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Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Most Likely to Land Between $2.0T and $2.25T

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap”

$2.0–$2.25T: unlikely (25%)
Resolved The money put $1.5–$1.75T at 18% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome $2.0–$2.25T 25% Unlikely · Stable · B · tracked 51 days peak 29% (1d ago) · low 17% (45d ago) probably not → unlikely 10 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 45.1pp
24h move ▲ 0.9 pts $2.0–$2.25T
Traded 24h $36K $1.1M all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 11 11 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

$2.0–$2.25T 25% ▲ 0.9
$2.25–$2.5T 24% ▼ 12.5
$1.75–$2.0T 20% 0.0
$2.5–$2.75T 13% ▲ 0.5
$1.5–$1.75T 6% ▲ 1.0
$2.75–$3.0T 2% 0.1

Source markets for this story

Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 82% · -2.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $2.0–$2.25T 25% · +0.9 24h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 90%
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 62% · +3.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 78% · -1.5 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75–$2.00T 44% · +1.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 96%
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 79% · -5.0 24h
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $1.5T 91%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 84%
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 50%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance odds favor 1.5T+

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Looks Set to Clear $1.5 Trillion

1.5T+: leaning yes (64%)

Anthropic is very likely to IPO first, but when OpenAI follows it is increasingly expected to arrive at a historic scale — with an $800 billion floor now priced at 83% and the $1.5 trillion threshold favored. Six conviction-rung crossings since tracking began counsel against treating this as settled.

Updated 10:11 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $9K markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to IPO Before 2027

likely (82%)

Recovering from a low hit eight days ago, conviction has crossed back into likely territory — but with seven rung crossings in this market's history, the signal is directional at best; no other company in the field comes close to Anthropic's probability of going public this year.

Updated 10:11 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $15K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance leaning SpaceX

SpaceX's IPO Crown Is Now a Coin Flip as Anthropic Closes In

SpaceX: a coin flip (47%)

What had been leaning toward SpaceX is now genuinely open — Anthropic has surged from afterthought to near-equal, and a market that has crossed conviction boundaries eleven times offers no settled answer on which AI-era giant defines the decade's landmark listing.

Updated 10:11 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $3K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (2%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 10:11 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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No change: a coin flip (52%)

What had looked likely to be a hold just weeks ago is now genuinely uncertain — a rate hike in October is nearly as probable as a pause, though the year as a whole still points strongly toward at least one hike, with December carrying the heavier weight.

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No IPO before January 2027: likely (83%)

What was virtually impossible a month ago is now the base case — the smart money has abandoned every valuation bucket and piled into the no-IPO outcome, suggesting a deal or timing obstacle has materialized. The conviction is real but the volatility here warrants caution; this market has swung dramatically before.

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10-Year Treasury Yields Are Very Likely to Hit 5.3% Before 2027

very likely (91%)

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traded today $42K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 61 days range 98% (16d ago) – 40% (21d ago) likely → very likely 15 tier changes