The Fed Is Likely to Hike Rates in December
Source: Polymarket market “Fed Decision in December?”
25 bps increase: likely (78%)
Leading outcome
25 bps increase 78%
Likely · Stable · A · tracked 56 days
peak 72% (3d ago) · low 44% (23d ago)
leaning yes → likely
4 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▲
9.5 pts
25 bps increase
Traded 24h
$332K
$1.7M all time
Resolves by
2026-12-10
Source markets
6
6 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
25 bps increase
78%
▲
9.5
No change
20%
▼
8.0
50+ bps increase
2%
▼
0.8
25 bps decrease
1%
▼
0.6
50+ bps decrease
0%
0.0
Source markets for this story
Fed Decision in October?
Polymarket · 25 bps increase 66% · +1.0 24h
Fed Decision in December?
Polymarket · 25 bps increase 78% · +9.5 24h
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
Kalshi · Above 3.0% 98%
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
Kalshi · Hike 25bps 68% · +5.0 24h
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 97% · -0.5 24h
Fed Decision in January?
Polymarket · 25 bps increase 48% · +13.5 24h
The Money Talks —
The Fed Is Probably Raising Rates in October — Don't Sleep on That 64%
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