The Forecast Ledger
Every market we covered that has since closed, with the probability we published. This is the raw material of calibration — when we said 80%, how often was the money right? The ledger fills as markets resolve; scoring and calibration charts appear once enough history accumulates.
199 resolved markets in U.S. · average publication probability 68.3%
By conviction — Virtually certain: 32 · Very likely: 42 · Likely: 37 · Leaning yes: 25 · A coin flip: 21 · Probably not: 14 · Unlikely: 16 · Very unlikely: 6 · Virtually impossible: 6
By quality — A: 9 · B: 12 · C: 66 · D: 46
Trump Will Name Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, ExxonMobil, and Pfizer in September
Market closed · Kalshi
Between 10 and 12 Democratic House Incumbents Likely Lose Their Primaries in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Democrats Are on Track for a Solid House Popular Vote Margin in 2026
Market closed · Kalshi
Markey Wins Massachusetts Primary by at Least 25 Points
Market closed · Kalshi
The White House Will Post 160–179 Times in the Coming Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Is on Pace for a High-Volume Week on Truth Social
Market closed · Kalshi
Clarence Thomas Will Not Retire Before Mid-2027
Market closed · Polymarket
Joe Lombardo Is Favored to Hold Nevada's Governorship in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Republicans Are Poised to Hold MD-01 with Ease
Market closed · Polymarket
Moulton Is Virtually Certain to Clear 25% in the Massachusetts Senate Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Vance Will Call Democrats the Enemy in Sterling Heights — Tariffs Are an Afterthought
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Are Poised to Hold Massachusetts's Senate Seat in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Darline Graham Is Likely to Hold South Carolina for Republicans
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Are Likely Headed for a House Majority in 2026
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Call Democrats Communists and Socialists on Fox — It's a Certainty
Market closed · Kalshi
Alaska's Governor Race Is a Dead Heat Between Kreiss-Tomkins and Wilson
Market closed · Kalshi
RFK Jr. Will Talk Vaccines, Obesity, and Peptides on Fox News Saturday
Market closed · Kalshi
Ed Markey Is All But Certain to Win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Chris Pappas Will Be New Hampshire's Democratic Senate Nominee
Market closed · Polymarket
Stephen Lynch Is Likely to Win the MA-08 Democratic Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Name Isaacman and Invoke the Moon at NASA
Market closed · Kalshi
Maura Sullivan Takes a Clear Lead in the NH-01 Democratic Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Richard Neal Is Likely to Hold His Massachusetts Congressional Seat
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Visit at Least Nine States in August
Market closed · Kalshi
John Brendan Williams Now Favored to Advance in Alaska's Top-Four Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Will Win the Pennsylvania Governor's Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Is Posting at an Elevated Rate This Week — and Has Already Said
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Are Likely to Hold VA-02
Market closed · Polymarket
The Federal Gas Tax Will Not Be Suspended This Year
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Will Hold Virginia's Fourth Congressional District
Market closed · Polymarket
Greg Abbott Is Likely to Hold the Texas Governorship in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump's Approval Rating Appears Stuck in the High 39s
Market closed · Kalshi
Three Republican Senate Incumbents Appear Headed for Primary Defeat in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Darline Graham Wins South Carolina Republican Runoff by a Narrow Margin
Market closed · Kalshi
Ohio's Governor's Race Is a Dead Heat, With Acton Holding a Slim Edge
Market closed · Kalshi
Mike Johnson's Hold on House Republican Leadership Is Slipping
Market closed · Kalshi
Ashley Moody Is Poised to Hold Florida's Senate Seat for Republicans
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump's Approval Rating Sits at 39.7 Today
Market closed · Kalshi
Helena Foulkes Is Poised to Win Rhode Island's Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Ashley Hinson Holds a Meaningful Edge in Iowa's Senate Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Mike Mazzei Leads Oklahoma's Republican Governor Primary with Drummond Closing In
Market closed · Polymarket
Democrats Are Marginally Favored to Sweep the 2026 Midterms
Market closed · Polymarket
Eduardo Paes Is All But Certain to Win the Rio de Janeiro Governorship
Market closed · Polymarket
Roy Cooper Is Likely Headed to the Senate
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Are Likely Headed for a House Majority in the 2026 Midterms
Market closed · Kalshi
Ashley Moody Is Likely Headed to the U.S. Senate from Florida
Market closed · Kalshi
John Hart Is Poised to Win the Wairarapa By-Election
Market closed · Kalshi
Texas Leads a Wide-Open Field for 2026's Most Competitive Senate Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Republicans Are Likely to Hold Florida's 12th Congressional District
Market closed · Polymarket
Byron Donalds Is Likely Florida's Next Governor as Republicans Dominate the State
Market closed · Kalshi
Dan Koh Is Likely the MA-06 Democratic Nominee
Market closed · Polymarket
Byron Donalds Is Set to Dominate Florida's Republican Governor Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Republicans Are Likely Set to Hold FL-26
Market closed · Polymarket
