Curiosities

America's Midterm Elections Will Proceed on Schedule

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?”

virtually certain (98%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 95% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Yes 98% Virtually certain · Stable · A · tracked 63 days
24h move ▲ 0.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $65K $609K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 40 40 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 64% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90% · -1.1 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 92% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 67%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 64% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 64% · -1.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 71% · -2.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 73% · +2.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 57% · +1.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi · Nithya Raman 59%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 37%
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 95%
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 55%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket · Nithya Raman 58%
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 63% · -1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 48 17% · -2.0 24h
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi · Greg Abbott 73% · +2.0 24h
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi · Byron Donalds 78% · +2.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 86%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Polymarket · Yes 98% · +0.5 24h
Iowa Governor winner? Kalshi · Rob Sand 89%
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 80% · +2.3 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 88% · -1.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 29%
Taipei Mayor Election Winner Polymarket · Chiang Wan-an 74% · +1.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 86%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 72%
Tennessee Senate winner? Kalshi · Bill Hagerty 92% · -1.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 63% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Governor winner? Kalshi · Amy Acton 66% · -1.0 24h
Vermont Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Phil Scott (R) 74% · -3.0 24h
NC-04 House Election Winner Polymarket · Valerie Foushee (D) 97% · +0.5 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 84%
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 55% · -3.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 62%
Republican House odds hit __ by October 31? Polymarket · ↓ 7% 53% · -26.1 24h
Georgia Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Rick Jackson (R) 50%
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 74%
Iowa Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 86% · -3.0 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 90%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Curiosities

Curiosities 0 on track to win

AI Likely Solves No More Millennium Prize Problems This Year

0: likely (80%)

The real wager here is existential: people are staking money on whether a single mathematical breakthrough signals a new era or a curiosity. What had been a lean is now a likely verdict that 2026 yields nothing more — while coverage hypes the AI math revolution, the money says the cupboard is probably bare until at least 2027.

Updated 3:33 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $35K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C tracked 28 days range 64% (0d ago) – 34% (25d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → likely 5 tier changes
Curiosities

Trump Will Almost Certainly Name Ken Paxton at His San Antonio Rally

virtually certain (99%)

That people stake real money on which specific words a president will utter at a rally reveals something about the moment: Trump's speeches have become so predictable in their cast of characters that they are tradeable commodities — and the crowd-sourced script writes itself.

Updated 4:20 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $371K markets read 3 venue Kalshi grade B trending in today's news
Curiosities

Satoshi's Bitcoin Is Very Likely to Stay Dark Through 2026

very unlikely (3%)

The fact that over five million dollars has been staked on whether a pseudonymous founder will move coins after more than a decade of silence says something about the anxieties crypto has generated — less a trading opportunity than a collective vigil, measuring how much faith the market places in an origin myth that has never been tested.

Updated 4:10 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $38K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 68 days