Curiosities

Trump Is Very Likely to Say 'Fake News' in North Carolina Remarks

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “What will Trump say during remarks in North Carolina?”

very likely (96%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Leading outcome Fake News 96% Very likely · Stable · C · tracked 4 days likely → very likely
24h move 0.0 pts Fake News
Traded 24h $166K $291K all time
Resolves by 2026-09-30

Where the money stands

Fake News 96% 0.0
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 96% 0.0
Biden 95% 0.0
Communist / Communism 95% 0.0
Iran 95% 0.0
Tariff 94% ▲ 2.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Curiosities leaning 0

AI Solving Another Millennium Prize Problem in 2026 Is Now a Coin Flip

0: a coin flip (49%)

What had been leaning toward zero solutions is now genuinely unresolved — the question of whether AI cracks one of mathematics' hardest problems this year is split nearly down the middle, reflecting not just hype but a real uncertainty about whether the field's recent breakthrough momentum carries through year-end. That people are staking serious money on this at all says something about how quickly the impossible has become the arguable.

Updated 7:01 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $20K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 7 days range 50% (0d ago) – 34% (4d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → a coin flip 2 tier changes
Curiosities

No Alien Disclosure Is Coming Before 2027

very unlikely (6%)

Despite the topic trending in news feeds, the money is unmoved — this is a story the public keeps telling itself that the evidence consistently refuses to confirm, a gap that is itself the curiosity.

Updated 5:26 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $21K venue Polymarket grade B tracked 49 days trending in today's news
Curiosities

Mojtaba Khamenei Is Likely to Remain Out of Public Sight All Year

unlikely (22%)

Sustained absence at this scale is itself a political signal — whoever controls access to the supreme leader's heir apparent is, for now, controlling the succession narrative entirely from the shadows.

Updated 2:10 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $44K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 49 days range 32% (36d ago) – 20% (0d ago) 6 tier changes