likely (76%)Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
What was a coin flip four days ago is now a likely outcome — but a market that has crossed conviction boundaries eight times demands skepticism. The broader picture is telling: diplomatic meetings are nearly certain, yet a Zelenskyy-Putin summit before 2027 remains a 92% no, and ceasefire odds are split. Talks are coming; a deal is not.
The near-term truce is durable, but confidence drains rapidly beyond it — odds for the ceasefire surviving through the midterms have fallen sharply, and the blockade question remains genuinely unresolved, making this a pause rather than a settlement.
Bennett's surge signals the race is fragmenting further rather than consolidating — with Eizenkot recovering from an 11-day low but still unable to pull clear, Israel's post-election leadership remains genuinely unresolved.
Updated 3:00 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday
A second-round debate now looks virtually certain, and Bolsonaro's margin there is tightening — a 40% chance he wins by fewer than four points signals a genuinely competitive finish, not a coronation, even as he holds a strong overall lead.
What had been seen as probably not now reads as an open question — the sharp repricing away from a blowout victory suggests new information is compressing expectations around a solid but not commanding win.
Updated 3:01 AM ET▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $309Kvenue Polymarketgrade Ctracked 6 daysrange 57% (4d ago) – 40% (1d ago)resolves in 3 daystrending in today's newsprobably not → a coin flip2 tier changes
What had been probably not is now a genuine dead heat — but a market that has swung this sharply twice before should not be read as settled; her 89% chance of reaching the second round means the real question is who faces her there, in a fractured field where Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon together hold as much weight as she does.
Chow has shed a commanding lead built over the past three weeks, falling from near-certainty to a coin flip — Bradford's surge makes this a genuine two-person race with the outcome now impossible to call.
Updated 3:01 AM ET▼ down sharply overnight
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traded today $39Kvenue Polymarketgrade Ctracked 19 daysrange 88% (18d ago) – 51% (0d ago)resolves in 5 daystrending in today's newsleaning yes → a coin flip4 tier changes
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: leaning yes (70%)
The student-led opposition has collapsed from a near-deadlock to 30%, but a 70% favorite in a two-horse race is not a lock — the money says Vučić is the likely winner, not the inevitable one, and a 30% insurgency is still a live threat to his plurality.
What had been virtually certain is now very likely — the NDP's faint revival has cracked the consensus without seriously threatening the outcome, and Lorne Doerkson is the strong favorite to become the next Premier.
Updated 4:15 AM ET▲ up overnight
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traded today $35Kvenue Polymarketgrade Dtracked 4 daysresolves in 2 daystrending in today's news
Traffic through the strait keeps flowing — near-term transit calls are priced at 98% — but a durable resolution remains elusive, with no agreement likely and Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December priced at just 14%, leaving the world's most critical chokepoint in an uneasy, unresolved limbo.
What had been a probable non-event is now genuinely uncertain — Netanyahu drives the repricing, with his removal odds climbing even as the broader field stays volatile enough to have crossed conviction boundaries five times. No single departure looks inevitable, but the collective signal says the current roster of leaders is increasingly fragile.
Updated 2:44 PM ET▼ drifting down for days
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traded today $56Kvenue Polymarketgrade Ctracked 79 daysrange 56% (4d ago) – 32% (78d ago)trending in today's newsprobably not → a coin flip5 tier changes
Milei holds a nominal plurality but Axel Kicillof is closing, and the field behind them carries enough combined weight to deny either a clean path — a volatile market in a country where economic conditions will ultimately decide this before a single vote is cast.
Updated 2:00 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
What had been unlikely is now very unlikely — and the broader picture shows martial law priced at just 3%, confirming this is a political system under strain but not approaching rupture. With Le Pen sitting at 47% for 2027, the real French crisis remains electoral, not constitutional.
Recovering from a low set just weeks ago, Maduro's grip has reasserted itself — the collapse in Delcy Rodríguez's odds suggests an internal succession story has lost credibility, not that the opposition has gained any. The regime looks stable by default, not by legitimacy.
His advantage has eroded sharply from a near-certain position a month ago, and Puma Shen is closing — what once looked like a safe incumbency now looks like a genuine contest heading into November.
With challenger Luka Mesec stuck at roughly one-in-five, Janković's position looks durable — this race is no longer genuinely competitive unless the field consolidates fast.
Updated 8:28 PM ET▲ up overnight
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traded today $25Kvenue Polymarketgrade Ctrending in today's news
Sánchez's path to staying on has effectively closed — at 17%, his chances are a tail risk, not a live contest — but a market that has crossed conviction thresholds four times should temper any assumption that Feijóo's position is locked in.
Updated 12:01 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday
What had been leaning toward a return is now leaning against — the collapse of near-term timing windows suggests a political or security development has sharply dimmed prospects, and with conviction crossing rungs twice already, the picture remains unstable.
The pathogen remains a local and sporadic killer, not a global emergency in waiting — real money sees virtually no scenario in which it achieves sustained human-to-human spread at scale in 2026.
Updated 4:22 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
Virtually no informed money sees a leadership rupture in Beijing before 2027 — the question of Xi's removal is settled enough that its persistence as a traded market says more about geopolitical anxiety than about any real political vulnerability.
Updated 11:34 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
That people are wagering real money on how many prime ministers Britain cycles through by 2028 says everything about how normalized political instability has become — the question isn't whether Starmer survives, but whether British governance can hold a second consecutive parliament together.
Updated 7:14 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $18Kvenue Polymarketgrade Dtracked 70 days
Yulia Navalnaya leads a field so compressed — six contenders within four points of each other — that the prize is functionally unpredictable this far out. The breadth of the field reflects genuine uncertainty about which global crisis the Nobel Committee will choose to amplify.
Updated 2:12 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $16Kvenue Polymarketgrade Dtracked 10 days
Succession or removal in Pyongyang is a tail risk, not a live scenario — the regime's opacity cuts both ways, but real money sees no credible near-term path to a leadership change, with removal odds sitting at just 5%.
Updated 2:13 AM ET▼ drifting down for days
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traded today $27Kvenue Polymarketgrade Ctracked 4 daystrending in today's news
Despite persistent geopolitical tension in the strait, real money is nearly unanimous that a Chinese military invasion remains off the table through 2026 — a rare instance where the noise of coverage and the signal of capital fully agree.
Updated 12:05 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $28Kvenue Polymarketgrade Ctracked 85 days
A surge to 47% in 24 hours has flipped Eizenkot from probable loser to narrow frontrunner, and the gap between him and Netanyahu tells the whole story.