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OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Anyone's Guess

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?”

$2.5T+: unlikely (22%)
Resolved The money put $1.75T–$2.0T at 21% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome $2.5T+ 22% Unlikely · Falling · C · tracked 47 days peak 40% (45d ago) · low 18% (4d ago) 3 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 45.1pp
24h move ▲ 7.8 pts $2.5T+
Traded 24h $8K $231K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 21 21 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

$2.5T+ 22% ▲ 7.8
$1.5T–$1.75T 21% ▲ 1.6
$1.75T–$2.0T 20% ▲ 1.0
<$1T 19% ▼ 1.3
$1.25T–$1.5T 14% ▼ 2.1
$2.0T–$2.25T 4% ▼ 1.4

Source markets for this story

Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 82% · -2.0 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Mar 1, 2027 89% · -1.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $2.0–$2.25T 25% · +0.9 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 64% · +3.2 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 96% · +1.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 78% · -2.0 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 62% · +3.0 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $2.5T+ 22% · +7.8 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75–$2.00T 44% · +2.0 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 96%
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 56% · +1.0 24h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 84% · +8.2 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 56% · +2.0 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 95%
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 96%
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 73% · -11.0 24h
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 84%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 75%
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 49%
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 49%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic's IPO Is Likely Coming, but Timing Has Slipped

likely (82%)

An announcement before April 2027 is very likely, but confidence in a late-2026 close has dropped from near-certainty two weeks ago to merely likely — the IPO window is open, the valuation expectations are enormous, and the exact landing date is the only remaining question.

Updated 1:26 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $74K markets read 21 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to IPO Before 2027

likely (82%)

Recovering from a low hit eight days ago, conviction has crossed back into likely territory — but with seven rung crossings in this market's history, the signal is directional at best; no other company in the field comes close to Anthropic's probability of going public this year.

Updated 1:26 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $15K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance leaning SpaceX

SpaceX's IPO Crown Is Now a Coin Flip as Anthropic Closes In

SpaceX: a coin flip (50%)

What had been leaning toward SpaceX is now genuinely open — Anthropic has surged from afterthought to near-equal, and a market that has crossed conviction boundaries eleven times offers no settled answer on which AI-era giant defines the decade's landmark listing.

Updated 1:26 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $3K venue Polymarket grade D leaning yes → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (2%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 1:26 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance odds favor No change

The Fed's October Decision Is Now a Coin Flip Between a Hold and a Hike

No change: a coin flip (52%)

What had looked likely to be a hold just weeks ago is now genuinely uncertain — a rate hike in October is nearly as probable as a pause, though the year as a whole still points strongly toward at least one hike, with December carrying the heavier weight.

Updated 2:52 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.3M markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 63 days range 72% (33d ago) – 50% (12d ago) probably not → leaning yes 4 tier changes
Finance

10-Year Treasury Yields Are Very Likely to Hit 5.3% Before 2027

very likely (91%)

The Fed hiking cycle and the October coin-flip combine into a clear signal: bond markets are pricing in sustained pressure at the long end, with a non-trivial chance yields push well past 5.3% — the 5.7% outcome has gained notable ground — though this market has swung violently enough that the current read should be held loosely.

Updated 2:52 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $42K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 61 days range 98% (16d ago) – 40% (21d ago) 15 tier changes
Finance No IPO before January 2027 on track to win

Oura's IPO Is Likely Off Before 2027

No IPO before January 2027: likely (83%)

What was virtually impossible a month ago is now the base case — the smart money has abandoned every valuation bucket and piled into the no-IPO outcome, suggesting a deal or timing obstacle has materialized. The conviction is real but the volatility here warrants caution; this market has swung dramatically before.

Updated 4:30 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $74K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 56 days range 83% (0d ago) – 14% (36d ago) virtually impossible → likely 4 tier changes