text "The Fed's Path From July to October Has Become Genuinely Uncertain" shares no significant word with its market 'Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)' or its cluster
2026-08-14 · retracted card · view
“Nigel Farage Will Win the Clacton By-Election”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-13, before publication 2026-08-14
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“The Fed Is Likely Done for the Year — and a Hike Is the Real Next Move”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 66% (or 34% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“The Iranian Regime Will Almost Certainly Survive Through 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 6% (or 94% negated)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Chicago White Sox Lead a Tight AL Central Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.10 (> 1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Scott Jennings and Anna Kelly Are Now Co-Frontrunners to Replace Karoline Leavitt”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 2.59 (> 1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Russia Is Unlikely to Capture Kupiansk This Year, but Kostyantynivka Is Nearly Lost”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-30, before publication 2026-08-13
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“The Fed Is Increasingly Likely to Stand Pat in October Too”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 68% (or 32% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 71% (or 29% negated)
2026-08-13 · retracted article · view
“Roy Cooper Is All But Certain to Win North Carolina's Senate Seat”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 91% (or 9% negated)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“US Equities Open Strong on August 13”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Press Secretary Race Is Wide Open as Karoline Leavitt's Exit Looms”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.20 (> 1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“My Life With the Walter Boys Leads but No Show Has a Lock on Netflix's Top Spot”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.60 (> 1)
2026-08-13 · retracted article · view
“Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '25%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Trump's Next Press Secretary Is a Wide-Open Race With Alina Habba Narrowly Ahead”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.58 (> 1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“David Crowley Is Likely to Win Wisconsin's Democratic Governor Primary by a Razor-Thin Margin”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-12, before publication 2026-08-13
2026-08-13 · retracted article · view
“Russia's Eastern Front Is Fracturing, Not Collapsing”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-30, before publication 2026-08-13
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Count Binface Is on Track for a Double-Digit Vote Share in Clacton”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-13 · retracted article · view
“Ronaldo's Wedding Guest List Is Anyone's Guess”
failed post-publication audit: figure '15%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-13 · retracted article · view
“Venezuela Is Likely to Recognize Israel by Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: figure '15%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Eric Barlow Is Likely to Win Wyoming's Republican Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.43 (> 1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“A 2026 U.S. Recession Remains a Tail Risk”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-01-31 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“A 2026 US Recession Remains a Tail Risk”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-01-31 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Hichilema Is All But Certain to Win Zambia's Presidential Election”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 90% (or 10% negated); taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-13 · retracted article · view
“WTI Crude Oil's August Rally Has Stalled Short of $85”
failed post-publication audit: figure '45%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-13 · retracted article · view
“San Antonio Leads a Wide-Open 2027 Pro Basketball Title Race”
failed post-publication audit: figure '13 percentage points' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-13 · retracted card · view
“Francesca Hong's Primary Margin Narrows to a Tighter Band”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-13
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“AOC Edges Ahead in a Genuinely Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '26 points' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Kai and Speed's Minecraft Marathon Death Count Is a Dead Heat Around 50–69”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Democrats Lean Toward Holding WI-03”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.11 (> 1)
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Core Inflation Is Headed Back to 2.5% in July”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.33 (> 1)
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“A Fed Rate Hike in 2026 Is a Coin Flip — But the September Window Is Closing”
failed post-publication audit: figure '75%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“The PQ Likely Wins Quebec, but the CAQ Is Closing Fast”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 64% (or 36% negated)
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“AfD's Absolute Majority in Sachsen-Anhalt Is a Dead Heat”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'dead heat' requires the claim's probability in [45%,54%], but the claim prices at 30% (or 70% negated)
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“US Annual Inflation Is Headed for 3.4% in July”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“David Crowley Is Now the Likely Democratic Nominee for Wisconsin Governor”
failed post-publication audit: figure 'ten points' not in the bound snapshot (±6)
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Xavier Becerra Is All But Certain to Be California's Next Governor”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 94% (or 6% negated)
