World

A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire This Year Is Very Unlikely

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?”

very unlikely (10%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 20% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 10% Very unlikely · Stable · D · tracked 66 days peak 22% (65d ago) · low 10%
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $16K $2.2M all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31

Where the money stands

December 31 10% ▼ 1.0
October 31 3% ▼ 0.6
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World leaning Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Leads Israel's Next Prime Minister Race, Netanyahu Closing In

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (45%)

While coverage focuses on Netanyahu's political resilience, the money still gives Eizenkot the edge — but only barely, and a market that has crossed conviction boundaries six times warns this is a fluid picture, not a settled one.

Updated 9:32 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $325K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 70 days range 58% (44d ago) – 45% (3d ago) trending in today's news 6 tier changes
World odds favor Alberto Núñez Feijóo

Alberto Núñez Feijóo Is Likely Spain's Next Prime Minister

Alberto Núñez Feijóo: likely (80%)

The Partido Popular's parallel lead in seat projections closes off Sánchez's most plausible survival path — Feijóo's route to La Moncloa now runs through an election, not a parliamentary maneuver, and the money treats that election as his to lose.

Updated 4:50 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $452K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 69 days range 82% (1d ago) – 74% (5d ago) likely → leaning yes 2 tier changes
World

A U.S. Invasion of Iran Before 2027 Remains Unlikely

unlikely (16%)

Despite sustained geopolitical tension, the money is not pricing a ground war — at 16%, invasion sits in tail-risk territory, suggesting that whatever escalation is underway, troops-on-the-ground is still seen as a political bridge too far.

Updated 2:58 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $19K markets read 18 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 70 days range 26% (69d ago) – 12% (40d ago) venues disagree 82.8pp