World

A Trump–Flávio Bolsonaro Meeting in 2026 Is Now a Coin Flip

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?”

probably not (42%)
Leading outcome Yes 42% Probably not · C
24h move ▼ 1.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $22K $30K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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A Hormuz Deal This Year Is Possible but Far From Settled

probably not (36%)

Ceasefires on both the US-Iran and Israel-Iran fronts are holding with near-certainty, and Hormuz traffic is already flowing — but a formal agreement remains a long shot for now, suggesting the current calm rests on a fragile, uncodified truce rather than durable diplomacy.

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Le Pen's Presidential Bid Is Now a Coin Flip

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What had been probably not is now a genuine dead heat — but a market that has swung this sharply twice before should not be read as settled; her 89% chance of reaching the second round means the real question is who faces her there, in a fractured field where Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon together hold as much weight as she does.

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A Ukraine Ceasefire by End of 2027 Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (50%)

Talks are edging closer — peace negotiations by year-end are now very likely, and a formal ceasefire agreement by 2027 sits at 72% — but what had been leaning yes on a ceasefire has collapsed to a dead heat, a sign that bettors see diplomacy as probable and a binding end to the war as far less certain. This market has flipped conviction five times; treat the current read as unstable.

Updated 7:39 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $258K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 88 days range 52% (0d ago) – 10% (10d ago) 5 tier changes