Curiosities

A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Is Too Close to Call — but the Timeline Is Tightening

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?”

a coin flip (46%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 18% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31, 2027 46% A coin flip · Stable · D · tracked 47 days peak 68% (31d ago) · low 17% (46d ago) 4 tier changes over tracking period
24h move 0.0 pts December 31, 2027
Traded 24h $12K $1.2M all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31, 2027 46% 0.0
June 30, 2027 40% ▲ 1.0
February 28, 2027 26% 0.0
January 31, 2027 22% 0.0
December 31, 2026 18% ▲ 0.5
September 30, 2026 3% 0.1
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Official U.S. Alien Confirmation Remains Unlikely by 2029

unlikely (23%)

That nearly $30 million has been staked on this question says more than the odds do — collective anxiety about what governments know, amplified by years of UAP hearings, has turned a once-absurd proposition into a serious long-dated bet. The money still says probably not, but 'probably' is doing a lot of work.

Updated 11:56 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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Jack Lowden Takes a Narrow Lead in a Volatile Bond Race

Jack Lowden: a coin flip (45%)

What had been a long-shot is now a coin flip — but a market that has crossed conviction thresholds thirteen times is not a settled verdict. The role remains genuinely uncast, and any leak or denial could reprice this just as fast.

Updated 3:46 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $45K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 35 days range 48% (5d ago) – 22% (11d ago) 13 tier changes
Curiosities

Between 14 and 19 Major Earthquakes Are Likely in 2026

14–19 major earthquakes: likely (80%)

The seismic picture is well-contained at the extremes — fewer than 14 or more than 19 are both fringe scenarios — but within that band the split between a moderate year and an active one remains genuinely open.

Updated 8:25 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $13K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 29 days range 79% (0d ago) – 40% (27d ago) 2 tier changes