Curiosities

Bernie Sanders Will Say 'Billionaire' — Repeatedly

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “What will Bernie say during his Ballots Over Billionaires Rally in Los Angeles?”

virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome Billionaire (5+ times) 99% Virtually certain · C
24h move ▲ 6.0 pts Billionaire (5+ times)
Traded 24h $91K $120K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-19

Where the money stands

Billionaire (5+ times) 99% ▲ 6.0
Working Class 99% ▲ 14.0
Elon / Musk 99% ▲ 5.0
Tax Break 99% ▲ 6.0
Trump (5+ times) 99% ▲ 9.0
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 99% ▲ 14.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from Curiosities

Curiosities

OpenAI Announcing a Second Millennium Prize Solution by 2027 Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (54%)

What had been leaning yes is now a coin flip — and having collapsed from 93% just three weeks ago, this market is far too volatile to read as settled either way; the money is genuinely uncertain whether the first result was a repeatable capability or a one-off.

Updated 12:47 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $57K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 27 days range 93% (25d ago) – 50% (1d ago) a coin flip → leaning yes 6 tier changes
Curiosities a real race

AI Probably Solves Another Millennium Prize Problem by 2027

No solution by Dec 31, 2027: probably not (38%)

The Hodge Conjecture's collapse as the presumed next target has reshuffled the field, with the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture surging as the new contender — but the probability of no solution at all has risen sharply, revealing real uncertainty about which problem, not just whether. That people are betting on specific unsolved mathematical problems is itself a signal of how seriously the market takes AI's near-term capabilities.

Updated 7:39 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $18K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 27 days range 74% (18d ago) – 28% (26d ago) a coin flip → probably not 2 tier changes
Curiosities

State Data Center Moratoriums Are Unlikely to Pass Anywhere by 2028

unlikely (24%)

The anxiety is real — people are staking money on whether states will legislate against the data center boom — but after collapsing from a peak just four days ago, the odds now say the political will isn't there, at least not yet. The volatility of this market warns that a single high-profile grid failure or water dispute could reopen the question fast.

Updated 1:35 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $147K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 7 days range 46% (6d ago) – 24% (1d ago) 3 tier changes