Russia-Ukraine Diplomacy This Year Is Likely, But Slipping
Source: Polymarket market “Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?”
likely (84%)
Leading outcome
December 31 84%
Likely · Rising · B · tracked 42 days
peak 96% (7d ago) · low 75% (41d ago)
very likely → likely
4 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▼
4.5 pts
December 31
Traded 24h
$47K
$391K all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Source markets
12
12 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
December 31
84%
▼
4.5
October 31
64%
▼
6.0
October 15
30%
▼
13.5
Source markets for this story
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
Polymarket · October 1 99%
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 10%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 10%
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?
Polymarket · December 31 100% · +1.1 24h
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket · December 31 84% · -4.5 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2027 68% · -1.0 24h
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Polymarket · December 31 24%
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
Polymarket · December 31 16% · -1.0 24h
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Polymarket · No meeting before 2027 94%
Russia military action against EU country by...?
Polymarket · December 31 10% · -1.0 24h
Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?
Polymarket · No meeting by December 31, 2027 80% · +1.5 24h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 6% · -1.0 24h
Get an alert when Russia Ukraine War moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.