Curiosities

Anthropic Is Very Likely to IPO Before OpenAI

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?”

virtually certain (98%)
Leading outcome Anthropic 98% Virtually certain · Stable · C · tracked 47 days peak 98% (1d ago) · low 88% (40d ago) very likely → virtually certain 6 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 7.5pp
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Anthropic
Traded 24h $72 $436K all time
Resolves by 2040-01-01
Source markets 16 16 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Anthropic 98% ▲ 1.0
OpenAI 5% ▲ 1.0

Source markets for this story

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $1.75–$2.0T 30%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 92% · +2.4 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 86% · -5.9 24h
Anthropic IPO Date Polymarket · November 20 24% · +6.0 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Mar 1, 2027 92% · -1.0 24h
How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $95B to $105B 47% · +10.2 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.50–$1.75T 63% · -1.6 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 59%
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 78% · -3.8 24h
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $1.5T 82% · -5.5 24h
What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO? Polymarket · 8% to 9% 26%
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 92%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 98% · +1.0 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 97% · -0.9 24h
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 50%
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 7%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance a real race

Anthropic's IPO-Day Market Cap Is a Wide-Open Question

$1.75–$2.0T: probably not (30%)

The $1.75–$2.0T band leads at just 30%, with a surging $1.5–$1.75T challenger closing fast — what had been an unlikely scenario for the lower range is now probably not out of the picture, and a market that has crossed conviction rungs thirteen times offers no stable anchor for where the stock actually lands on day one.

Updated 1:44 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $131K markets read 16 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance odds favor SpaceX

SpaceX Edges Ahead in the Race for 2026's Biggest IPO

SpaceX: leaning yes (58%)

What had been a coin flip is now leaning SpaceX's way, but Anthropic still commands 42% and this market has crossed conviction rungs twenty times — the finish line remains genuinely uncertain.

Updated 1:44 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $52K venue Polymarket grade C AI IPO beat
Finance one clear front-runner

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is a Wide-Open Question, With $1.5T Slightly the Favorite

1.5T+: probably not (38%)

Even if OpenAI goes public, landing at or above a $1.5 trillion valuation is far from assured — a meaningful chance of no IPO at all by end of 2027 means the real uncertainty is whether the listing happens, not just what it's worth when it does.

Updated 1:44 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $18K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

a coin flip (50%)

A coin-flip split on one of the most anticipated listings in years reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Elon Musk will take SpaceX public on any predictable schedule — the money is not betting against it, but it is not betting on it either.

Updated 1:44 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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