Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?”

virtually impossible (1%)
Leading outcome Yes 1% Virtually impossible · D
24h move 0.4 pts Yes
Traded 24h $187 $28K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Announce an IPO Before April 2027

likely (89%)

Confidence has slipped from very likely to likely over the past week, and the pullback in near-term windows suggests the timeline is stretching — but the valuation market pricing above $1.5 trillion means the question is not whether Anthropic goes public, but when.

Updated 10:02 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $61K markets read 11 venue Kalshi grade A trending in today's news a coin flip → likely AI IPO beat
Finance 1.5T+ on track to win

OpenAI Is Likely to Debut as a $1.5 Trillion Company

1.5T+: likely (78%)

An IPO at that valuation would make OpenAI one of the most valuable companies ever to go public, signaling that markets have priced in AI dominance as a near-certainty — even as AGI itself, whose achievement would theoretically justify the number, is given only a one-in-five chance of arriving before 2027.

Updated 10:02 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $16K markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade C leaning yes → likely AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance 25 bps increase on track to win

The Fed Is Likely to Hike Rates in September — and the Tightening Cycle Has Further to Run

25 bps increase: likely (80%)

A hold this year is now virtually off the table, with hikes expected to extend into 2027 — meaning borrowing costs are headed higher for longer than most anticipated even weeks ago, when a September move looked far from certain.

Updated 10:10 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $10.8M markets read 13 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 48 days range 88% (0d ago) – 48% (39d ago) resolves in 1 day very likely → likely 13 tier changes
Finance

A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement Increasingly Favored by End of 2027

leaning yes (72%)

What was a coin flip is now leaning yes — but the bulk of probability sits in the back half of 2027, suggesting this is a slow-moving corporate process rather than an imminent announcement. The market has crossed conviction tiers five times; treat the lean as directional, not decisive.

Updated 10:03 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $24K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 48 days range 79% (0d ago) – 17% (47d ago) a coin flip → leaning yes 5 tier changes
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Announce an IPO Before April 2027

likely (87%)

Confidence has slipped from very likely to likely over the past week, and the pullback in near-term windows suggests the timeline is stretching — but the valuation market pricing above $1.5 trillion means the question is not whether Anthropic goes public, but when.

Updated 6:52 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $69K markets read 11 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 44 days range 98% (8d ago) – 84% (43d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → likely 4 tier changes AI IPO beat