A Hormuz Deal This Year Is Unlikely, and Normal Traffic Looks Further Off Still
Source: Polymarket market “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?”
probably not (30%)
Leading outcome
December 31 30%
Probably not · Rising · B · tracked 76 days
peak 68% (73d ago) · low 2% (38d ago)
15 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
0.0 pts
December 31
Traded 24h
$19K
$2.1M all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Where the money stands
December 31
30%
0.0
November 30
20%
▼
0.5
November 2
8%
▲
0.9
October 31
7%
▼
0.9
The Money Talks —
The Diplomatic Window Is Still Open — But It's Narrowing Fast
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