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Brad Smith Likely Wins Wisconsin's Sixth District Democratic Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Al-Aqidi's MN-05 Republican Primary Lead Narrows as Nagel Surges”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Francesca Hong's Blowout Margin Looks Increasingly Unlikely”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Dalia Al-Aqidi Is Likely the MN-05 Republican Nominee”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Francesca Hong Will Win the Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Syria Surges as an Unlikely Path to Israeli Recognition Opens”
failed post-publication audit: past-year timeframe 'through 2025' written as if future (publication year 2026)
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Nordone Holds a Narrowing Lead as Norman Surges in South Carolina Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Angie Craig Surges as Peggy Flanagan's Primary Lead Narrows Sharply”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Lisa Demuth Pulls Away in Minnesota's Republican Governor Race”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Francesca Hong Has Wisconsin's Democratic Gubernatorial Primary All But Won”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted article · view
“Darline Graham Nordone Leads South Carolina's Republican Senate Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Peggy Flanagan Is Likely the Democratic Senate Nominee in Minnesota”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Lisa Demuth Is Likely to Win the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-12 · retracted card · view
“Darline Graham Nordone Edges Ahead in South Carolina's Republican Senate Primary”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-11, before publication 2026-08-12
2026-08-11 · retracted card · view
“Griekspoor Leads a Wide-Open ATP Montreal Field as Darderi Surges”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-11 · retracted card · view
“July Inflation in the US Appears Headed Slightly Higher”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-11 · retracted article · view
“Alito's Near-Term Retirement Looks Increasingly Unlikely”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-11 · retracted card · view
“Alito Is Increasingly Unlikely to Retire Before Year's End”
failed post-publication audit: 'this year' framing but the market resolves 2027-07-01 (not in 2026) — deadline overreach
2026-08-11 · retracted article · view
“SHEIN's IPO Is All But Certain Before 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 88% (or 12% negated)
2026-08-11 · retracted article · view
“Lisa Demuth Leads Minnesota's Republican Governor Race as Lindell Fades”
failed post-publication audit: figure '56%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '52%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“DeRozan's Next Move Is a Genuine Toss-Up as Washington Surges”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'toss-up' requires the claim's probability in [45%,54%], but the claim prices at 35% (or 65% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“DeRozan Likely Lands in Miami as Orlando Falls Out of the Picture”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 36% (or 64% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 46% (or 54% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“The ECB Is All But Certain to Raise Rates by September 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 91% (or 9% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“The ECB Is All But Certain to Raise Rates in September”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 90% (or 10% negated); taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 84% (or 16% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“Francesca Hong Will Be Wisconsin's Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee”
failed post-publication audit: figure '70%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“S&P 500 Looks Pinned in the 7,750 Range at Sunday's Close”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.11 (> 1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“T1 and Nongshim RedForce Are Deadlocked in a Wide-Open KeSPA Cup”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“GameStop Is Almost Certainly Not Acquiring eBay This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 17% (or 83% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“Ben Shelton Surges to Lead a Wide-Open Montreal Field”
failed post-publication audit: figure '54%' not in the bound snapshot (±1); figure '34-point' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“'Choosin' Texas' Holds a Razor-Thin Lead for US YouTube #2”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.21 (> 1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“A 2026 Hantavirus Pandemic Is Virtually Certain Not to Happen”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'virtually certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96%
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“Hong's Wisconsin Primary Blowout Is Now a Toss-Up”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“Dylan Cease Edges Ahead in a Still-Open AL Cy Young Race”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“Ukraine's War Is Grinding to No Resolution — and Command Is Shifting”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-05-31, before publication 2026-08-10; identity: text "Ukraine's War Is Grinding to No Resolution — and Command Is Shifting" shares no significant word with its market 'Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by...?' or its cluster