White House Social Media Output This Week Is Trending Toward Moderate Volume
Market closed · Polymarket
Dan Sullivan Will Advance in Alaska's Senate Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Byron Donalds Has the Florida GOP Governor Primary Locked Up; Fishback Is Poised to Embarrass
Market closed · Kalshi
Oliver Larkin Is Virtually Certain to Clear 35% in FL-25's Democratic Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Has Almost Certainly Already Chosen His Next FDA Commissioner
Market closed · Polymarket
Eric Barlow Is Poised to Dominate Wyoming's Republican Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
The US Will Likely Not Acquire Greenland During Trump's Term
Market closed · Kalshi
Hegseth Likely Stays at the Pentagon Through Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Alaska's Governor Primary Top Four Is Largely Set, With Dave Bronson Surging In
Market closed · Kalshi
Eric Barlow Is All but Certain to Be Wyoming's Republican Governor Nominee
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Flood Truth Social With Over 200 Posts This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
The White House Social Output This Week Looks Slightly Quieter Than Last
Market closed · Polymarket
Republicans Will Win the Idaho Governor's Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Alaska's Senate Race Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Kalshi
Every Democratic Senate Incumbent Is Likely to Survive Their Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Mary Peltola Now Edges Ahead in Alaska's Senate Race
Market closed · Polymarket
The 2026 Senate Is a True Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Alaska's Governor Race Is a Dead Heat With the Field Reshuffling
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump's Next Livestream Is Likely to Feature Democratic Party Attacks
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Complete His Term Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Name Kamala, Obama, and Cuba Before Aug 17
Market closed · Kalshi
Republicans Are Poised to Hold Arizona's Ninth District
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Not Be Impeached and Removed from Office
Market closed · Kalshi
Ohio's Senate Race Is a Dead Heat, With Brown Holding a Razor-Thin Edge
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump's Truth Social Output This Week Is Genuinely Unpredictable
Market closed · Kalshi
The White House Is on Pace for a High-Volume Posting Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Chuck Gray Holds a Narrow Edge in Wyoming's Republican Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Yen Bailey Leads Florida's 2nd District Democratic Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Ryan Elijah Is Likely the Next FL-07 Republican Nominee
Market closed · Polymarket
Democrats Are Virtually Certain to Hold Arizona's Third District
Market closed · Polymarket
Arkansas Voters Are Likely to Expand Gun Rights and Restrict Voting to Citizens
Market closed · Kalshi
California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Faces Long Odds in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Mary Peltola Has All But Won the Alaska Senate Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Democrats Are Poised to Flip the Senate While the House Looks Already Won
Market closed · Kalshi
Ohio's Governor Race Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Bobby Pulido Holds a Razor-Thin Edge in TX-15
Market closed · Kalshi
Catalina Lauf Is Likely the Republican Nominee for FL-19
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Invoke Biden's Name in Nassau County Remarks
Market closed · Kalshi
Eric Barlow Is Likely to Win Wyoming's Republican Gubernatorial Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Democrats Are Narrowly Favored to Sweep Congress in the Midterms
Market closed · Kalshi
Peggy Flanagan Is Poised to Win Minnesota's Senate Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Crypto Market Structure Law Is a Dead Heat on the 2028 Horizon
Market closed · Kalshi
Troy Jackson Leads Maine's Senate Race But Collins Remains a Credible Threat
Market closed · Kalshi
2026 Midterms Shape Up as a Split-Congress Election
Market closed · Kalshi
Mazzei Likely Secures the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Nomination
Market closed · Kalshi
Vindman Will Be Florida Democrats' Senate Nominee
Market closed · Polymarket
FL-09 Republican Primary Is Now a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
David Crowley Is Likely to Win the Wisconsin Governor's Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Lisa Demuth Will Win the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Jared Moskowitz Is Likely the FL-25 Democratic Nominee
Market closed · Polymarket
Republicans Are Likely to Lose Their Senate Majority in 2026
Market closed · Kalshi
James Talarico Edges Ahead in Texas Senate Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Rebecca Cooke Likely Holds WI-03, but Van Orden Closes the Gap
Market closed · Kalshi
Xavier Becerra Is Likely California's Next Governor
Market closed · Kalshi
Alito Likely Stays on the Supreme Court Through Mid-2027
Market closed · Kalshi
Darline Graham Leads South Carolina's Republican Senate Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Nevada's Governor's Race Is a Dead Heat Between Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Narrowly Favor to Win the 2028 Presidential Election
Market closed · Polymarket
Troy Jackson Leads Maine's Senate Race With Collins Fading
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump's Posting Volume This Week Is Anyone's Guess
Market closed · Kalshi
