Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 by...?”

a coin flip (50%)
Leading outcome March 31, 2027 50% A coin flip · Stable · D · tracked 46 days peak 50% (1d ago) · low 1% (42d ago) 6 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 0.5 pts March 31, 2027
Traded 24h $0 $31K all time
Resolves by 2027-04-01

Where the money stands

March 31, 2027 50% ▼ 0.5
December 31, 2026 3% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance leaning SpaceX

SpaceX's IPO Crown Is Now a Coin Flip as Anthropic Closes In

SpaceX: a coin flip (52%)

After trading near certainty just three months ago, SpaceX's grip on the top slot has dissolved — Anthropic's surge to 45% means the AI challenger has effectively drawn even, turning what looked like a foregone conclusion into the year's most genuinely open financial race.

Updated 12:27 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $32K venue Polymarket grade C AI IPO beat
Finance wide open

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Wide Open Above $1T

<$1T: unlikely (22%)

A sub-$1T outcome is now the single leading bucket but at just 23% — meaning the other three-quarters of the money is scattered across a wide range of higher valuations, with no consensus landing zone; the IPO itself is not expected before 2027, giving that uncertainty plenty of time to deepen.

Updated 12:27 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $11K markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news probably not → unlikely AI IPO beat

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