The Forecast Ledger
Every market we covered that has since closed, with the probability we published. This is the raw material of calibration — when we said 80%, how often was the money right? The ledger fills as markets resolve; scoring and calibration charts appear once enough history accumulates.
123 resolved markets in Arts / Culture · average publication probability 74.9%
By conviction — Virtually certain: 35 · Very likely: 26 · Likely: 16 · Leaning yes: 18 · A coin flip: 9 · Probably not: 7 · Unlikely: 9 · Very unlikely: 1 · Virtually impossible: 2
By quality — A: 3 · B: 3 · C: 53 · D: 18
MrBeast Gaming's Next Video Will Likely Fall Below 38 Million Views
Market closed · Polymarket
PRIMA by ADÉLA Is Virtually Certain to Top 2 Million First-Week Streams
Market closed · Kalshi
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Appears Headed for a $940–950M Domestic Gross
Market closed · Polymarket
GTA VI Extended Look Dominates Netflix This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Rick Devens Is the Slight Favorite for Week 8 Elimination
Market closed · Kalshi
Taylor Hanson Is All but Certain to Join Dancing with the Stars Season 35
Market closed · Kalshi
Taylor Swift Will Dominate August Streaming by a Wide Margin
Market closed · Kalshi
Alex Warren's 'Wildchild' Will Likely Debut Between 70k and 90k Copies
Market closed · Polymarket
Big Brother Season 28's Second-Place Finish Is Anyone's Game
Market closed · Polymarket
Jon Rahm Narrowly Leads a Wide-Open Field for Trump's August Praise
Market closed · Polymarket
Avengers: Secret Wars Delay Is Now the Slightly Likelier Outcome
Market closed · Polymarket
The Odyssey Lands Solidly in Its Seventh Weekend
Market closed · Polymarket
MrBeast's Next Video Is Virtually Certain to Pull 75–76 Million Views in Week One
Market closed · Polymarket
"The Dog Stars" Is Headed for a Soft Opening Weekend
Market closed · Polymarket
Slime Language 3 Will Feature an Unusually Deep Roster of Names
Market closed · Kalshi
Hollywood Is Set for a Bumper Q4, with at Least 60 Wide Releases Now Likely
Market closed · Kalshi
'Death of the Pastor's Wife' Is Likely This Week's Top Netflix Show
Market closed · Kalshi
Nene Royal Now Leads America's Got Talent Season 21
Market closed · Kalshi
The Dog Stars Is Virtually Certain to Clear the Critical Threshold — Nothing More
Market closed · Kalshi
Bonnaroo 2027 Has No Frontrunner — The Lineup Is Anyone's Guess
Market closed · Kalshi
Rod Wave Is Likely to Score a Number-One Album This Year
Market closed · Kalshi
Lindsay Clancy Is Unlikely to Be Convicted of Murder
Market closed · Polymarket
Heroes Is Likely to Top NBC's Attention Rankings on August 27
Market closed · Kalshi
Shadowrocket's Grip on the App Store Top Spot Is Slipping
Market closed · Polymarket
Morgan Wallen Is Likely to Dominate Billboard in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
President Curtis Will Go to Hell — and Say So
Market closed · Polymarket
The Mentalist and CBS's August Attention Race Are Too Close to Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Lioness Is Poised to Lead Paramount+ Again on August 27
Market closed · Kalshi
MrBeast's Latest Video Has Locked In Around 58–59 Million Views by Day Four
Market closed · Polymarket
MrBeast's Next Video Will Land Between 60 and 70 Million First-Week Views
Market closed · Polymarket
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Is Likely the Most-Watched Movie on August 26
Market closed · Kalshi
Furious Increasingly Favored to Top Hulu on August 26
Market closed · Kalshi
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Will Gross Between $800M and $900M Domestically
Market closed · Polymarket
Rogan's Next Episode Will Feature Tesla, Aliens, and the Full Usual Lexicon
Market closed · Polymarket
GTA 6's Extended Look Will Run Well Beyond Three Minutes
Market closed · Polymarket
A New GTA VI Trailer Before October Is Increasingly in Doubt
Market closed · Kalshi
