Financeleaning SpaceX

SpaceX Leads the 2026 IPO Race With Anthropic Closing Fast

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?”

SpaceX: a coin flip (52%)
Resolved The money put SpaceX at 94% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome SpaceX 52% A coin flip · Rising · D · tracked 89 days peak 94% (83d ago) · low 45% (31d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 17 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 12.5 pts SpaceX
Traded 24h $6K $6.7M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-02

Where the money stands

SpaceX 52% ▼ 12.5
Anthropic 39% ▲ 10.8
OpenAI 0% 0.0
Stripe 0% 0.0
ByteDance 0% 0.0
Databricks 0% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic's IPO Is Very Likely Coming This November

very likely (94%)

What had been a coin flip is now a near-certain event: the money has converged on a November IPO with Goldman Sachs as lead underwriter and the ticker $ANT — a sudden crystallization of details that suggests the deal's structure is no longer speculative. Given this market's history of crossing conviction rungs thirteen times, one jolt could still reprice it.

Updated 12:19 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $344K markets read 24 venue Polymarket grade B a coin flip → very likely AI IPO beat
Finance

An Anthropic IPO Before 2027 Is Now Very Likely

very likely (94%)

What had been merely likely is now a high-conviction call — recovering from a nine-day low, the signal points to a public offering before year-end, though a market that has crossed conviction rungs nine times demands the caveat that this reading can shift fast.

Updated 12:19 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $10K venue Polymarket grade D likely → very likely AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Very Likely Stay Private Through 2026

virtually impossible (2%)

Elon Musk's rocket company joining the S&P 500 this year remains a remote scenario — no IPO, no index inclusion, and thin trading volume suggests even dedicated watchers have largely stopped debating the timeline.

Updated 12:19 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance

Anthropic's IPO Is Very Likely Coming This November

very likely (96%)

What had been a coin flip is now a near-certain event: the money has converged on a November IPO with Goldman Sachs as lead underwriter and the ticker $ANT — a sudden crystallization of details that suggests the deal's structure is no longer speculative. Given this market's history of crossing conviction rungs thirteen times, one jolt could still reprice it.

Updated 9:53 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $291K markets read 24 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 89 days range 96% (52d ago) – 62% (86d ago) a coin flip → very likely 13 tier changes venues disagree 65.4pp AI IPO beat
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OpenAI's Next Millennium Prize Claim Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (52%)

What had been a leaning-yes proposition has collapsed into genuine uncertainty — reflecting how volatile confidence in AI's mathematical frontier actually is, and revealing that real money finds it nearly as plausible as not that the most credentialed problems in mathematics remain out of reach through 2027.

Updated 1:13 AM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $40K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 47 days range 93% (45d ago) – 46% (11d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 10 tier changes
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WTI Crude Oil Is Very Likely to Touch $100 in November

very likely (91%)

Oil's trajectory toward triple digits now looks locked in through year-end, with the related markets confirming prices are already pressing near that level in October — the only real question is how far above $100 the move extends.

Updated 10:42 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $31K markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A