Financea real race

Anthropic's IPO Is Coming, but Expect a Modest Float

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO?”

4% to 5%: probably not (36%)
Leading outcome 4% to 5% 36% Probably not · Falling · B · tracked 5 days peak 34% (4d ago) · low 28% (3d ago) leaning yes → probably not venues disagree 3.5pp
24h move ▲ 5.0 pts 4% to 5%
Traded 24h $6K $8K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 17 17 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

4% to 5% 36% ▲ 5.0
5% to 6% 34% ▲ 7.5
<4% 18% ▼ 15.0
8% to 9% 7% ▼ 23.5
9% to 10% 6% ▼ 16.0
10% to 11% 4% ▼ 15.6

Source markets for this story

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $1.5–$1.75T 24% · +1.9 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 89% · -2.4 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027 96% · +4.0 24h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 91% · -2.5 24h
How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $95B to $105B 30% · -1.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 52% · -2.0 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 85% · -2.1 24h
Anthropic IPO Date Polymarket · November 20 22%
What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO? Polymarket · 4% to 5% 36% · +5.0 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.50–$1.75T 61%
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 92% · -4.0 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 97% · -1.0 24h
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $1.5T 76% · -2.6 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 97% · +0.8 24h
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 18% · -30.0 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 98%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 50%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance odds favor SpaceX

SpaceX Is Increasingly the Favorite for 2026's Biggest IPO

SpaceX: leaning yes (68%)

Anthropic's sharp retreat as a contender consolidates SpaceX's position, but this market has swung violently all year — the current lean is not a verdict, and Anthropic's own IPO timing remains genuinely uncertain.

Updated 5:30 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $51K venue Polymarket grade C AI IPO beat
Finance a real race

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Likely to Exceed $1 Trillion

<$1T: probably not (28%)

A sub-$1T outcome has slipped from plausible to unlikely, but with no IPO expected before 2027 and valuation spread across a wide range above that threshold, the real uncertainty is not whether OpenAI arrives big — it is how big.

Updated 5:30 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $9K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news unlikely → probably not AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Very Likely to IPO Before 2027

very likely (90%)

Despite slipping from a near-certainty high set roughly 11 weeks ago, the 90% read still represents strong conviction — though a market that has crossed confidence rungs a dozen times deserves skepticism about whether today's reading holds. No other candidate company is close.

Updated 5:30 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $11K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

a coin flip (50%)

A coin-flip split on one of the most anticipated listings in years reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Elon Musk will take SpaceX public on any predictable schedule — the money is not betting against it, but it is not betting on it either.

Updated 5:30 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $10 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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