very likely (91%)Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by September 30, 2026?
A Gulf state that has long walked a careful line between Washington and Tehran now faces a live military threat — the ceasefire holding with Israel buys Iran operational bandwidth, not restraint, and the UAE appears to be in the crosshairs before any nuclear deal can materialize.
Updated 4:37 PM ET▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $50Kmarkets read 25venue Polymarketgrade Atrending in today's news
A rate hike in 2026 is now the base case at 66%, and the September meeting has become the likely inflection point — but the dead-even split between hike and hold means the Fed's next move is genuinely undecided, not merely uncertain.
Updated 4:24 PM ET▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.9Mmarkets read 9venue Polymarketgrade A
Cury's surge scrambles the opposition lane — with Lula favored to win ultimately and Flávio Bolsonaro almost certain for second, the contest for third now defines which challenger narrative survives into a runoff cycle.
Updated 1:24 PM ET▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $98Kmarkets read 5venue Polymarketgrade A
The collapse of near-term date contracts signals the meeting won't happen imminently, but the broader window through September 30 remains the strong consensus — a framework for normalization is taking shape, just on a slower timeline than some anticipated.
Updated 3:00 PM ET▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $76Kmarkets read 5venue Polymarketgrade B
The Kremlin's legislative lock looks durable, with rival vehicles — including the once-rising New People — losing ground, signaling that no managed-opposition party is being groomed to challenge the dominant bloc's plurality before September.
Updated 12:32 PM ET▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $67Kmarkets read 8venue Polymarketgrade A
A surge to 34% makes Alcaraz the clear favorite, but with Zverev at 24% and the field still absorbing live upsets deep in the draw, the title is his to lose rather than already decided.
Updated 5:25 PM ET▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.3Mmarkets read 63venue Polymarketgrade A
While coverage focuses on whether Democrats can flip the House, the money has already largely answered that question — the Senate is the live drama now, with Texas and Iowa making a full Democratic sweep a genuine near-even possibility.
Updated 4:37 PM ET▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $47Kmarkets read 9venue Kalshigrade Btrending in today's news
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.
The gap is closing — Chelsea's rise signals the title race is tightening, but Arsenal remains the firm favorite heading into 2026-27, with Manchester City the only other realistic challenger in what is otherwise a two-and-a-half horse race.
Updated 11:37 AM ET▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $493Kmarkets read 4venue Polymarketgrade A
France's 2027 election is genuinely anyone's to win — Le Pen's 30% plurality is a fragile front, with Philippe close behind and a fractured left still capable of forcing a hostile second round.
Updated 6:17 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
An August release is off the table, but the September dates are surging — the window has narrowed to early fall, compressing the competitive response time for every rival lab still scrambling to answer the last release.
Updated 10:11 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday
The Fed's target is not just missed — it is not even in the conversation, with prices all but certain to remain well above 2.5% and the upper tail pushing toward 3.8%, underscoring why rate hikes are back on the table.
Updated 3:00 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $59Kmarkets read 2venue Kalshigrade C
The near-term dip bets have collapsed: the money is confident Bitcoin holds above $77,000 through the end of August. The longer-range dip to $75,000 remains the consensus path, suggesting a volatile autumn ahead rather than an imminent breakdown.
Updated 5:13 PM ET– barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $353Kmarkets read 20venue Polymarketgrade Atrending in today's news
Despite the war in Ukraine and sustained escalatory pressure, direct NATO-Russia combat is still firmly in unlikely territory — the money treats it as a live but long-odds scenario, not an imminent danger.
Alina Habba's surge and Danielle Alvarez's jump signal the field is actively reshuffling — Kelly's 27% lead is a thin plurality in a race where the decision clearly hasn't been made, and the White House podium remains genuinely up for grabs.
A simultaneous drop in the $120 upside contract and a surge in the sub-$90 downside contract signals a genuine directional shift — the market is no longer confident in a clean recovery, and Ethereum's own softening adds to the picture of a broader altcoin cooldown.
Updated 3:01 PM ET▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $24Kmarkets read 3venue Polymarketgrade B
With the global demand outlook clouded and supply pressures muted, oil's ceiling is firmly in place — the commodity is a store of today's anxieties, not tomorrow's boom.
Updated 1:56 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $8Kmarkets read 7venue Polymarketgrade A
A decisive late swing has collapsed the opposition: Caroline Dubé's chances have cratered in lockstep with Gobeil's surge, leaving this race all but decided before voting begins.
Even the most permissive window — full-year closure — prices at only 18%, meaning the money treats a chokepoint shutdown as a persistent but manageable tail risk rather than a probable disruption to Red Sea trade.
Updated 9:23 AM ET– barely changed since yesterday
The northeast German state looks set to become another AfD trophy, deepening the party's grip on the former East even as a slight SPD recovery hints the margin may be less humiliating for the mainstream than feared.
The near-even split reflects genuine uncertainty about Washington's appetite for a symbolic prosecution with no obvious enforcement path — dramatic as a gesture, limited as a tool.