Sonny Gray Has All but Certainly Clinched the MLB Wins Title
Source: Polymarket market “MLB Wins Leader (2026)”
Sonny Gray: virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome
Sonny Gray 99%
Virtually certain · A
probably not → virtually certain
24h move
▲
62.8 pts
Sonny Gray
Traded 24h
$23K
$29K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-12
Source markets
45
45 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Sonny Gray
99%
▲
62.8
Cristopher Sánchez
0%
▼
55.0
Eduardo Rodriguez
0%
0.2
Aaron Ashby
0%
0.0
Foster Griffin
0%
0.1
Drew Rasmussen
0%
0.2
Source markets for this story
Baltimore vs New York Y (Game 2)
Kalshi · New York Y 96% · +34.0 24h
New York M vs Washington
Kalshi · Washington 94% · +49.0 24h
Texas vs Minnesota
Kalshi · Minnesota 98% · +47.0 24h
Pro Baseball Champion
Kalshi · Los Angeles D 29% · -2.1 24h
Cincinnati vs Toronto
Kalshi · Toronto 89% · +33.0 24h
Pittsburgh vs Detroit
Kalshi · Detroit 86% · +36.0 24h
Cleveland vs Kansas City
Kalshi · Cleveland 63% · +7.0 24h
Arizona vs San Diego
Kalshi · Arizona 52% · +7.0 24h
Colorado vs Chicago WS
Kalshi · Chicago WS 93% · +26.0 24h
St. Louis vs Milwaukee
Kalshi · Milwaukee 64% · +1.0 24h
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket · New York Yankees O/U 1.5 100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox
Polymarket · Boston Red Sox O/U 1.5 50%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Polymarket · O/U 12.5 100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Polymarket · O/U 7.5 100% · +50.0 24h
Los Angeles D vs San Francisco
Kalshi · Los Angeles D 75% · -3.0 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Polymarket · O/U 8.5 100% · +56.5 24h
Houston vs A's
Kalshi · Houston 65% · +4.0 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox
Polymarket · Chicago White Sox O/U 2.5 96% · +25.5 24h
Houston vs A's: Home Runs
Kalshi · Yordan Alvarez: 1+ 27%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Polymarket · O/U 1.5 100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Polymarket · 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 100% · +66.5 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Polymarket · O/U 7.5 100% · +47.4 24h
Houston Astros vs. Athletics
Polymarket · Athletics O/U 1.5 86%
Los Angeles A vs Seattle
Kalshi · Seattle 52% · -4.0 24h
Colorado vs Chicago WS: Home Runs
Kalshi · Munetaka Murakami: 1+ 99%
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
Kalshi · San Diego 99% · +4.0 24h
New York M vs Washington: Home Runs
Kalshi · Bo Bichette: 1+ 99%
Arizona vs San Diego: Home Runs
Kalshi · Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ 19%
Los Angeles D vs San Francisco: Home Runs
Kalshi · Shohei Ohtani: 1+ 25%
Cleveland vs Kansas City: Home Runs
Kalshi · Carter Jensen: 1+ 99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Polymarket · 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 100% · +79.5 24h
Pittsburgh vs Detroit: Home Runs
Kalshi · Spencer Torkelson: 1+ 99%
NL Rookie of the Year Winner?
Kalshi · Sal Stewart 91% · +4.0 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Polymarket · San Diego Padres O/U 1.5 88% · +37.5 24h
Baltimore vs New York Y: Game 2 Home Runs
Kalshi · Ben Rice: 2+ 35%
National League Champion
Kalshi · Los Angeles D 43% · +1.0 24h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Polymarket · San Francisco Giants O/U 0.5 88% · +37.5 24h
Pro Baseball Championship Series Matchup
Kalshi · New York Y vs Los Angeles D 11% · +1.6 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Polymarket · Los Angeles Angels O/U 1.5 78% · +27.5 24h
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Polymarket · Los Angeles Dodgers 30%
St. Louis vs Milwaukee: Home Runs
Kalshi · Ivan Herrera: 1+ 99%
Texas vs Minnesota: Home Runs
Kalshi · Ryan Jeffers: 1+ 11%
Arizona vs San Diego: Hits
Kalshi · Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ 72%
Los Angeles D vs San Francisco: Hits
Kalshi · Mookie Betts: 1+ 72%
MLB Wins Leader (2026)
Polymarket · Sonny Gray 99% · +62.8 24h
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