BE HER and a Tight Pack of Tracks Are All But Certain to Own the Hot 100 Top 10 in Early September
Market closed · Kalshi
The New Insidious Film Will Clear the Bar — but Likely Not Much More
Market closed · Kalshi
Mutiny Is Likely a Below-Average Film, Though Not a Total Disaster
Market closed · Kalshi
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's Domestic Haul by August 31 Is a Dead Heat Around $900M
Market closed · Polymarket
Kai and Speed Completed Their Gaming Gauntlet in Under 12 Hours
Market closed · Polymarket
Zohran Mamdani Leads a Wide-Open Race for Time's 2026 Person of the Year
Market closed · Kalshi
Outer Banks Dominates Netflix While Tires Fights for Second
Market closed · Kalshi
Dua Lipa Leads Coachella 2027 as Radiohead Surges Into Contention
Market closed · Kalshi
Outer Banks Season 5 Is Likely to Top US Netflix This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Now Favors to Win Outstanding Variety Series
Market closed · Kalshi
Grand Theft Auto VI Is the Favorite for 2026 Game of the Year
Market closed · Kalshi
Kamu Kirk Narrowly Faces Elimination from Big Brother This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
Avengers: Doomsday Appears Headed for the Second-Biggest Opening of 2026, with Spider-Man Closing In
Market closed · Polymarket
Phoebe Bridgers's Lost Weekend Is Having a Blockbuster Debut Week
Market closed · Kalshi
Starship Flight 14 Will Launch Before October's End
Market closed · Polymarket
Dai Dai Is Likely to Dominate YouTube's Global Music Chart on August 17
Market closed · Kalshi
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie Is Likely to Open Between $20M and $25M
Market closed · Polymarket
Arthur The King Narrowly Edges Into the #2 Netflix Movie Spot
Market closed · Kalshi
Avengers: Doomsday Is Shaping Up as a Multiverse All-Star Reunion
Market closed · Kalshi
Bad Bunny Is Poised to Top Spotify Again in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
The Brink of War Is Poised to Be a Certified Fresh Film
Market closed · Kalshi
'My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3' Is Likely This Week's Top US Netflix Show
Market closed · Polymarket
"The End of Oak Street" Is Headed for a Modest $17–20M Opening Weekend
Market closed · Polymarket
'Tires: Season 3' Is Poised to Claim the #2 Spot on Netflix This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Musk Is Likely to Post Around 200 Tweets Next Week
Market closed · Polymarket
MrBeast's Latest Video Hits 72–73 Million Views by Day Six
Market closed · Polymarket
My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 Is Likely This Week's Top US Netflix Show
Market closed · Kalshi
Magic Is the Slight Favorite to Eliminate Kai or Speed — but Nothing Is Settled
Market closed · Polymarket
Haley Thogmartin Narrowly Leads Big Brother's Week 5 Elimination Race
Market closed · Kalshi
The Last House Will Top US Netflix Movies This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
Young Thug Is Virtually Certain to Appear on Trippie Red's Next Album
Market closed · Kalshi
Dai Dai Is Likely Dominating YouTube's Global Music Chart
Market closed · Kalshi
Musk's Posting Rate This Week Is Running Hot
Market closed · Polymarket
Kai and Speed Are Probably Dying Less Than Anyone Expected
Market closed · Polymarket
Elon Musk Will Almost Certainly End 2026 as the World's Richest Person
Market closed · Polymarket
'Choosin' Texas' Is Likely Locked In as YouTube's US Runner-Up
Market closed · Kalshi
Dai Dai Is Likely to Top the Global YouTube Music Chart on August 11
Market closed · Kalshi
"Dai Dai" Is Likely Atop YouTube's Global Music Chart on August 10
Market closed · Kalshi
MrBeast's Next Video Is Likely to Open Between 60 and 70 Million Views
Market closed · Polymarket
Petal's Debut Album Is Certain to Cross 200K First-Week Units
Market closed · Kalshi
MrBeast Will Almost Certainly Say
Market closed · Kalshi
"The Idaho Murders" Is All but Certain to Top US Netflix This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
