Finance

Anthropic Is Very Likely to IPO Before OpenAI

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?”

very likely (91%)
Leading outcome Anthropic 91% Very likely · C likely → very likely venues disagree 38.0pp
24h move ▼ 3.0 pts Anthropic
Traded 24h $2K $387K all time
Resolves by 2040-01-01
Source markets 10 10 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Anthropic 91% ▼ 3.0
OpenAI 23% ▲ 14.0

Source markets for this story

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 96% · +0.8 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 91% · -3.0 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 78%
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 51% · -5.0 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75T–$2.0T 22%
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 57% · -5.0 24h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 94% · +2.0 24h
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $100B+ 36% · -9.0 24h
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Allen & Company 99%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 79%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Go Public Before April 2027

likely (89%)

An IPO is now the base case, not the aspiration — and the valuation picture is striking: the money puts better than 80% odds on a market cap above $1.8 trillion at close, making Anthropic's debut one of the largest in history if it lands. The timing has shifted later, with October odds fading even as the full-year window firms up.

Updated 12:24 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $16K markets read 12 venue Kalshi grade B trending in today's news leaning yes → likely AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to IPO Before 2027

likely (86%)

A listing this year would mark the first major AI-native company to go public, but conviction has eroded sharply from a near-certain peak just four weeks ago — this is a likely call, not a settled one, and the market has already reversed course multiple times.

Updated 12:24 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $5K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance odds favor Anthropic

Anthropic Edges Ahead in the Race for 2026's Biggest IPO

Anthropic: leaning yes (55%)

If Anthropic lists this year, it likely displaces SpaceX as the headline float — but with odds that have swung across conviction rungs seven times, and SpaceX still close behind at 46%, this race is far from settled.

Updated 12:24 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $2K venue Polymarket grade D a coin flip → leaning yes AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (1%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 12:24 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $298 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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The Fed Is Likely to Raise Rates in September

25 bps increase: likely (86%)

A hike is increasingly the default assumption, not a tail risk — but this market has swung across conviction rungs thirteen times, and the odds remain one tier below certainty, leaving room for a last-minute policy shift if data turns.

Updated 10:51 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $19.6M markets read 15 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 49 days range 88% (0d ago) – 48% (40d ago) resolves today 13 tier changes venues disagree 3.0pp
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Go Public Before April 2027

likely (89%)

An IPO is now the base case, not the aspiration — and the valuation picture is striking: the money puts better than 80% odds on a market cap above $1.8 trillion at close, making Anthropic's debut one of the largest in history if it lands. The timing has shifted later, with October odds fading even as the full-year window firms up.

Updated 12:25 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $16K markets read 12 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 45 days range 98% (9d ago) – 84% (44d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → likely 4 tier changes AI IPO beat
Finance

September Inflation Will Remain Above 3.4%

virtually certain (99%)

The striking move is not at the floor — above 3.0% is a near-certainty — but higher up the ladder, where above 3.4% surged to 94% and above 3.5% climbed to 67%, pointing to stickier inflation than the consensus had assumed heading into autumn.

Updated 10:08 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $78K venue Kalshi grade C