The Forecast Ledger

Every market we covered that has since closed, with the probability we published, and — once the venue has settled it — what actually happened. When we said 80%, how often was the money right?

Brier score
0.154 lower is better · a coin flip scores 0.250
Settled markets scored
108
Skill vs. base rate
+38% Brier improvement over always guessing the 54% base rate
When we saidnwe meantit happened
Very likely (90–97%) 22 93.2% 81.8%
Likely (75–89%) 23 82.0% 91.3%
Leaning yes (55–74%) 21 63.5% 66.7%
A coin flip (45–54%) 15 50.2% 13.3%
Probably not (26–44%) 12 35.1% 16.7%
Unlikely (11–25%) 4 22.9% 0.0%
Very unlikely (3–10%) 11 9.9% 9.1%

Excluded from the headline score (724 settled markets): 637 tracked less than 24h · 87 published outside 2–98%. Scored naively over every settled market the Brier would read 0.065 on n=817 — the headline number above is the honest one.

Green bar: how often the outcome we published actually happened; black tick: the probability we published. A well-calibrated paper's bar ends at its tick. Only forecasts count: markets the venue has settled, tracked at least a day, published inside 2–98%, and above the coverage bar; 57 markets that left our coverage while still open are excluded.

200 resolved markets in Sports · average publication probability 84.8% · avg. 3 days tracked

By conviction — Virtually certain: 125 · Very likely: 12 · Likely: 22 · Leaning yes: 11 · A coin flip: 10 · Probably not: 8 · Unlikely: 2 · Very unlikely: 2 · Virtually impossible: 8

By quality — A: 18 · B: 21 · C: 70 · D: 4

Los Angeles Dodgers 62% Leaning yes A ✗ Milwaukee Brewers 2026-10-09 Sports

The Dodgers Now Lean Toward the NL Pennant as a Tampa Bay Matchup Takes Shape

What was a coin flip three days ago has shifted — the Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays are now the respective league favorites, and a Dodgers-Rays World Series has become the market's modal expectation, with the Dodgers' overall championship odds climbing alongside.

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 62 days · range 90%–40% · 4 tier changes · venues disagreed 99.0pp · ↑ Rising at close

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain A ✓ happened 2026-10-07 Sports

Chicago Fire and Vancouver Draw, Both Teams Scoring

A low-scoring, shared-points result is the dominant read — the dead-heat result pricing and both-teams-to-score signal together suggest neither side controlled the match, leaving Chicago's playoff ambitions no better off than before.

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

Detroit Pistons 99% Virtually certain D ✓ happened 2026-10-02 Sports

Jalen Duren Almost Certainly Stays in Detroit

No credible outside suitor has emerged — Sacramento and LA remain distant noise rather than genuine threats, leaving Duren's continuity in Detroit as the overwhelming default.

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Sonny Gray 94% Very likely A ✓ happened 2026-09-27 Sports

Sonny Gray Has All but Clinched the MLB Wins Title

What had been a genuinely open race is now virtually certain: Gray's leap to 100% reflects a resolved statistical reality on the field, not a shift in sentiment — and alongside the New York Mets surging to 91% odds today, it points to a dominant Mets pitching story defining the final stretch of the 2026 season.

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days · venues agreed

J. J. Spaun 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-09-20 Sports

J. J. Spaun Wins the BMW PGA Championship

What had been an unlikely outcome is now a certainty — Spaun's victory is confirmed, closing a market that opened with him as a longshot.

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Jamaica Kingsmen 50% A coin flip C ✗ Antigua And Barbuda Falcons 2026-09-19 Sports

Caribbean Premier League Final Is a Dead Heat Between Jamaica and Antigua

What had been a likely Jamaica Kingsmen title is now a coin flip after the Guyana Amazon Warriors collapsed out of contention, turning the championship into a straight two-team contest with no clear favorite.

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 13 days · range 75%–50% · 2 tier changes · ↑ Rising at close

Notre Dame 80% Likely C 2026-08-31 Sports

Notre Dame Leads an Otherwise Wide-Open College Football Playoff Field

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 19 days · range 96%–78%

Gen.G Esports 41% Probably not D ✓ happened 2026-08-24 Sports

Hanwha Life Esports Lead a Near-Dead-Heat LCK Title Race as T1 Slip

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 25 days · range 100%–34% · 3 tier changes · ↑ Rising at close

Los Angeles Dodgers 32% Probably not C ✗ did not happen 2026-08-21 Sports

The Dodgers Lead the 2026 World Series Race in a Wide-Open Field

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 23 days · range 66%–28% · 4 tier changes · ↑ Rising at close

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 1% Virtually impossible B ✗ Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox 2026-08-21 Sports

Braves vs. White Sox Shapes Up as a Low-Scoring Affair

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 22 days · range 78%–68% · ↑ Rising at close

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-19 Sports

Shanghai Haigang and Dalian Yingbo Set for a High-Scoring Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Los Angeles D 34% Probably not A ✗ did not happen 2026-08-16 Sports

Los Angeles Leads the 2026 Baseball Title Race in a Fractured Field

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 18 days · range 66%–28% · 2 tier changes · venues disagreed 15.8pp · ↑ Rising at close

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry 100% Virtually certain A ✓ happened 2026-08-16 Sports

Makhachev Is Likely to Defeat Garry, Likely by Submission

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 10 days · range 98%–76% · 2 tier changes

Islam Makhachev 74% Leaning yes A ✓ happened 2026-08-16 Sports

Makhachev Is Likely to Defeat Garry

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 10 days

Jannik Sinner 50% A coin flip B ✗ Alexander Zverev 2026-08-14 Sports

Jannik Sinner Leads a Competitive US Open Field as Ben Shelton Surges

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 12 days · range 60%–26% · 10 tier changes · venues disagreed 90.8pp · ↑ Rising at close

New York Y 25% Unlikely C ✗ did not happen 2026-08-14 Sports

New York Yankees Lead a Tight American League Championship Race

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 16 days · range 71%–21% · 20 tier changes · ↑ Rising at close

Los Angeles R 24% Unlikely C 2026-08-14 Sports

Los Angeles Rams Lead a Wide-Open NFC Championship Race

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 16 days · range 25%–15%

Aryna Sabalenka 28% Probably not C ✗ Elena Rybakina 2026-08-14 Sports

Sabalenka Leads a Wide-Open US Open Women's Draw as Swiatek Fades

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 10 days · range 60%–21% · 5 tier changes · ↑ Rising at close

Tampa Bay 99% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-14 Sports

Milwaukee's Playoff Berth Is Certain; Los Angeles Likely Poised for a Deep Run

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 15 days

Barcelona 85% Likely C ✓ happened 2026-08-12 Sports

Rodri Is Likely Headed to Barcelona

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 7 days · range 85%–71%

Barcelona 71% Leaning yes C ✓ happened 2026-08-11 Sports

Rodri Is Likely Headed to Barcelona

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 7 days · range 99%–36% · 4 tier changes · ↑ Rising at close

Toronto Raptors 61% Leaning yes D ✓ happened 2026-08-10 Sports

Kawhi Leonard Is Increasingly Headed Back to Toronto

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 11 days · range 98%–53% · 3 tier changes · ↑ Rising at close

Jannik Sinner 54% A coin flip B ✗ Alexander Zverev 2026-08-09 Sports

Jannik Sinner Is the Heavy Favorite to Win the US Open

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 11 days · range 100%–0% · 9 tier changes · venues disagreed 94.5pp · ↓ Falling at close

Draw (Botafogo FR vs. Fluminense FC) 100% Virtually certain A ✓ happened 2026-08-09 Sports

Botafogo FR vs. Fluminense FC Is Too Close to Call

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

CF Monterrey 100% Virtually certain A ✓ happened 2026-08-09 Sports

Inter Miami and Monterrey Are Nearly Even on the Night

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 3 days · range 58%–44% · ↓ Falling at close

Draw (Clermont Foot 63 vs. Stade de Reims) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Stade de Reims Narrowly Favored Against Clermont

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Callum Walsh 99% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Callum Walsh Is Likely to Beat Tyler Denny

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Draw (VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Wolfsburg Hold a Narrow Edge Over Kaiserslautern

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Auxerre and Troyes Produced Goals from Both Sides

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Any Player Penta Kill 10% Very unlikely A ✗ Game 2 Winner 2026-08-08 Sports

Natus Vincere Have Virtually Certainly Beaten SK Gaming in the LEC

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

FK Mladá Boleslav 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

FK Mladá Boleslav Lead AC Sparta Praha at Halftime

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain A ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Betis vs. Bournemouth Will Be a High-Scoring Affair

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

2nd Half O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Crvena Zvezda vs. Novi Pazar Will Produce Goals, but the Margin Is Uncertain

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Both Teams to Score in Second Half 0% Virtually impossible C ✗ Ipswich Town (-1.5) 2026-08-08 Sports

Ipswich Town Overwhelm Rayo Vallecano in a Commanding Victory

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Draw (Standard Liege vs. Cercle Brugge) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Standard Liege Likely Beats Cercle Brugge Convincingly

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Match Winner 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Eternal Fire and Joblife Play a Long Map 1, With the Series Outcome Still Open

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

PSV Will Score Against Fortuna Sittard

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Barcelona 99% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Barcelona Favored Over Nottingham Forest but the Gap Has Narrowed

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Draw (Tottenham Hotspur vs. Getafe CF) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Tottenham and Getafe Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

Fredrikstad FK 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Fredrikstad FK Beats IK Start

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Draw (Lausanne-Sport vs. Young Boys Bern) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Lausanne-Sport and Young Boys Bern Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Katrina Scott 98% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Katrina Scott Holds a Narrow Edge Over Mai Hontama in the Quarterfinal

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Real Madrid Beats Ferencvaros with Both Teams Scoring

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Go Ahead Eagles (-1.5) 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Go Ahead Eagles Thrash Willem II in a Dominant One-Sided Victory

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Southampton FC (-1.5) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Southampton Cruise Past Colchester by at Least Two Goals

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

CA Tucumán (-1.5) 0% Virtually impossible B ✗ O/U 0.5 2026-08-08 Sports

Tucumán vs. Sarmiento Is Likely to See Goals, with Tucumán the Narrow Favorite

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 1.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Brest and Venezia Deliver a High-Scoring, Wide-Open Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

CD Riestra 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

CD Riestra Increasingly Favored to Beat Estudiantes de La Plata

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Tie 99% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Cajamarca vs. Tarma Is Too Close to Call

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Radu Mihai Papoe 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Nesterov Takes the First Set Against Papoe

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Brentford FC 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Brentford Will Beat Stade Rennais

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Draw (Barnsley FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Barnsley and Wigan Play to a Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Dundee FC 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Dundee FC Beat Aberdeen FC

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

2nd Half O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

St Mirren Beat St Johnstone

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

1st Half O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Elfsborg Wins Comfortably as All Goals Land in the First Half

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Draw (Bromley FC vs. Reading FC) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Bromley vs. Reading Ends in a Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Pogon Szczecin (-1.5) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Pogon Szczecin Demolish LKP Motor Lublin in a High-Scoring Rout

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Grazer AK 1902 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Grazer AK 1902 Has Won Against Austria Lustenau

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Outer Delhi Warriors 99% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Outer Delhi Warriors Are All But Certain to Beat Central Delhi Kings

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Tie 59% Leaning yes C ✗ Liverpool M 2026-08-08 Sports

Liverpool vs West Brom Is Headed for a Draw

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Draw (Burnley FC vs. Notts County FC) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Burnley and Notts County Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Draw (AFC Wimbledon vs. Newport County AFC) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

AFC Wimbledon and Newport County Drew

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 Rounds 74% Leaning yes A ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Thainara Likely Beats Lemos, With a Finish More Probable Than the Distance

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days · range 91%–72% · ↓ Falling at close

Blackburn Rovers FC 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Blackburn Rovers Beat Burton Albion

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Viking FK 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Viking FK Defeats Sarpsborg 08 FF

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Telstar 1963 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Telstar 1963 Beat NEC

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

West Ham United FC 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

West Ham Will Beat Portsmouth

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

PSG vs Manchester United Ends 0-0

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Astorga 97% Very likely C ✗ Tie 2026-08-08 Sports

Astorga Will Beat Deportivo Fabril

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Perez Alarcon / Sofia Sanchez 57% Leaning yes A ✗ Schaedel / Vig 2026-08-08 Sports

Perez Alarcon and Sanchez Remain Favorites but Schaedel and Vig Are Closing

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 2 days

Iga Swiatek 57% Leaning yes A ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Swiatek Edges Ahead Against Kostyuk in a Genuinely Competitive Round of 16

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day · venues disagreed 91.5pp

Map Handicap: KBG (-1.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+1.5) 0% Virtually impossible C ✗ Map Handicap: FPX (-1.5) vs KeepBest Gaming (+1.5) 2026-08-08 Sports

FunPlus Phoenix Sweeps KeepBest Gaming in VCT China Play-Ins

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Map 2 Winner 100% Virtually certain A ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

1WIN Sweeps BASEMENT BOYS in the Esports World Cup Qualifier

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Map 2 Winner 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Procyon Gaming Sweeps ODDIK Academy

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Leyton Orient FC 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Leyton Orient Beat Oxford United

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Thailand 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Thailand Defeats Myanmar

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Cardiff City Beat Swindon Town, Both Teams on the Scoresheet

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Salford City vs. Shrewsbury Town Produces Goals for Both Sides

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Map Handicap: LPH (-1.5) vs GamersLab Esports (+1.5) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

LPH Gaming Dominate GamersLab Esports in Tipsport Cup Playoffs

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Leicester City FC (-1.5) 0% Virtually impossible C ✗ O/U 0.5 2026-08-08 Sports

Leicester City Dismantle Northampton Town

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Watford vs Crawley Town Is Already Scoring — But Likely a Low-Goal Affair

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

The Hundred: MI London vs Trent Rockets - Completed match? 52% A coin flip A ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

MI London vs Trent Rockets Completion Is a Dead Heat

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

AFC Wimbledon and Newport County Draw, Both Teams Score

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Burnley and Notts County Play Out a High-Scoring Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Luton Town Wins Convincingly at Gillingham

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Stockport and Doncaster Deliver Goals; Fleetwood Win on the Same Day

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Barnsley vs. Wigan Ends in a High-Scoring Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Team Liquid 86% Likely C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Team Liquid Is Likely to Beat M80 in Rainbow Six

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

AIK 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

AIK Will Win Against Orgryte IS

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Galle Marvels 99% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Galle Marvels Are All But Certain to Beat Jaffna Kings

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

O/U 1.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Bayer Leverkusen Will Beat Sevilla in a High-Scoring Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Fleetwood Town Win a Low-Scoring Match Against Chesterfield

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Angers 84% Likely B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Angers Is Likely to Beat Lorient

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Lincoln City FC O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Derby County and Lincoln City Combined for a High-Scoring Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

RED Canids 80% Likely B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

RED Canids Likely Sweep paiN Gaming in CBLOL

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

FK Bodø/Glimt 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

FK Bodø/Glimt Beat Vålerenga; Viking Lead the Norwegian Table Race

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Chelsea FC 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Chelsea Beat AC Milan

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Jiangxi Dingnan United 100% Virtually certain D ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Jiangxi Dingnan United and Dalian Kun City Are Essentially a Coin Flip

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

QPR vs. Millwall Ends in a Draw With Goals Scored

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Gornik Zabrze (-1.5) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Gornik Zabrze Routs Radomiak Radom by Multiple Goals

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Gabriele Piraino 85% Likely A ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Gabriele Piraino Is Poised to Advance Past Sanchez Jover

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Felipe Meligeni Alves 89% Likely C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Felipe Meligeni Alves Is Poised to Win the Londrina Final

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Trent Rockets 98% Virtually certain A ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Trent Rockets Are Likely to Beat MI London — If the Match Is Played

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Vincent Dullinger 93% Very likely B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Dullinger Is Favored in the M15 Frankfurt Semifinal

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Daejeon Hana Citizen Defeated FC Anyang Decisively

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Draw (Nanjing City vs. Nantong Zhiyun) 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Nanjing City and Nantong Zhiyun Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Rongcheng Will Score; Yunnan Yukun Will Win

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Chelsea FC (-1.5) 100% Virtually certain B ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Chelsea Dismantled AC Milan by at Least Two Goals

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Cambridge United Beat Barnet in a High-Scoring Affair

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Manchester Super Giants 99% Virtually certain A ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Manchester Super Giants Win the Women's Hundred Match

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Zsombor Piros 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Gentzsch and Piros Will Complete Their Hagen Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Completed Match 100% Virtually certain C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Akli and Zakharova Will Finish Their Landisville Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Forger / Khoeblal 83% Likely C ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Forger and Khoeblal Are Likely to Win the M15 Eupen Doubles Final

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Shanghai Shenhua FC 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Shanghai Shenhua FC Will Beat Qingdao Hainiu FC

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Eintracht Braunschweig 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Eintracht Braunschweig Is Virtually Certain to Win on August 8

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Heidenheim Defeats VfL Osnabrück

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Karlsruher SC 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Karlsruher SC Have Won Against Arminia Bielefeld

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Tie 46% A coin flip ✗ Central Espanol 2026-08-08 Sports

Central Español vs Progreso Looks Headed for a Draw

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Istanbul 2: Lucas Poullain vs Gijs Brouwer Set 1 Winner 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Poullain vs Brouwer Will Reach a Set 1 Conclusion in Istanbul

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Malaysia 90% Very likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Malaysia Is Likely to Defeat the Philippines

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC Put Goals Past Anyang

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Fujieda MYFC 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Fujieda MYFC Beat Vegalta Sendai

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Bucheon FC 1995 (-1.5) 0% Virtually impossible ✗ did not happen 2026-08-08 Sports

Bucheon FC 1995 Cannot Cover a 1.5-Goal Spread

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Map Handicap: BRUTE (-1.5) vs eSuba (+1.5) 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

BRUTE Has All But Swept eSuba Out of the Tipsport Cup Playoffs

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Karlsruher SC Defeated Bielefeld in a High-Scoring Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Madurai Panthers 99% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Madurai Panthers Have Already Won

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Genemuiden 93% Very likely ✗ Tie 2026-08-08 Sports

Genemuiden Has the Edge but This Match Is Far From Settled

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Instituto AC Córdoba 58% Leaning yes ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Instituto AC Córdoba Is the Favorite Against Gimnasia de Mendoza

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Map 2 Winner 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Metizport Sweeps Prestige Out of the Esports World Cup Qualifier

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Completed Match 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Ghibaudo and Simakin Complete Their Istanbul Match Over 21.5 Games

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Simeon Powell 99% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Simeon Powell Is All but Certain to Beat Dovlet Yagshimuradov

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 8 days · range 63%–58% · ↓ Falling at close

Katrina Scott 97% Very likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Katrina Scott Is Virtually Certain to Advance Past YeXin Ma

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 2 days

Ends in Daytime 52% A coin flip ✗ did not happen 2026-08-08 Sports

Game 3 of Amaru vs. Jenz Is a Genuine Coin Flip on Timing

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days · range 60%–50% · ↓ Falling at close

Map 2 Winner 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Global Esports Has Won Map 1 Against ZETA DIVISION

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Elche CF 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Elche CF Beat Toulouse FC

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Yokohama DeNA BayStars 57% Leaning yes ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Yokohama DeNA BayStars Narrowly Favored Over Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

ŽNK Hajduk Split 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

ŽNK Hajduk Split Will Win Against ŽNK Mura

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

CA Tucumán 52% A coin flip ✗ CA Sarmiento 2026-08-08 Sports

CA Tucumán Narrowly Favored at Home Against Sarmiento

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Fujieda MYFC (-1.5) 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Fujieda MYFC Win Big Against Vegalta Sendai

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

ŽNK Mura 0 - 2 ŽNK Hajduk Split 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

ŽNK Hajduk Split Defeats ŽNK Mura 2-0

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

David Nyika 91% Very likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Nyika Is Virtually Certain to Beat Masson

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Júbilo Iwata and Blaublitz Akita Will Both Score

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Jerome Kym 94% Very likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Jerome Kym Is Poised to Reach the Final, Schwaerzler Already a Lock

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Reese Brantmeier 82% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Brantmeier Is Likely to Advance, Scott and Vandewinkel Also Poised to Progress

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 2 days

Cerezo Ōsaka 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama Is Too Close to Call

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Elche CF (-1.5) 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Elche CF Wins Comfortably, Covering a Large Spread Against Toulouse

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 Rounds 75% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Miller vs. Oliveira Is Likely to Last Past the First Round

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

Trent Rockets 93% Very likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Trent Rockets Are Likely to Win the Women's Match — but the Game May Not Be Played

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Vissel Kōbe 89% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Avispa Fukuoka Are Slight Favorites to Deny Vissel Kōbe

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Cerezo Ōsaka and Fagiano Okayama Deliver a High-Scoring Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

FC Machida Zelvia 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

FC Machida Zelvia Beat FC Tōkyō

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse Finishes Low-Scoring

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

First Blood in Game 1? 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

FURIA vs. LOUD Is a Dead Heat on Every Prop

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

Yes 100% Virtually certain settled: Yomiuri Giants 2026-08-08 Sports

Yomiuri Giants vs. Tokyo Yakult Swallows Will Almost Certainly Be Played

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Fukuoka Hawks 75% Likely ✗ Saitama Seibu Lions 2026-08-08 Sports

Fukuoka Hawks Are Likely to Down the Saitama Seibu Lions

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Andrea Guerrieri vs Daniil Glinka Total Sets: O/U 2.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Guerrieri vs. Glinka Is Perfectly Balanced Across Every Metric

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo 2 - 0 Tokushima Vortis 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo Defeat Tokushima Vortis 2–0

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Edda Mamedova 81% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Mamedova Is Likely to Advance Past Kurt in Astana Quarterfinal

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Leicester City FC 78% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Leicester City Likely Win Against Northampton Town

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 97% Very likely ✗ did not happen 2026-08-08 Sports

Lokomotiv vs Akron Will Virtually Certainly Produce Goals

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

RC Deportivo A Coruña 38% Probably not ✗ Draw (RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Elche CF) 2026-08-08 Sports

Deportivo A Coruña Hold a Slim Edge Over Elche in an Open Contest

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Denislava Glushkova 99% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Glushkova Is All but Certain to Advance to the Kursumlijska Banja Final

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Alcorcon 85% Likely ✗ Tie 2026-08-08 Sports

Alcorcon Likely Dispatches Navalcarnero

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Kisa Yoshioka 78% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Yoshioka Likely Advances Past Milovanova in W15 Astana Quarterfinal

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Tie 45% A coin flip ✗ Leganes B 2026-08-08 Sports

Illescas vs Leganés B Is Too Close to Call

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Draw (CD Malacateco vs. CSD Xelajú MC) 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

CD Malacateco and CSD Xelajú MC Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

August 30 0% Virtually impossible ✗ did not happen 2026-08-08 Sports

Cobblestone Returns to CS Competitive Play Before August 30

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Manchester United 46% A coin flip ✗ Draw (Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester United) 2026-08-08 Sports

PSG vs. Manchester United Is a Dead Heat

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

CS Marítimo 42% Probably not ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

CS Marítimo vs. Casa Pia Is a Genuine Three-Way Contest

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

PSV 82% Likely ✗ Draw (PSV vs. Fortuna Sittard) 2026-08-08 Sports

PSV Are Likely to Dispatch Fortuna Sittard

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 29% Probably not ✗ Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 2026-08-08 Sports

G2 vs. LOUD Heading to a Tight Map 3 Finish

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

Draw (Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CS Cristal) 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Universitario vs. Cristal Ends in a Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Sasikumar Mukund 91% Very likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Mukund Is Poised to Advance Past Sornlaksup in Astana Quarterfinal

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 82% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Riestra vs. Estudiantes Is Likely to Produce Goals Throughout

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Malacateco vs. Xelajú Produces Goals at Every Threshold

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Egor Pleshivtsev 82% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Pleshivtsev Is Likely Through to the M15 Astana Semifinals

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Sydney Swans 87% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Sydney Swans Poised to Defeat Port Adelaide Power

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 1 day

Minnesota 45% A coin flip ✗ did not happen 2026-08-08 Sports

Minnesota Is the Favorite in a Wide-Open WNBA Championship Race

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 10 days · range 67%–23% · 12 tier changes · ↑ Rising at close

FC Juárez 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

MLS Sides Hold the Edge Over Liga MX Opponents Across the Cup

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 3 days · ↑ Rising at close

NRFI 0% Virtually impossible ✗ Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners 2026-08-08 Sports

August 8 MLB Slate Is Wide Open Across the Board

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days · venues disagreed 99.0pp

National Bank Open: Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka Set Handicap +/-1.5 100% Virtually certain ✗ Completed Match 2026-08-08 Sports

Naomi Osaka Defeats Elise Mertens in Straight Sets at the National Bank Open

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days · venues disagreed 91.5pp

Draw (Tigres de la UANL vs. Minnesota United FC) 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Tigres and Minnesota Play to a Draw

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

ITF Southaven: Kaylan Bigun vs Maximus Dussault Set 2 Winner 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Bigun Takes the Second Set Against Dussault

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Cartaginés vs. Sporting FC Delivers Goals Throughout

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 86% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Veronica Burton Likely Hauls in a Big Rebounding Game Against Dallas

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

Completed Match 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Shah vs. Sanchez Quilez Completes Without Interruption

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

NJ/NY Gotham FC 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

NJ/NY Gotham FC Defeats San Diego Wave FC

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Caribbean Premier League: Jamaica Kingsmen vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons - Completed match? 55% Leaning yes ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Jamaica Kingsmen vs. Antigua Falcons Hangs on a Coin Flip to Be Completed

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 91% Very likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Sapporo vs. Tokushima Will Almost Certainly Produce Goals

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 6.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Dodgers and Diamondbacks Set for a High-Scoring Affair

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days · venues disagreed 99.0pp

Any Player Quadra Kill 10% Very unlikely ✗ Game 2 Winner 2026-08-08 Sports

Vivo Keyd vs. Fluxo W7M Likely Goes the Distance — But Stays Clean

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days · venues disagreed 80.5pp

CSD Independiente del Valle 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

CSD Independiente del Valle Beat LDU Quito

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

CD Universidad Católica 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

CD Universidad Católica Defeats CD Cobresal

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Completed Match 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Townsend and Bencic Complete Their National Bank Open Match

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days · venues disagreed 91.5pp

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

CSD Independiente del Valle Dominates LDU Quito

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

O/U 0.5 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Gotham FC vs. San Diego Wave Produces Goals, Final Score Now Settled

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 1 day

Steven Asplund by KO/TKO/DQ 44% Probably not ✗ Steven Asplund by Decision 2026-08-08 Sports

Asplund vs Pat Is Too Close to Call on Method of Victory

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 2 days

Belinda Bencic 89% Likely ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Bencic Is Likely to Advance Past Townsend in the Round of 32

Market closed · Kalshi · tracked 2 days · venues disagreed 92.5pp

Game Handicap: DOG (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5) 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

Dorado Gaming Sweeps Blue Otter in a Dominant Series

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

CS Independiente Rivadavia 100% Virtually certain ✓ happened 2026-08-08 Sports

CS Independiente Rivadavia Defeats AA Estudiantes

Market closed · Polymarket · tracked 2 days

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