The Forecast Ledger
Every market we covered that has since closed, with the probability we published. This is the raw material of calibration — when we said 80%, how often was the money right? The ledger fills as markets resolve; scoring and calibration charts appear once enough history accumulates.
200 resolved markets in Finance · average publication probability 73.5%
By conviction — Virtually certain: 90 · Very likely: 20 · Likely: 16 · Leaning yes: 23 · A coin flip: 5 · Probably not: 15 · Unlikely: 16 · Very unlikely: 10 · Virtually impossible: 5
By quality — A: 17 · B: 33 · C: 98 · D: 49
Gold Is Likely to Slip in the Next Quarter-Hour
Market closed · Kalshi
XRP Is Likely to Hold Above $1.40 Through September
Market closed · Kalshi
Gold Is Very Likely to Fall From Here in the Next Quarter-Hour
Market closed · Kalshi
Diesel and Gas Prices Remain Well Above Recent Floor Levels
Market closed · Kalshi
Gold Is Likely to Tick Higher in the Next Quarter-Hour
Market closed · Kalshi
Ethos's Public Sale Has Already Surpassed $2.5 Million in Commitments
Market closed · Polymarket
EV Commodity Prices Are Very Likely to Stay Well Above Current Baseline Through September
Market closed · Kalshi
The S&P 500 Closes Above $765 on September 2
Market closed · Polymarket
Google's Next Gemini Flash Model Arrives in September
Market closed · Polymarket
Gold Likely Ticks Higher in the Next Quarter-Hour
Market closed · Kalshi
The Bank of Canada Will Hold Rates in September
Market closed · Polymarket
US Crude Reserves Are Likely to Fall to 280M Barrels by Late September
Market closed · Polymarket
The ECB Will Raise Rates in September
Market closed · Polymarket
Russia's Central Bank Leans Toward Holding Rates in September
Market closed · Polymarket
August Job Creation Will Narrowly Avoid Outright Contraction
Market closed · Kalshi
Bitcoin Is Likely Ticking Higher in the Next Fifteen Minutes
Market closed · Kalshi
Waymo Will Operate in Tampa This Year, with San Diego Surging Into Near-Certainty
Market closed · Kalshi
The S&P 500 Closed Lower on September 1
Market closed · Polymarket
EV Commodity Prices Are Firmly Elevated Heading Into September
Market closed · Kalshi
OpenAI Is Likely Not Going Public This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
California Gas Prices Are Narrowly Favored to Top $6.20 by Year-End
Market closed · Kalshi
Shein's IPO Valuation Is Poised to Clear 200 Billion HKD
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Diesel Prices Hold Well Above $5.55 on September 1
Market closed · Kalshi
Gold Is Likely Falling in the Next Fifteen Minutes
Market closed · Kalshi
EV Commodity Prices Are All But Certain to Stay Elevated Through August
Market closed · Kalshi
DOGE Is Unlikely to Clear $0.10 in August
Market closed · Kalshi
Gold Is Falling in the Next 15 Minutes
Market closed · Kalshi
Anthropic Has the Best AI Model Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
China's 2026 GDP Growth Is Likely to Land Between 4% and 5%
Market closed · Polymarket
A US-Canada Tariff Deal This Year Is a Coin Flip, Tilting Toward Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Google's Gemini Pro Refresh Is Likely Dead Before October
Market closed · Polymarket
Discord's IPO Valuation Is a Wide-Open Question, with $8–11B Leading a Fractured Field
Market closed · Polymarket
Oil Is Likely Stuck Below $83 Through August
Market closed · Kalshi
Bitcoin Is Headed for a Rough August Close
Market closed · Kalshi
GPT-6 Increasingly Appears Headed for a 2026 Release
Market closed · Polymarket
Apple Will Release a Foldable iPhone Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
WTI Crude Is Firmly Above $79 Through Late August, but $85 Is Likely Out of Reach
Market closed · Polymarket
EV Commodity Prices Remain Elevated Through Late August
Market closed · Kalshi
The S&P 500 Closed Down on August 28
Market closed · Polymarket
Gold and Silver Are Surging, With Further Gains Likely Imminent
Market closed · Kalshi
Oil Surges — WTI Prices Near $83 on August 28
Market closed · Kalshi
US Inflation Will Stay Above 2.6% Through August
Market closed · Kalshi
Ethereum's Path to $4,000 Looks More Distant Than Ever
Market closed · Polymarket
Bitcoin Is Above $78,000 on August 31
Market closed · Polymarket
Jio Platforms' IPO Increasingly Looks Like a Late-2026 Event, If It Happens at All
Market closed · Polymarket
Moonshot All But Locks Up Second Place Among Chinese AI Firms Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
