Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to IPO Before 2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “IPOs before 2027?”

likely (81%)
Resolved The money put SHEIN at 95% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Anthropic 81% Likely · Rising · C · tracked 52 days peak 99% (45d ago) · low 74% (10d ago) 7 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts Anthropic
Traded 24h $25K $7.4M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

Anthropic 81% ▼ 1.0
Discord 11% ▼ 1.9
Celonis 5% ▼ 3.3
Perplexity 5% 0.1
Remote 4% ▲ 1.3
Stripe 4% 0.1
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance leaning 1.5T+

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Now a Coin Flip

1.5T+: a coin flip (51%)

What had been leaning toward a $1.5T-plus debut has collapsed to even odds after falling from a peak of 79% three weeks ago — while Anthropic's IPO path looks far cleaner, with an announcement very likely before March 2027 and an $1.8T-plus debut the stronger consensus.

Updated 1:07 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $15K markets read 25 venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news leaning yes → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (2%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 1:07 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance odds favor Google

Google Is Likely the Top AI Lab by October's End

Google: likely (75%)

Anthropic's collapse — shedding nearly two-thirds of its probability overnight — is the real story: something in the market's collective read of the two companies' model pipelines has decisively shifted. Google's lead through October looks solid, but its advantage fades into a coin flip by December, suggesting rivals expect to close the gap before year-end.

Updated 8:14 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $435K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 42 days range 88% (2d ago) – 74% (23d ago) very unlikely → leaning yes 2 tier changes
Finance

Google's Next Gemini Pro Release Is Now a Coin Flip for October

a coin flip (45%)

What had been a likely October launch has collapsed to a dead heat — a conviction-tier drop that suggests a delay signal reached the market. Gemini 4.0 by November still looks very likely, so the question is weeks, not months; but in AI, a month's delay can matter enormously given the competitive stakes reflected in the related AI model ranking markets.

Updated 8:14 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $81K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 64 days range 98% (58d ago) – 14% (45d ago) trending in today's news likely → probably not 16 tier changes
Finance odds favor No change

The Fed Looks Set to Hold Rates in October

No change: leaning yes (57%)

What had been a lean toward a hike is now a lean toward a pause — but this market has whipsawed four times, and a December hike still looks very likely, meaning the Fed's tightening cycle is probably delayed, not abandoned.

Updated 4:42 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.1M markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 64 days range 72% (34d ago) – 50% (13d ago) 4 tier changes