World

Whether the US Imports Russian Diesel by October Is a Dead Heat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “US imports Russian diesel by October 31?”

probably not (42%)
Leading outcome Yes 42% Probably not · C
24h move ▲ 5.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $66K $66K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World

The US-Iran Ceasefire Is Very Likely to Hold Through Mid-October

very likely (96%)

The truce is holding in the near term, but the money's confidence erodes sharply at longer horizons — dropping to 56% by mid-November — signaling that a nuclear deal and a permanent end to Iran's blockade remain distant, leaving the ceasefire's durability genuinely in question past the fall.

Updated 4:54 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
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World

Houthis Are Likely Losing Perim Island Before Year-End

likely (81%)

A Houthi departure from Perim Island would reopen a critical chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea — but the broader picture is unresolved: Hormuz traffic remains virtually paralyzed through October, and Kharg Island stays firmly under Iranian control, signaling a regional standoff that a single island transfer would not end.

Updated 1:46 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $45K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 14 days range 69% (0d ago) – 14% (13d ago) 2 tier changes
World a real race

Eizenkot Leads Israel's Next Prime Minister Race, Netanyahu Closing In

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (45%)

While coverage focuses on Netanyahu's political resilience, the money still gives Eizenkot the edge — but only barely, and a market that has crossed conviction boundaries six times warns this is a fluid picture, not a settled one.

Updated 9:32 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $325K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C tracked 74 days range 58% (48d ago) – 42% (0d ago) trending in today's news 7 tier changes venues disagree 6.4pp