HEEBOO's Public Sale Has Collapsed Well Short of Its Targets
Market closed · Polymarket
Gold's Short-Term Momentum Is Fading, and $4,700 Is Slipping Away
Market closed · Kalshi
Google's Next Gemini Pro Model Leans Toward an October Release
Market closed · Polymarket
Gold Will Not Hit $4,587.61 in the Next 15 Minutes
Market closed · Kalshi
XRP Increasingly Favored to Tick Higher in the Next 15 Minutes
Market closed · Kalshi
EV Commodity Prices Are Firmly Elevated Through August 26
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Likely Not Rename Lake Ontario This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Urban Outfitters Will Almost Certainly Cite Tariffs This Earnings Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Market closed · Polymarket
The S&P 500 Holds Well Above Bear-Market Territory Through Late August
Market closed · Polymarket
Gold Is Effectively Frozen Above $4,457 Into the Close
Market closed · Kalshi
Anthropic Likely Holds the AI Agent Lead Through September
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Is Comfortably Above $1.20 but the $1.40 Level Is Now in Doubt
Market closed · Polymarket
Eurozone GDP Growth in Q3 Increasingly Points to a Solid Recovery
Market closed · Polymarket
Zoom's Earnings Call Will Be an AI Pitch, Wrapped in Enterprise Language
Market closed · Kalshi
OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is a Dead Heat Around the $1.5 Trillion Mark
Market closed · Polymarket
Texas Grid Peak Demand Records Look Safe This Year
Market closed · Kalshi
NVIDIA Will Beat Quarterly Earnings
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Is Holding Above $1.30 and Likely Pushing Toward $1.60
Market closed · Polymarket
China's Second AI Tier Is Wide Open as Moonshot Falters
Market closed · Polymarket
Diesel and Gas Prices Stay Well Above Recent Benchmarks Through Late August
Market closed · Kalshi
Washington State's Aerospace Workforce Will Exceed 80,000 Jobs in 2026
Market closed · Kalshi
Gemini 4.0 Is Likely Arriving Before December
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Holds Comfortably Above $1 Today, With a Dip to $1.40 Increasingly Likely This Month
Market closed · Kalshi
Solana Is Virtually Certain to Stay Well Above $40 Through Late August
Market closed · Polymarket
Washington's Tech and Professional Sector Holds Well Above 250,000 Jobs Through 2026
Market closed · Kalshi
Gold Is Increasingly Headed Higher, With $4,700 Now a Live Target
Market closed · Kalshi
MetaMask's Token Launch Is Headed for a Disappointing Debut
Market closed · Polymarket
A Mythos-Class AI Model Is Likely Arriving Before October
Market closed · Polymarket
A 2026 Fed Rate Hike Remains Too Close to Call
Market closed · Polymarket
Hormuz Traffic Normalization by Year-End Is a Coin Flip
Market closed · Polymarket
A Skin Cancer Vaccine Regulatory Filing Is Likely Submitted by Mid-2027
Market closed · Polymarket
Bitcoin Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $60,000 Through Late August
Market closed · Polymarket
The Fed Will Hike in September but Likely Stops at 3.75%
Market closed · Kalshi
Aligned Layer Launches Above $100M Valuation but Falls Well Short of $200M
Market closed · Polymarket
Ethereum Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $1,400 Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
Ethereum Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $1,400, With $2,000 Now a Live Target
Market closed · Polymarket
Oil Is Surging — a $90 Print This Month Is Now a Real Possibility
Market closed · Kalshi
Bitcoin Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $52,000 by August 2026, With $66,000 Now in Play
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Is Firmly Above $1.00 and a Run at $1.40 Is Now in Play
Market closed · Polymarket
A Skin Cancer Vaccine Increasingly Appears Headed for FDA Approval by 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Is Firmly Above $1.10 Heading Into Late August
Market closed · Polymarket
EV Commodity Prices Are Virtually Certain to Hold Well Above Baseline by August
Market closed · Kalshi
Felix Protocol's Launch Valuation Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Polymarket
Austin Home Values Are Likely Still Sliding Toward a Sub-$446K Floor
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Likely Strike No New Trade Deal with Any Major Partner This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
John Deere's Next Earnings Call Will Almost Certainly Feature Tariffs
Market closed · Kalshi
