U.S.

Hawley Is Still Unlikely to Back the Clarity Act

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?”

unlikely (16%)
Resolved The money put John Fetterman at 16% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Josh Hawley 16% Unlikely · Falling · B · tracked 56 days peak 82% (55d ago) · low 16% (2d ago) very unlikely → unlikely 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 7.8 pts Josh Hawley
Traded 24h $13K $177K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-02

Where the money stands

Josh Hawley 16% ▲ 7.8
John Fetterman 16% 0.0
Raphael Warnock 12% 0.0
Thom Tillis 12% 0.0
Jacky Rosen 12% 0.0
Mike Lee 10% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. odds favor Democratic Party

Democrats Increasingly Favored to Retake the Senate

Democratic Party: leaning yes (64%)

With Ohio and Texas both leaning Democratic and the House already near-certain to flip, the money now prices a full Democratic sweep of Congress at 61% — a unified opposition government that would reshape the final two years of any Republican White House agenda.

Updated 5:34 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $130K markets read 34 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 57 days range 66% (1d ago) – 50% (32d ago) trending in today's news 2 tier changes venues disagree 29.2pp
U.S. Phil Scott on track to win

Phil Scott Is Likely to Hold Vermont's Governorship for Republicans

Phil Scott: likely (82%)

Amanda Janoo's surge has narrowed the gap enough to push Scott's odds down sharply, but what had been a leaning-yes reading is still a likely Republican hold — the race is tightening, not flipping.

Updated 5:25 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $109K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A leaning yes → likely
U.S. odds favor Nithya Raman

Nithya Raman Now Leads the Los Angeles Mayoral Race

Nithya Raman: leaning yes (58%)

What had been Karen Bass's race to lose has flipped — Raman now holds a visible edge, though at 58% the contest remains genuinely competitive and Bass, still priced at 40%, is far from finished.

Updated 9:37 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $307K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 54 days range 68% (42d ago) – 56% (2d ago)