The AI IPO beat

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Announce an IPO Before April 2027

likely (89%)

Confidence has slipped from very likely to likely over the past week, and the pullback in near-term windows suggests the timeline is stretching — but the valuation market pricing above $1.5 trillion means the question is not whether Anthropic goes public, but when.

Updated 10:51 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $57K markets read 11 venue Kalshi grade A trending in today's news a coin flip → likely AI IPO beat
Finance 1.5T+ on track to win

OpenAI Is Likely to Debut as a $1.5 Trillion Company

1.5T+: likely (78%)

An IPO at that valuation would make OpenAI one of the most valuable companies ever to go public, signaling that markets have priced in AI dominance as a near-certainty — even as AGI itself, whose achievement would theoretically justify the number, is given only a one-in-five chance of arriving before 2027.

Updated 10:51 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $16K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade C leaning yes → likely AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to IPO Before 2027

likely (84%)

A listing this year would mark the first major AI-native company to go public, but conviction has eroded sharply from a near-certain peak just four weeks ago — this is a likely call, not a settled one, and the market has already reversed course multiple times.

Updated 10:51 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $3K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (1%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 10:51 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $187 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat