The Forecast Ledger
Every market we covered that has since closed, with the probability we published. This is the raw material of calibration — when we said 80%, how often was the money right? The ledger fills as markets resolve; scoring and calibration charts appear once enough history accumulates.
200 resolved markets in Sports · average publication probability 79.1%
By conviction — Virtually certain: 111 · Very likely: 11 · Likely: 21 · Leaning yes: 12 · A coin flip: 12 · Probably not: 12 · Unlikely: 11 · Very unlikely: 2 · Virtually impossible: 8
By quality — A: 15 · B: 23 · C: 82 · D: 9
CJ Carr Leads a Wide-Open Heisman Race with No Clear Favorite
Market closed · Kalshi
Notre Dame Leads an Otherwise Wide-Open College Football Playoff Field
Market closed · Kalshi
Bayern Munich Will Likely Retain the Bundesliga Title in 2026-27
Market closed · Polymarket
The 2027 NFL Season Has No Clear Favorite — It's Anyone's Championship
Market closed · Kalshi
Hanwha Life Esports Lead a Near-Dead-Heat LCK Title Race as T1 Slip
Market closed · Polymarket
Antonelli Is Likely Poised to Clinch the F1 Drivers Championship
Market closed · Kalshi
Ohio State and Notre Dame Share the Slimmest of Edges in a Wide-Open 2027 CFP Race
Market closed · Polymarket
The Dodgers Lead the 2026 World Series Race in a Wide-Open Field
Market closed · Polymarket
Philadelphia 76ers Lead a Wide-Open 2027 Eastern Conference Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Braves vs. White Sox Shapes Up as a Low-Scoring Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
Shanghai Haigang and Dalian Yingbo Set for a High-Scoring Match
Market closed · Polymarket
Harry Kane Leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or Race as Mbappe Fades
Market closed · Kalshi
Texas Tech Leads a Wide-Open Big 12 Championship Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Oklahoma City Thunder Lead a Wide-Open 2027 NBA Championship Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Inter Milan Is Favored but Far From Certain to Win Serie A
Market closed · Polymarket
Los Angeles Leads the 2026 Baseball Title Race in a Fractured Field
Market closed · Kalshi
Barcelona and PSG Share a Razor-Thin Lead in a Wide-Open Champions League
Market closed · Kalshi
Sindarov Is Increasingly the Favorite to Become World Chess Champion
Market closed · Kalshi
Makhachev Is Likely to Defeat Garry, Likely by Submission
Market closed · Polymarket
Makhachev Is Likely to Defeat Garry
Market closed · Kalshi
Jannik Sinner Leads a Competitive US Open Field as Ben Shelton Surges
Market closed · Kalshi
New York Yankees Lead a Tight American League Championship Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Los Angeles Rams Lead a Wide-Open NFC Championship Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Sabalenka Leads a Wide-Open US Open Women's Draw as Swiatek Fades
Market closed · Kalshi
Los Angeles R Leads a Wide-Open NFL Best-Record Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Milwaukee's Playoff Berth Is Certain; Los Angeles Likely Poised for a Deep Run
Market closed · Kalshi
Arsenal Leads the Premier League Title Race with City Fading
Market closed · Polymarket
Florida Panthers Lead a Wide-Open NHL Championship Field
Market closed · Polymarket
Inter Miami CF Is the Favorite in a Wide-Open MLS Cup Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Rodri Is Likely Headed to Barcelona
Market closed · Polymarket
Josh Allen Leads a Genuinely Fractured NFL MVP Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Dylan Cease Holds a Razor-Thin Lead as Cam Schlittler Surges Into Contention
Market closed · Polymarket
Miami Leads the MLS Cup Race as Los Angeles Fades
Market closed · Kalshi
Kawhi Leonard Is Increasingly Headed Back to Toronto
Market closed · Polymarket
Ohio State Leads a Three-Way Big Ten Championship Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Aaron Rodgers Is Heading to Pittsburgh
Market closed · Kalshi
Arsenal Lead the Premier League Title Race in a Competitive Field
Market closed · Kalshi
Jannik Sinner Is the Heavy Favorite to Win the US Open
Market closed · Polymarket
Botafogo FR vs. Fluminense FC Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Polymarket
Inter Miami and Monterrey Are Nearly Even on the Night
Market closed · Polymarket
Stade de Reims Narrowly Favored Against Clermont
Market closed · Polymarket
Callum Walsh Is Likely to Beat Tyler Denny
Market closed · Kalshi
Wolfsburg Hold a Narrow Edge Over Kaiserslautern
Market closed · Polymarket
Auxerre and Troyes Produced Goals from Both Sides
Market closed · Polymarket
Natus Vincere Have Virtually Certainly Beaten SK Gaming in the LEC
Market closed · Polymarket
FK Mladá Boleslav Lead AC Sparta Praha at Halftime
Market closed · Polymarket
Betis vs. Bournemouth Will Be a High-Scoring Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
Crvena Zvezda vs. Novi Pazar Will Produce Goals, but the Margin Is Uncertain
Market closed · Polymarket
Ipswich Town Overwhelm Rayo Vallecano in a Commanding Victory
Market closed · Polymarket
Standard Liege Likely Beats Cercle Brugge Convincingly
Market closed · Polymarket
Eternal Fire and Joblife Play a Long Map 1, With the Series Outcome Still Open
Market closed · Polymarket
PSV Will Score Against Fortuna Sittard
Market closed · Polymarket
Barcelona Favored Over Nottingham Forest but the Gap Has Narrowed
Market closed · Kalshi
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Lausanne-Sport and Young Boys Bern Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Katrina Scott Holds a Narrow Edge Over Mai Hontama in the Quarterfinal
Market closed · Kalshi
Real Madrid Beats Ferencvaros with Both Teams Scoring
Market closed · Polymarket
Go Ahead Eagles Thrash Willem II in a Dominant One-Sided Victory
Market closed · Polymarket
Southampton Cruise Past Colchester by at Least Two Goals
Market closed · Polymarket
Tucumán vs. Sarmiento Is Likely to See Goals, with Tucumán the Narrow Favorite
Market closed · Polymarket
Brest and Venezia Deliver a High-Scoring, Wide-Open Match
Market closed · Polymarket
CD Riestra Increasingly Favored to Beat Estudiantes de La Plata
Market closed · Polymarket
Cajamarca vs. Tarma Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Nesterov Takes the First Set Against Papoe
Market closed · Polymarket
Brentford Will Beat Stade Rennais
Market closed · Polymarket
Barnsley and Wigan Play to a Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Elfsborg Wins Comfortably as All Goals Land in the First Half
Market closed · Polymarket
Bromley vs. Reading Ends in a Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Pogon Szczecin Demolish LKP Motor Lublin in a High-Scoring Rout
Market closed · Polymarket
Grazer AK 1902 Has Won Against Austria Lustenau
Market closed · Polymarket
Outer Delhi Warriors Are All But Certain to Beat Central Delhi Kings
Market closed · Kalshi
Liverpool vs West Brom Is Headed for a Draw
Market closed · Kalshi
Market closed · Polymarket
AFC Wimbledon and Newport County Drew
Market closed · Polymarket
Thainara Likely Beats Lemos, With a Finish More Probable Than the Distance
Market closed · Polymarket
Blackburn Rovers Beat Burton Albion
Market closed · Polymarket
Viking FK Defeats Sarpsborg 08 FF
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
PSG vs Manchester United Ends 0-0
Market closed · Polymarket
Astorga Will Beat Deportivo Fabril
Market closed · Kalshi
Perez Alarcon and Sanchez Remain Favorites but Schaedel and Vig Are Closing
Market closed · Kalshi
Swiatek Edges Ahead Against Kostyuk in a Genuinely Competitive Round of 16
Market closed · Kalshi
FunPlus Phoenix Sweeps KeepBest Gaming in VCT China Play-Ins
Market closed · Polymarket
1WIN Sweeps BASEMENT BOYS in the Esports World Cup Qualifier
Market closed · Polymarket
Procyon Gaming Sweeps ODDIK Academy
Market closed · Polymarket
Leyton Orient Beat Oxford United
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Cardiff City Beat Swindon Town, Both Teams on the Scoresheet
Market closed · Polymarket
Salford City vs. Shrewsbury Town Produces Goals for Both Sides
Market closed · Polymarket
LPH Gaming Dominate GamersLab Esports in Tipsport Cup Playoffs
Market closed · Polymarket
Leicester City Dismantle Northampton Town
Market closed · Polymarket
Watford vs Crawley Town Is Already Scoring — But Likely a Low-Goal Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
MI London vs Trent Rockets Completion Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
AFC Wimbledon and Newport County Draw, Both Teams Score
Market closed · Polymarket
Burnley and Notts County Play Out a High-Scoring Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Luton Town Wins Convincingly at Gillingham
Market closed · Polymarket
Stockport and Doncaster Deliver Goals; Fleetwood Win on the Same Day
Market closed · Polymarket
Barnsley vs. Wigan Ends in a High-Scoring Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Team Liquid Is Likely to Beat M80 in Rainbow Six
Market closed · Kalshi
AIK Will Win Against Orgryte IS
Market closed · Polymarket
Galle Marvels Are All But Certain to Beat Jaffna Kings
Market closed · Kalshi
Bayer Leverkusen Will Beat Sevilla in a High-Scoring Match
Market closed · Polymarket
Fleetwood Town Win a Low-Scoring Match Against Chesterfield
Market closed · Polymarket
Derby County and Lincoln City Combined for a High-Scoring Match
Market closed · Polymarket
RED Canids Likely Sweep paiN Gaming in CBLOL
Market closed · Kalshi
FK Bodø/Glimt Beat Vålerenga; Viking Lead the Norwegian Table Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Jiangxi Dingnan United and Dalian Kun City Are Essentially a Coin Flip
Market closed · Polymarket
QPR vs. Millwall Ends in a Draw With Goals Scored
Market closed · Polymarket
Gornik Zabrze Routs Radomiak Radom by Multiple Goals
Market closed · Polymarket
Gabriele Piraino Is Poised to Advance Past Sanchez Jover
Market closed · Kalshi
Felipe Meligeni Alves Is Poised to Win the Londrina Final
Market closed · Kalshi
Trent Rockets Are Likely to Beat MI London — If the Match Is Played
Market closed · Kalshi
Dullinger Is Favored in the M15 Frankfurt Semifinal
Market closed · Kalshi
Daejeon Hana Citizen Defeated FC Anyang Decisively
Market closed · Polymarket
Nanjing City and Nantong Zhiyun Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Rongcheng Will Score; Yunnan Yukun Will Win
Market closed · Polymarket
Chelsea Dismantled AC Milan by at Least Two Goals
Market closed · Polymarket
Cambridge United Beat Barnet in a High-Scoring Affair
Market closed · Polymarket
Manchester Super Giants Win the Women's Hundred Match
Market closed · Kalshi
Gentzsch and Piros Will Complete Their Hagen Match
Market closed · Polymarket
Akli and Zakharova Will Finish Their Landisville Match
Market closed · Polymarket
Forger and Khoeblal Are Likely to Win the M15 Eupen Doubles Final
Market closed · Kalshi
Shanghai Shenhua FC Will Beat Qingdao Hainiu FC
Market closed · Polymarket
Eintracht Braunschweig Is Virtually Certain to Win on August 8
Market closed · Polymarket
Heidenheim Defeats VfL Osnabrück
Market closed · Polymarket
Karlsruher SC Have Won Against Arminia Bielefeld
Market closed · Polymarket
Central Español vs Progreso Looks Headed for a Draw
Market closed · Kalshi
Poullain vs Brouwer Will Reach a Set 1 Conclusion in Istanbul
Market closed · Polymarket
Malaysia Is Likely to Defeat the Philippines
Market closed · Kalshi
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC Put Goals Past Anyang
Market closed · Polymarket
Fujieda MYFC Beat Vegalta Sendai
Market closed · Polymarket
Bucheon FC 1995 Cannot Cover a 1.5-Goal Spread
Market closed · Polymarket
BRUTE Has All But Swept eSuba Out of the Tipsport Cup Playoffs
Market closed · Polymarket
Karlsruher SC Defeated Bielefeld in a High-Scoring Match
Market closed · Polymarket
Madurai Panthers Have Already Won
Market closed · Kalshi
Genemuiden Has the Edge but This Match Is Far From Settled
Market closed · Kalshi
Instituto AC Córdoba Is the Favorite Against Gimnasia de Mendoza
Market closed · Polymarket
Metizport Sweeps Prestige Out of the Esports World Cup Qualifier
Market closed · Polymarket
Ghibaudo and Simakin Complete Their Istanbul Match Over 21.5 Games
Market closed · Polymarket
Simeon Powell Is All but Certain to Beat Dovlet Yagshimuradov
Market closed · Kalshi
Katrina Scott Is Virtually Certain to Advance Past YeXin Ma
Market closed · Kalshi
Game 3 of Amaru vs. Jenz Is a Genuine Coin Flip on Timing
Market closed · Polymarket
Global Esports Has Won Map 1 Against ZETA DIVISION
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Polymarket
Yokohama DeNA BayStars Narrowly Favored Over Hiroshima Toyo Carp
Market closed · Kalshi
ŽNK Hajduk Split Will Win Against ŽNK Mura
Market closed · Polymarket
CA Tucumán Narrowly Favored at Home Against Sarmiento
Market closed · Polymarket
Fujieda MYFC Win Big Against Vegalta Sendai
Market closed · Polymarket
ŽNK Hajduk Split Defeats ŽNK Mura 2-0
Market closed · Polymarket
Nyika Is Virtually Certain to Beat Masson
Market closed · Kalshi
Júbilo Iwata and Blaublitz Akita Will Both Score
Market closed · Polymarket
Jerome Kym Is Poised to Reach the Final, Schwaerzler Already a Lock
Market closed · Kalshi
Brantmeier Is Likely to Advance, Scott and Vandewinkel Also Poised to Progress
Market closed · Kalshi
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Polymarket
Elche CF Wins Comfortably, Covering a Large Spread Against Toulouse
Market closed · Polymarket
Miller vs. Oliveira Is Likely to Last Past the First Round
Market closed · Polymarket
Trent Rockets Are Likely to Win the Women's Match — but the Game May Not Be Played
Market closed · Kalshi
Avispa Fukuoka Are Slight Favorites to Deny Vissel Kōbe
Market closed · Polymarket
Cerezo Ōsaka and Fagiano Okayama Deliver a High-Scoring Match
Market closed · Polymarket
FC Machida Zelvia Beat FC Tōkyō
Market closed · Polymarket
Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse Finishes Low-Scoring
Market closed · Polymarket
FURIA vs. LOUD Is a Dead Heat on Every Prop
Market closed · Polymarket
Yomiuri Giants vs. Tokyo Yakult Swallows Will Almost Certainly Be Played
Market closed · Polymarket
Fukuoka Hawks Are Likely to Down the Saitama Seibu Lions
Market closed · Kalshi
Guerrieri vs. Glinka Is Perfectly Balanced Across Every Metric
Market closed · Polymarket
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo Defeat Tokushima Vortis 2–0
Market closed · Polymarket
Mamedova Is Likely to Advance Past Kurt in Astana Quarterfinal
Market closed · Kalshi
Leicester City Likely Win Against Northampton Town
Market closed · Polymarket
Lokomotiv vs Akron Will Virtually Certainly Produce Goals
Market closed · Polymarket
Deportivo A Coruña Hold a Slim Edge Over Elche in an Open Contest
Market closed · Polymarket
Glushkova Is All but Certain to Advance to the Kursumlijska Banja Final
Market closed · Kalshi
Alcorcon Likely Dispatches Navalcarnero
Market closed · Kalshi
Yoshioka Likely Advances Past Milovanova in W15 Astana Quarterfinal
Market closed · Kalshi
Illescas vs Leganés B Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Kalshi
CD Malacateco and CSD Xelajú MC Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Cobblestone Returns to CS Competitive Play Before August 30
Market closed · Polymarket
PSG vs. Manchester United Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
CS Marítimo vs. Casa Pia Is a Genuine Three-Way Contest
Market closed · Polymarket
PSV Are Likely to Dispatch Fortuna Sittard
Market closed · Polymarket
Curry Stays in Golden State; Kawhi Returns to Toronto; Bronny Lands in LA
Market closed · Polymarket
G2 vs. LOUD Heading to a Tight Map 3 Finish
Market closed · Polymarket
Universitario vs. Cristal Ends in a Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Mukund Is Poised to Advance Past Sornlaksup in Astana Quarterfinal
Market closed · Kalshi
Riestra vs. Estudiantes Is Likely to Produce Goals Throughout
Market closed · Polymarket
Malacateco vs. Xelajú Produces Goals at Every Threshold
Market closed · Polymarket
Pleshivtsev Is Likely Through to the M15 Astana Semifinals
Market closed · Kalshi
Sydney Swans Poised to Defeat Port Adelaide Power
Market closed · Kalshi
Minnesota Is the Favorite in a Wide-Open WNBA Championship Race
Market closed · Kalshi
MLS Sides Hold the Edge Over Liga MX Opponents Across the Cup
Market closed · Polymarket
August 8 MLB Slate Is Wide Open Across the Board
Market closed · Polymarket
Naomi Osaka Defeats Elise Mertens in Straight Sets at the National Bank Open
Market closed · Polymarket
Tigres and Minnesota Play to a Draw
Market closed · Polymarket
Bigun Takes the Second Set Against Dussault
Market closed · Polymarket