Financeleaning 1.5T+

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is a Coin Flip on Whether It Clears $1.5 Trillion

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap”

1.5T+: a coin flip (45%)
Resolved The money put 1.5T+ at 48% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 1.5T+ 45% A coin flip · Rising · A · tracked 64 days peak 79% (39d ago) · low 40% (62d ago) 13 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 17.5pp
24h move ▲ 0.7 pts 1.5T+
Traded 24h $23K $514K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 13 13 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

1.5T+ 45% ▲ 0.7
No IPO by December 31, 2027 25% ▼ 0.5
1.25T–1.5T 8% ▼ 4.5
1T–1.25T 5% 0.4
750B–1T 3% 0.0
<500B 2% 0.0

Source markets for this story

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 45% · +0.7 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · <$1T 22%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 94% · -0.9 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 34%
IPOs before 2027? Polymarket · Anthropic 74% · +1.5 24h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 75% · -2.6 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 91%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 97%
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 54% · +6.0 24h
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 73%
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $90B–$100B 40%
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 21%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance leaning $1.50–$1.75T

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Now a Coin Flip to Land Between $1.5 and $1.75 Trillion

$1.50–$1.75T: a coin flip (50%)

What was recently considered improbable has snapped into genuine uncertainty — a sharp 17-point move brings the $1.50–$1.75T band into contention, pulling valuation expectations down from the $2T+ territory that dominated weeks ago. An IPO looks very likely by April 2027, but the price tag is now the open question.

Updated 3:11 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $10K markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance odds favor SpaceX

SpaceX Now Favored for the Largest IPO of 2026

SpaceX: leaning yes (68%)

What was a coin flip has tilted toward SpaceX as Anthropic's chances collapsed in tandem — but with 17 conviction-rung crossings in this market's history, the lead is real and fragile at once.

Updated 3:11 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $15K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Very Likely Stay Private Through 2026

virtually impossible (2%)

Elon Musk's rocket company joining the S&P 500 this year remains a remote scenario — no IPO, no index inclusion, and thin trading volume suggests even dedicated watchers have largely stopped debating the timeline.

Updated 3:11 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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Finance leaning $1.50–$1.75T

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Now a Coin Flip to Land Between $1.5 and $1.75 Trillion

$1.50–$1.75T: a coin flip (45%)

What was recently considered improbable has snapped into genuine uncertainty — a sharp 17-point move brings the $1.50–$1.75T band into contention, pulling valuation expectations down from the $2T+ territory that dominated weeks ago. An IPO looks very likely by April 2027, but the price tag is now the open question.

Updated 11:58 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $10K markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade C tracked 34 days range 48% (29d ago) – 32% (24d ago) trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip 5 tier changes venues disagree 57.0pp AI IPO beat