About Priced In News
Priced In News is a newspaper written from what the world is betting on.
Every story here starts with a real prediction market — a place where people trade real money on the outcome of real events, from wars and elections to the Fed's next move. Unlike a poll, or a pundit's opinion, a prediction market forces people to put their money where their mouth is. That changes what you get: not what someone says they believe, but what they're actually willing to bet on.
Our core idea: the market is the evidence. The world is the story.
We don't report market mechanics — odds, volume, percentage moves. We read what those numbers reveal about what's actually happening, and we say it plainly. A headline here doesn't say “traders think”; it says what the money is telling us, stated as a conclusion, with the confidence calibrated to match how sure the market actually is.
Where the data comes from. Every story is sourced from real, live markets on Polymarket and Kalshi — two of the largest prediction-market exchanges, where people trade real money on real-world outcomes. When a story is built from more than one market, or shows up on both exchanges, we say so.
For crypto and finance coverage, we also draw on Hyperliquid, a leveraged trading exchange, to gauge how leveraged traders are positioned on major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum — a different kind of signal than a prediction market's yes/no odds, and one we're careful to flag as such: leveraged positioning is faster-moving and less certain than an event market's probability, so we treat it with extra caution in how confidently we write about it.
How the writing works. Priced In News is AI-written. Headlines, analysis, and full articles are generated from live market data using Claude, following an editorial style built specifically for this: state the conclusion plainly, hedge only as much as the market itself hedges, and never invent facts the market doesn't support. A human — the person writing this page — sets direction, reviews the output, and steers what gets built next.
One honest caveat. Prediction markets are forecasts, not certainties. Prices reflect what traders currently believe is likely — they can be wrong, they can be thin on volume, and they update as new information arrives. Nothing on this site is financial advice.
Who's behind this. Priced In News is an independent, one-person project — built, and still being built, by Charlie. It started as an experiment in whether AI could turn prediction-market data into something worth reading, and it's evolving daily.