Exactly Eight Cyclones Making China Landfall in 2026 Is Now Just a Lean
Source: Polymarket market “How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?”
8: leaning yes (58%)
Leading outcome
8 58%
Leaning yes · Falling · D · tracked 66 days
peak 80% (65d ago) · low 40% (46d ago)
likely → leaning yes
6 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▲
5.0 pts
8
Traded 24h
$13K
$220K all time
Resolves by
2027-07-01
Where the money stands
8
58%
▲
5.0
7
14%
▼
28.7
Greater than 8
8%
▲
1.5
Fewer than 5
0%
0.0
5
0%
0.0
6
0%
0.0
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