No US-Iran Hormuz Agreement Is Coming by September 30
Source: Polymarket market “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?”
very unlikely (8%)
Leading outcome
September 30 8%
Very unlikely · Rising · A
24h move
▼
2.0 pts
September 30
Traded 24h
$36K
$968K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-01
Source markets
28
28 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
September 30
8%
▼
2.0
September 15
3%
▼
2.2
Source markets for this story
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 16% · +1.0 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · December 31 61% · -1.1 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · August 31 100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 3%
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 29% · +4.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 8%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 75% · -1.0 24h
Israel closes its airspace by...?
Polymarket · September 30 8% · +1.5 24h
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
Polymarket · March 31, 2027 58% · -1.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 6% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 28% · -1.0 24h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Polymarket · December 31 36% · -2.0 24h
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 89% · +2.6 24h
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
Polymarket · September 30 100% · +12.4 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 30% · +2.0 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket · September 30 8% · -2.0 24h
Will Iran target Jordan by...?
Polymarket · September 15 100% · +36.8 24h
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Polymarket · Yes 10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Polymarket · Yes 0%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · October 31 43% · +10.5 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
Polymarket · December 31 22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Polymarket · Yes 18% · -1.0 24h
Will Iran target Iraq by...?
Polymarket · September 15 96% · +53.4 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 1%
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
Polymarket · September 30 94% · -1.0 24h
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