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“Los Angeles Leads the National League as Chicago Cubs Surge”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“JJ Wetherholt Leads NL Rookie Race as Sal Stewart Closes Fast”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“Netanyahu Will Almost Certainly Visit New York City This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“A New Crude Oil Record Looks Increasingly Remote”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'remote' requires the claim's probability in [0%,10%], but the claim prices at 12% (or 88% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“Mitch McConnell Will Almost Certainly Serve Out His Term”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 30% (or 70% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“"Choosin' Texas" and the Race for US Runner-Up Is a Dead Heat”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.13 (> 1)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“Bronny James Is Almost Certain to Stay with the Lakers”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.14 (> 1); taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated); taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 84% (or 16% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“Bronny James Is Almost Certain to Stay with the Lakers”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 83% (or 17% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Before 2028 Remains a Remote Prospect”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'remote' requires the claim's probability in [0%,10%], but the claim prices at 14% (or 86% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“"DTF St. Louis" Is All but Certain to Win Nothing at the Emmys”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“Hong Kong's August 9 Low Is a Dead Heat Between 29°C and 30°C”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-09, before publication 2026-08-10
2026-08-10 · retracted article · view
“Sung-Jae Im Leads a Genuinely Wide-Open Wyndham Field”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-09, before publication 2026-08-10
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“São Paulo's August 9 Temperature Is Likely Running Hot”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-09, before publication 2026-08-10
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“The Odyssey Is Increasingly Headed for a Strong Fourth Weekend”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-09, before publication 2026-08-10
2026-08-10 · retracted card · view
“Hong Kong Is Headed for Extreme Heat on August 9”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-09, before publication 2026-08-10
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Ryan Blaney Leads a Wide-Open Iowa Corn 350 Field”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.13 (> 1)
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“Golf Surges to the Top of Trump's Unscripted Agenda”
failed post-publication audit: figure '30%' not in the bound snapshot (±1)
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“A US-Iran Deal Is Taking Shape, But Reconstruction Money Remains a Long Shot”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'a long shot' requires the claim's probability in [0%,25%], but the claim prices at 40% (or 60% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Ohtani Leads the NL MVP Race as Crow-Armstrong Surges”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Houthi Shipping Attacks Have Paused — But Likely Resume in August”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 38% (or 62% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 27% (or 73% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Ukraine Will Almost Certainly Not Retake Crimea This Year”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 10% (or 90% negated); taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 8% (or 92% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Kai and Speed Are Likely Headed for a Brutal Death Count”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“Reza Pahlavi Is Not Returning to Iran This Year”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-06-30, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Iran Will Almost Certainly Not Target Ukraine Before October”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 6% (or 94% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Delcy Rodríguez Is All but Certain to Run Venezuela Through Year-End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated); taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“FUT Esports Sweeps GIANTX in VCT EMEA Play-Ins”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Maduro Almost Certainly Finishes 2026 in Power”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 82% (or 18% negated); taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 82% (or 18% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Jarrett Keohokalole Edges Ahead in Hawaii's First District Democratic Primary”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.11 (> 1)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Dallas Faces a Dead Heat Between Extreme Heat Outcomes on August 8”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Byron Donalds Is All But Certain to Win Florida's Republican Governor Nomination”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 94% (or 6% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“McConnell Will Almost Certainly Serve Out His Term”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 10% (or 90% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“August Unemployment Will Almost Certainly Exceed 3.7%”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 95% (or 5% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“John Brennan Is the Most Likely Federal Charge Target of 2026”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 45% (or 55% negated); taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 42% (or 58% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Mitch McConnell Will Almost Certainly Serve Out His Term”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 9% (or 91% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Crypto Market Structure Law Looks Increasingly Likely to Arrive in 2027”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 44% (or 56% negated)
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“FUT Esports Has Taken Down GIANTX in VCT EMEA Play-Ins”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“Deep Cross Gaming Forces a Full Five-Game Series Against MVK”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“Indiana Fever Appear Headed for Victory Over Chicago Sky”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“Maryville University Sweeps Contingent Esports in North American Challengers Play”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“T1 vs Hanwha Life Game 1 Is a Coin Flip for Highlight Plays”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted article · view
