The Forecast Ledger
Every market we covered that has since closed, with the probability we published. This is the raw material of calibration — when we said 80%, how often was the money right? The ledger fills as markets resolve; scoring and calibration charts appear once enough history accumulates.
65 resolved markets in Curiosities · average publication probability 62.4%
By conviction — Virtually certain: 13 · Very likely: 10 · Likely: 11 · Leaning yes: 8 · A coin flip: 2 · Probably not: 5 · Unlikely: 7 · Very unlikely: 7 · Virtually impossible: 2
By quality — A: 1 · B: 3 · C: 25 · D: 15
Dior Likely Dresses Taylor Swift, but Challengers Are Closing In
Market closed · Kalshi
2026 Is Likely to Resolve as a Year When 'Nothing Happened'
Market closed · Polymarket
Apple Maps Has Renamed Lake Ontario to Lake America
Market closed · Polymarket
Dolly Parton Leads a Morbid Guessing Game, but the Field Is Wide Open
Market closed · Polymarket
Federal Charges Against Cuba's Díaz-Canel Are a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Bosnia's Next Council Chair Race Is Wide Open and Unresolved
Market closed · Polymarket
Michael Jackson Is Likely to Break 22 Million Daily Views in August
Market closed · Kalshi
A100 GPU Rental Rates Are Likely Stuck Near $1 Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
Indiana's Lions Remain at Large
Market closed · Polymarket
Milo Yiannopoulos Will Be Deported This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Said Exactly What You'd Expect at NASA
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran's Currency Hovers Near a Fragile Floor as Rial Uncertainty Spikes
Market closed · Polymarket
Rockstar's GTA VI Extended Look Will Run At Least 20 Minutes
Market closed · Kalshi
Z.ai Is Likely Behind the Ox Alpha Stealth AI Model
Market closed · Kalshi
A Kanye West Russia Performance by October Is Looking Unlikely
Market closed · Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei Is Unlikely to Appear in Public This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment Will Comfortably Hold Above 447,500 Jobs in 2026
Market closed · Kalshi
Vance Will Attack Democrats and Invoke Biden in Maine Remarks
Market closed · Kalshi
Base's Token Launch Is a Coin Flip, but the Timeline Is Shifting Earlier
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Talk Energy at the Graham Rally — Biden and Communism Too
Market closed · Kalshi
Vance Will Lead With Steel in His Ohio Remarks
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Likely Names a New Press Secretary Before September's End
Market closed · Polymarket
Micron's CEO Is Likely to Dodge Buzzwords on Mad Money Tonight
Market closed · Kalshi
Ciro Nogueira Edges Ahead in a Knife-Edge Piauí Senate Race
Market closed · Polymarket
MicroStrategy Is Likely Dropped from the MSCI Index by Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Warsh Will Talk Productivity, Regime Change, and Challenge at Jackson Hole
Market closed · Polymarket
America's Midterm Elections Will Proceed on Schedule
Market closed · Polymarket
Dan Bilzerian Will Likely Clear the 2.5% Threshold in Florida's Republican Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Tom Homan Will Likely Talk Deportation on Fox — and Increasingly National Security Too
Market closed · Kalshi
MrBeast Gaming's Next Video Will Almost Certainly Hit 12–14 Million Day-One Views
Market closed · Polymarket
Todd Blanche Will Say 'Trump' at Least Three Times on Fox News Sunday
Market closed · Kalshi
The 1996 McLaren F1 GTR Will Likely Fall Well Short of Its Hoped-For Price
Market closed · Polymarket
Doge-1's Lunar Launch Narrowly Favors a First-Half 2027 Window
Market closed · Polymarket
Ronaldo's Wedding Guest List Is Anyone's Guess
Market closed · Polymarket
GameStop Buying eBay Is a Fantasy, Not a Plan
Market closed · Kalshi
KAROL G's New Album Is Headed for a Massive Debut Week
Market closed · Kalshi
Mamdani Will Talk About Affordability — and Increasingly About Taxes
Market closed · Kalshi
The Next James Bond Remains Unchosen in a Fractured Field
Market closed · Polymarket
Air Canada's Next Earnings Call Will Be Dominated by Middle East Turbulence
Market closed · Kalshi
Cava Will Talk Salmon — and Increasingly, AI Too
Market closed · Kalshi
A U.S. Alien Confirmation Remains Unlikely Before 2029
Market closed · Kalshi
Alfred Cannan Leads a Wide-Open Isle of Man Leadership Race
Market closed · Polymarket
El-Sayed Will Talk Healthcare on Meet the Press — and Likely Gaza Too
Market closed · Kalshi
Chris Bryant Is the Favorite to Be First Out of the Burnham Cabinet
Market closed · Polymarket
A U.S. Alien Disclosure This Year Is All But Impossible
Market closed · Polymarket
A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Before 2028 Is a Coin Flip
Market closed · Kalshi
Situational Awareness Is Almost Certain to Keep Running Through 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Satoshi's Bitcoin Stays Dormant Through 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Celsius Will Name PepsiCo on Its Next Earnings Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Mike Lindell Is Poised to Win Minnesota's Republican Gubernatorial Nomination
Market closed · Kalshi
Pete Buttigieg Is Likely to Announce a 2028 Presidential Run
Market closed · Polymarket
A Valve or Plumbing Failure Destroyed the Blue Origin New Glenn
Market closed · Polymarket
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump and Musk Are Likely Not Meeting in August
Market closed · Polymarket
California Is Almost Certain to Carve Out a Goat-Herder Wage Exception
Market closed · Kalshi
Count Binface Is Poised to Finish Second in the Clacton By-Election
Market closed · Polymarket
Senate AI Hearing Will Center on Cost and Privacy, Not National Security
Market closed · Kalshi
"DTF St. Louis" Is All but Certain to Win Nothing at the Emmys
Market closed · Polymarket
Spotify's Earnings Call Will Be Dominated by Headwinds and Retention
Market closed · Kalshi
Chuck Norris Leads a Wide-Open Death-Watch Market Nobody Can Call
Market closed · Polymarket
A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement This Year Remains a Long Shot
Market closed · Polymarket
The 2026 WSOP Main Event Title Almost Certainly Stays in North America
Market closed · Polymarket
No Clear Favorite Emerges in 2026's Most-Searched Athlete Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Count Binface Is Set for a Historically Strong Second-Place Finish in Clacton
Market closed · Polymarket