Anthropic Is Likely to Go Public Before End of 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Surges but a Return Above $1.20 This Month Remains Unlikely
Market closed · Kalshi
A 2027 Recession Looks Increasingly Unlikely
Market closed · Kalshi
Ethereum Has Crossed $2,250 This August
Market closed · Kalshi
Printr's Launch Valuation Is Deeply Uncertain — No Target Commands Conviction
Market closed · Polymarket
Gold Is Likely to Hit $4,500 This Month
Market closed · Kalshi
Target's Next Earnings Call Will Almost Certainly Cover Beauty and Target Plus
Market closed · Kalshi
XRP Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $1.00 by Mid-August
Market closed · Polymarket
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Will Hold Above 4.55% Through Mid-August
Market closed · Kalshi
Diesel and Gas Prices Hold Well Above Key Thresholds
Market closed · Kalshi
Multipli's Public Sale Will Likely Fall Well Short of $1 Million
Market closed · Polymarket
The US Economy Will Grow in Q3 2026
Market closed · Kalshi
DeepSeek Leads the Field Most Likely to Be Added to the Chinese Military Companies List
Market closed · Polymarket
Ethereum Is Comfortably Above $1,800 — but the $1,900 Ceiling Is in Play
Market closed · Polymarket
OpenAI Will Likely Not Go Public This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Diesel and Gas Prices Remain Firmly Elevated Tomorrow
Market closed · Kalshi
The Fed Is Likely to Hike Before 2028
Market closed · Kalshi
Silver Also Likely Heads Lower in the Near Term, Alongside Crypto Weakness
Market closed · Kalshi
Gold Is Likely to Tick Higher in the Next Fifteen Minutes
Market closed · Kalshi
XRP Is Well Above $1.00 and Climbing
Market closed · Polymarket
EV Commodity Prices Are Firmly Elevated Today
Market closed · Kalshi
The Pentagon Blacklist Is a Dead Heat — Baidu Leads, but No Company Is Safe
Market closed · Polymarket
Variational's Token Launch This Year Is a Coin Flip
Market closed · Polymarket
Diesel Stays Well Above $5.40 Tomorrow
Market closed · Kalshi
OpenAI's IPO Valuation Looks Set to Exceed Early Estimates
Market closed · Polymarket
Ethereum Is Firmly Above $1,800 — but $1,900 Remains a Coin Flip
Market closed · Kalshi
Ethereum Is Firmly Settled in the $1,800–$1,900 Range
Market closed · Polymarket
The Fed Holds Rates Flat All Year, Skipping Even a Single Hike
Market closed · Polymarket
AI Will Almost Certainly Crack Another Frontier Math Problem This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
WTI Crude Is Surging — and May Test $85 in August
Market closed · Kalshi
Ethereum Is Locked Into the $1,850–$1,890 Band on August 15
Market closed · Kalshi
NVIDIA Ends August as the World's Most Valuable Company
Market closed · Polymarket
Bitcoin Enters 2027 Most Likely in the $60,000–$75,000 Range
Market closed · Kalshi
Ethereum Is Firmly Above $1,800 — and Likely Stays There Through Mid-August
Market closed · Polymarket
Zcash Likely Stays Below $450 Through August
Market closed · Kalshi
Ink's Launch Valuation Increasingly Looks to Fall Below $100M
Market closed · Polymarket
Tempo Is Unlikely to Launch a Token Before 2028
Market closed · Polymarket
Japan's Economy Looks Set to Recover to Moderate Growth in Q2
Market closed · Polymarket
Natural Gas Is Likely to Top $4.50 Before Year-End
Market closed · Kalshi
Wildberries Is Likely to Survive Through 2026 Without a Bankruptcy Filing
Market closed · Polymarket
The Bank of England Will Hold Rates in September
Market closed · Polymarket
EV Commodity Prices Are Running Well Above Baseline This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
The Clarity Act Will Likely Not Become Law in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Wide Open, With a Mega-Cap Outcome Leading
Market closed · Polymarket
Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Anyone's Guess
Market closed · Polymarket
OpenAI Leads a Fragmented AI Race With No Clear Winner in Sight
Market closed · Polymarket
EV Commodity Prices Remain Elevated Well Above Baseline
Market closed · Kalshi
Bitcoin's Next All-Time High Has No Clear Timeline
Market closed · Polymarket
WTI Crude Is Firmly Above $80, but a Run to $82 Has Collapsed
Market closed · Polymarket
Anthropic Increasingly Appears Headed for AI Model Supremacy at Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Robinhood's Customer Base Will Surpass 28 Million
Market closed · Kalshi
Google Will Likely Release Gemini 3.5 Pro Before August 31
Market closed · Kalshi