'The Odyssey' Fourth Weekend Box Office Is a Dead Heat Between $30–32M and Above $32M
Market closed · Polymarket
Betty Gilpin Edges Ahead in a Suddenly Scrambled Emmy Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Is Poised to Lead the 2026 Box Office
Market closed · Polymarket
'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' Is All But Certain to Top Global Netflix This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
'My Life with the Walter Boys: Season 3' Is All but Certain to Hit #2 on Netflix This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump's Friday Roundtable Was a Scripted Tour of Strategic Priorities
Market closed · Polymarket
The Odyssey Leads the Best Picture Race but the Field Is Closing
Market closed · Polymarket
Musk Is Posting Around 180–199 Tweets This Week, No More
Market closed · Polymarket
The Last House Will Top US Netflix This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
'The Pitt' Emmy Haul Is a Dead Heat Between Modest and Strong
Market closed · Polymarket
Ice Cream Man Will Score Above 25 on Rotten Tomatoes
Market closed · Kalshi
Tobey Maguire's Spider-Man Is Likely in Avengers: Doomsday
Market closed · Polymarket
Super Troopers 3 Is Likely to Score Above 30 on Rotten Tomatoes
Market closed · Kalshi
Drake Is Surging Past 12.5M Daily Views This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
The Odyssey Leads the Best Picture Race but Is Losing Ground
Market closed · Kalshi
The Odyssey Is Narrowly on Track for a $550–570M Domestic Finish
Market closed · Polymarket
GTA VI Will Almost Certainly Launch Before July 2027
Market closed · Kalshi
Ariana Grande's 'petal' Is Virtually Certain to Be a Commercial Juggernaut in Its First Week
Market closed · Kalshi
Sofia Increasingly Leads the Eurovision 2027 Host Race but Burgas Is Closing In
Market closed · Polymarket
Callum Turner Leads a Wide-Open Race to Be the Next James Bond
Market closed · Kalshi
Barbaadi Is Likely to Hold the YouTube Global Runner-Up Spot on August 5
Market closed · Kalshi
"Beef" Is Headed for a Meaningful Emmy Night
Market closed · Polymarket
Taylor Swift Will Surpass 14.5 Million Daily Views This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
Rogan's Next Episode Will Be Heavy on "People"
Market closed · Polymarket
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Is Poised to Top the 2026 Box Office
Market closed · Polymarket
72 Hours Is Poised to Top the Streaming Charts for the Week
Market closed · Kalshi
Dai Dai Is Likely to Hold the Top Spot on YouTube's Weekly Chart
Market closed · Kalshi
Dee Valladares Leads Big Brother Season 28 in a Wide-Open Field
Market closed · Kalshi
Musk Posted Roughly 220–239 Tweets This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
"One Night Only" Is Headed for a Middling Critical Reception
Market closed · Kalshi
The Second Coming Does Not Happen Before 2027
Market closed · Polymarket
Ransom Canyon: Season 2 Is All But Certain to Be Netflix's #2 Show This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
America's Most-Googled Person of 2026 Is Anyone's Guess
Market closed · Polymarket
Hacks Is Headed for a Strong Emmy Night
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Publicly Insult Someone This August
Market closed · Polymarket
2026's Most-Googled TV Show Is Wide Open — Euphoria Leads a Fractured Field
Market closed · Polymarket
Big Brother Season 28's Runner-Up Spot Is Genuinely Up for Grabs
Market closed · Kalshi
Netflix's Top Show This Week Is Virtually Certain to Clear 18 Million Views
Market closed · Kalshi
The Best Actress Race Is Wide Open as Julianne Moore Fades
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
The Odyssey Leads a Wide-Open Race for the Year's Most-Searched Film
Market closed · Polymarket
Ariana Grande Is Virtually Certain to Crack 15M Daily Views in August
Market closed · Kalshi
Google's Most-Searched Person of 2026 Is Anyone's Guess
Market closed · Kalshi