Ezra Frech: leaning yes (57%)Will Ezra Frech win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?
What was a coin flip is now leaning his way, but Amber Glenn's surge and twelve conviction-rung crossings in this market mean the mirror ball trophy is still genuinely up for grabs heading into the finale.
The song from The Black Ball sits atop a field that is rapidly filling in below it — a Toy Story 5 entry and a Devil Wears Prada 2 track both surging suggest the nomination slate is taking shape fast, and The Black Ball looks like its anchor.
Updated 7:08 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday
Whatever is driving public curiosity about disclosure right now, the money is deeply unmoved — nearly $71 million staked here says official confirmation before 2027 is a near-certainty not to happen, treating the whole conversation as noise rather than signal.
Updated 3:52 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $31Kvenue Polymarketgrade Ctracked 85 days
Spider-Man has surged to a coin-flip with the long-presumed frontrunner, and the broader market already prices it as the year's top-grossing film at 90% — the money has effectively flipped the narrative, with Doomsday now the challenger.
What had been dismissed as a tail risk is now the modal outcome — a collapse in expectations for anything above $25 million points to a DC entry that is struggling to generate commercial conviction well ahead of its release.
Updated 3:51 AM ET▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $21Kvenue Polymarketgrade Cresolves in 4 daysprobably not → leaning yes
What had seemed merely an unlikely outcome is now a near-certainty: the Sacha Baron Cohen revival is on track for a negligible opening weekend, suggesting the Ali G character has little remaining commercial pull with modern audiences.
Updated 9:17 PM ET▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $17Kvenue Polymarketgrade Cresolves in 3 days
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