Oil Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $75 — but a Spike to $85 Is Fading Fast
Market closed · Kalshi
Ethereum Has Stabilized Well Above $1,800 But a $1,900 Test Is Fading
Market closed · Polymarket
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Locked Above 4.60% Through Mid-August
Market closed · Kalshi
The Next Grok Model Will Be Competitive at the Top of the AI Benchmark Leaderboard
Market closed · Polymarket
Rivian Is Set for a Strong Q3 Delivery Surge
Market closed · Kalshi
Diesel and Gas Prices Hold Well Above Recent Thresholds
Market closed · Kalshi
Gold Looks Unlikely to Reach $4,450 This Week but Holds Well Above $4,215
Market closed · Kalshi
Gold Is Holding Firmly Above $4,196 — and $4,500 Is Now in Play
Market closed · Kalshi
WTI Crude Oil Has Surged Well Above $82 on August 12
Market closed · Kalshi
Ethereum Is Comfortably Above $1,800 on August 12
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Has Almost Certainly Broken Through $1.00
Market closed · Polymarket
Diesel Prices Are Well Above $5.27 Today
Market closed · Kalshi
Anthropic's IPO Path This Year Has Narrowed Sharply
Market closed · Polymarket
Australia's Central Bank Will Likely Hold Rates in September
Market closed · Kalshi
CAVA Will Almost Certainly Surpass 470 Restaurants in Q2
Market closed · Kalshi
The S&P 500 Opens Higher on August 11 but Closes Down on the Day
Market closed · Polymarket
The Bank of Japan's October Rate Decision Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Extended Will Likely Launch Its Token Before Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Holds Well Above $1.00 but a Dip to That Level Is Now Near-Certain
Market closed · Polymarket
China's Central Bank Likely Holds Rates Through September
Market closed · Polymarket
Australia's Central Bank Will Hold Rates in August
Market closed · Polymarket
Diesel Stays Above $5.25 Tomorrow
Market closed · Kalshi
EV Commodity Prices Remain Deeply Elevated
Market closed · Kalshi
EV Commodity Prices Are Elevated, but the Ceiling Is Cracking
Market closed · Kalshi
July Core Inflation Looks Anchored at 0.2%
Market closed · Polymarket
Hims & Hers Will Talk Testosterone — and Much Else Besides
Market closed · Kalshi
Variational Is Poised to Launch Above a $100M Valuation
Market closed · Polymarket
Eurozone Inflation Is Increasingly Headed Above 3% for 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Alibaba Leads a Wide-Open Race for Third-Best AI Model by September
Market closed · Polymarket
The S&P 500 Closed Solidly Higher on August 10
Market closed · Polymarket
NVIDIA Is Likely to End September as the World's Most Valuable Company
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Holds Firm Above $1, With a Dip to $1.00 Still a Real Risk
Market closed · Kalshi
Bitcoin's Path to $66,000 This Week Is a Coin Flip
Market closed · Polymarket
Crude Oil Will Not Hit a New All-Time High This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Diesel Prices Are Above $5.26 Tomorrow
Market closed · Kalshi
Claude Opus Will Not Score 55% or Higher on Humanity's Last Exam
Market closed · Polymarket
XRP Has Already Cleared Its Near-Term Floor
Market closed · Kalshi
XRP Is Comfortably Above $1.00 Through August 9, With a Dip Still in Play
Market closed · Polymarket
WTI Crude Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $69 Through August 10
Market closed · Kalshi
OpenAI's Astra Model Is Likely Shipping by October
Market closed · Polymarket
Amazon Credit Card Spending Is Set for a Strong August
Market closed · Kalshi
Bank of Mexico Is Likely to Hold Rates in September
Market closed · Kalshi
XRP Is Virtually Certain to Hold Above $0.60 Through Mid-August
Market closed · Polymarket
Diesel Prices Are Surging Well Above Last Week's Benchmarks
Market closed · Kalshi
US Growth in 2026 Is Increasingly Tilting Toward the Low Side
Market closed · Kalshi
US Gas Prices Are Holding Above $4.00 Tomorrow
Market closed · Kalshi
BNB Increasingly Looks Stuck Below $550 Through August
Market closed · Kalshi
Anthropic Likely Holds the AI Crown Through September
Market closed · Polymarket
Bitcoin Increasingly Favored to Close Higher on August 8
Market closed · Polymarket
Solana Is Trading Well Above $33 Today
Market closed · Kalshi
NVIDIA Is Favored to End 2026 as the World's Largest Company
Market closed · Polymarket
Alibaba Holds China's AI Crown Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
Google's Next Gemini Pro Release Is a Coin Flip Through August
Market closed · Polymarket