Curiositiesa real race

Callum Turner Leads a Fractured, Undecided James Bond Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Next James Bond actor?”

Callum Turner: probably not (29%)
Resolved The money put No Bond chosen at 23% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Callum Turner 29% Probably not · Rising · C · tracked 94 days peak 61% (9d ago) · low 22% (70d ago) 19 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 26.9pp
24h move ▼ 3.0 pts Callum Turner
Traded 24h $49K $2.4M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 2 2 markets · all agree

Where the money stands

Callum Turner 29% ▼ 3.0
Jack Lowden 29% 0.1
Robert Pattinson 18% ▼ 1.2
No Bond chosen 12% ▲ 3.9
Josh O'Connor 7% ▼ 1.7
Tom Francis 3% ▲ 2.4

Source markets for this story

Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond Kalshi · Callum Turner 33%
Next James Bond actor? Polymarket · Callum Turner 29% · -3.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Curiosities

Curiosities odds favor 8

Exactly Eight Cyclones Making China Landfall in 2026 Is Now Just a Lean

8: leaning yes (58%)

The fact that people stake real money on annual typhoon counts at all reflects a quietly growing appetite to price climate risk as a concrete, resolvable question — and right now that question is genuinely open, having swung across conviction rungs six times since tracking began. The seven-landfall scenario collapsed overnight, shifting weight to eight, but what had been a likely call is now only a lean.

Updated 12:28 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $13K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 66 days range 80% (65d ago) – 40% (46d ago) likely → leaning yes 6 tier changes
Curiosities

Satoshi's Bitcoin Is Very Likely to Stay Dark Through 2026

very unlikely (3%)

The fact that over five million dollars has been staked on whether a pseudonymous founder will move coins after more than a decade of silence says something about the anxieties crypto has generated — less a trading opportunity than a collective vigil, measuring how much faith the market places in an origin myth that has never been tested.

Updated 4:10 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $38K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 104 days
Curiosities

The U.S. Is Very Unlikely to Confirm Alien Life Before 2027

very unlikely (3%)

Whatever is driving public curiosity about disclosure right now, the money is deeply unmoved — nearly $71 million staked here says official confirmation before 2027 is a near-certainty not to happen, treating the whole conversation as noise rather than signal.

Updated 3:52 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $31K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 106 days