“Ronaldo's Inner Circle Shrinks as Wedding Guest Odds Collapse”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“CSKA Moscow Likely Scores in a Tight, Low-Scoring Affair Against Rostov”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Sporting CP Are Likely to Beat Estrela da Amadora”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Remo and Mineiro Are Deadlocked Ahead of Their August Fixture”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Krylia Sovetov vs. Baltika Second Half Is a Low-Scoring Affair”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Tottenham vs. Getafe Will Produce Goals — a Winner Is Harder to Call”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Galions Sharks vs. Lausanne-Sport Esports Is a Pure Coin Flip”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Deep Cross Gaming vs MVK Esports Game 1 Is a Pure Coin Flip”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“A Quadra Kill in Game 2 Is a Complete Coin-Flip”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“T1 vs Hanwha Life Game 1 Is a Coin Flip for Highlight Plays”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Hong Kong Hits 34°C on August 8”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Weibo Gaming vs LNG Esports Is Already Decided”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-09 · retracted card · view
“Ronaldo's Wedding Guest List Is Anyone's Guess”
failed post-publication audit: expired contract: market resolved 2026-08-08, before publication 2026-08-09
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“A SpaceX IPO Would Almost Certainly Dwarf Every Other 2026 Listing”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“MrBeast's Next Video Is Headed for a 50–70 Million View Opening Week”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.07 (> 1)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Super Typhoon Dolphin Is Almost Certain to Strike China”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Iliana Iotova Likely Wins Bulgaria's Presidential Election”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'likely' requires the claim's probability in [75%,100%], but the claim prices at 72% (or 28% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Coritiba vs. Chapecoense Will Almost Certainly Produce Goals”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“MrBeast's Next Video Looks Set to Land in the 50–60 Million Range”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.06 (> 1)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Anthropic Almost Certainly Holds the Top AI Spot Through August”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated); taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Davis Thompson Seizes the Wyndham Championship Lead Heading Into Round 3”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Steph Curry Is Almost Certain to Stay a Warrior or Retire”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 93% (or 7% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“The SAVE Act Will Almost Certainly Not Become Law”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 8% (or 92% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Niemann Is Likely to Win LIV Golf New York”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.14 (> 1)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Trump Is Posting at a Higher Clip This Week Than Last”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.08 (> 1)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“The SAVE Act Is Almost Certain to Fail, Whatever Trump Says”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 8% (or 92% negated); taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 6% (or 94% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“The US Will Almost Certainly Stay at Al Udeid Through September”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 7% (or 93% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Kawhi Leonard Is Headed Back to Toronto”
failed post-publication audit: mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.09 (> 1)
2026-08-08 · retracted opinion · view
“Iran's Hormuz Toll Booth Is Probably Closed for Business”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'probably' requires the claim's probability in [55%,100%], but the claim prices at 48% (or 52% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted opinion · view
“Oil's Floor Is Falling — and the Money Is Almost Certain of It”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 94% (or 6% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted opinion · view
“Todd Blanche Is All But Certain to Be America's Next Attorney General”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 95% (or 5% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted opinion · view
“Todd Blanche Is All But Certain to Be Trump's Next Attorney General”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 96% (or 4% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“OpenAI's Astra Model Will Almost Certainly Ship Before Year's End”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“The US Will Almost Certainly Stay at Al Udeid Through September”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 7% (or 93% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“Ethereum Has Almost Certainly Already Touched $1,900 This August”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 93% (or 7% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“Stephen Curry Will Almost Certainly Retire or Finish His Career in Golden State”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 91% (or 9% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“Xavier Becerra Is All But Certain to Win the California Governor's Race”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 94% (or 6% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“Count Binface Is Almost Certain to Finish Second in Clacton — Behind Farage”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 92% (or 8% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted article · view
“Iran's Blockade Is All But Certain to End, but the Strait Heals Slowly”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'all but certain' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 95% (or 5% negated)
2026-08-08 · retracted card · view
“Mullin Will Almost Certainly Invoke Trump on Lara Trump's Fox News Show”
failed post-publication audit: taxonomy: 'almost certainly' requires the claim's probability in [98%,100%], but the claim prices at 86% (or 14% negated)