Luke Bronin Is Likely the Next Democratic Nominee for CT-01
Market closed · Polymarket
Ed Markey Is Likely to Win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Nomination
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Is Likely Posting at a Brisk but Controlled Clip This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Brad Smith Likely Wins Wisconsin's Sixth District Democratic Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump's Tele-Rally Script Is Virtually Certain to Follow a Familiar Playbook
Market closed · Kalshi
Dalia Al-Aqidi Likely Wins the MN-05 Republican Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Francesca Hong Will Be Wisconsin's Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee
Market closed · Kalshi
Denise Powell Is Likely to Flip NE-2 for Democrats
Market closed · Kalshi
Kurt Alme Is Likely to Win Montana's Senate Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Kathy Hochul Is Poised to Hold New York's Governorship
Market closed · Kalshi
Max Miller Is Staying In the OH-07 Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Lisa Demuth Edges Ahead in a Suddenly Competitive Minnesota GOP Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Ohio Senate Race Is a Dead Heat, Husted Holding a Razor-Thin Edge
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Is on Pace for a High-Volume Posting Week on Truth Social
Market closed · Polymarket
A Fauci Indictment This Year Is a Coin Flip
Market closed · Kalshi
No Senate Candidate Is Likely to Exit Their Race Before August
Market closed · Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed Edges Ahead in Michigan's 2026 Senate Race
Market closed · Kalshi
The SAVE America Act Is All But Dead This Year
Market closed · Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed Holds a Narrow Edge in Michigan's Senate Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Mitch McConnell Will Not Vote to Confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General
Market closed · Polymarket
Vance Will Talk Iran, Fraud, and Democrats on Fox Saturday
Market closed · Kalshi
Todd Blanche Will Not Be Forced Out Before August 31
Market closed · Polymarket
The FCC Is Unlikely to Revoke a Major Network License This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Democrats Are Likely to Retake the House in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Spain Is Virtually Certain to Stay Silent on Morocco Over Ceuta Through August
Market closed · Polymarket
The White House Looks Set to Post Fewer Than 200 Times This Week
Market closed · Polymarket
Keohokalole Takes a Razor-Thin Lead in Hawaii's First District Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Josh Shapiro Is Likely Pennsylvania's Next Governor
Market closed · Kalshi
John Brennan Leads a Crowded Field of Figures Bet to Face Arrest
Market closed · Polymarket
Todd Blanche Will Be Confirmed as Attorney General
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Are Likely to Retake the House in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Republicans Are Likely to Hold AL-02
Market closed · Kalshi
Democrats Are Likely to Hold the Arizona Governor's Mansion in 2026
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Will Attack Democrats and Touch Every Major Culture-War Theme in Punchbowl Interview
Market closed · Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed Leads Michigan's Senate Race but Holds No Commanding Grip
Market closed · Polymarket
Troy Jackson Leads Maine's Senate Race with Collins Facing Longer Odds
Market closed · Polymarket
Jared Moskowitz Is All But Certain to Win the FL-25 Democratic Nomination
Market closed · Kalshi
Hegseth Is Likely to Remain Secretary of Defense Through August
Market closed · Kalshi
Karen Bass Leads the Los Angeles Mayoral Race
Market closed · Kalshi
Jeanine Pirro's Tenure as D.C. U.S. Attorney Is a Coin Flip Through Year-End
Market closed · Polymarket
Andy Ogles Likely Holds the TN-05 Republican Nomination but His Lead Is Slipping
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Is Posting at an Elevated Clip This Week
Market closed · Kalshi
No Democrat Is Poised to Announce a 2028 Presidential Run This Year
Market closed · Polymarket
Peggy Flanagan Is Likely Minnesota's Democratic Senate Nominee
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Almost Certainly Name Apple — and Kamala — in August
Market closed · Kalshi
El-Sayed Wins Michigan's Democratic Senate Primary by a Razor-Thin Margin
Market closed · Kalshi
McConnell Will Almost Certainly Serve Through the Midterms
Market closed · Kalshi
Karen Bass Holds a Meaningful Lead in the Los Angeles Mayor Race
Market closed · Polymarket
Iran Leads Trump's Next Remarks — Oil and Elections Close Behind
Market closed · Kalshi
Pirro's Departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney Is Too Close to Call
Market closed · Kalshi
Cori Bush Is Very Unlikely to Clear 37% in the MO-01 Democratic Primary
Market closed · Kalshi
Greg Abbott Is Likely to Hold the Texas Governorship
Market closed · Kalshi
Alito Retirement Before Mid-2027 Remains an Open Question
Market closed · Polymarket
Democrats Will Likely Hold CA-28 This November
Market closed · Polymarket
Matt Little Leads Minnesota's MN-02 Democratic Primary but His Grip Is Slipping
Market closed · Polymarket
Andy Ogles Likely Holds His Tennessee Congressional Seat
Market closed · Polymarket
Douglas Michael Basler and Adam Smith Are Virtually Certain to Advance in WA-09
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Is Posting at an Elevated Pace the Week of July 31
Market closed · Polymarket
Trump Is Posting Around 160-179 Times This Week on Truth Social
Market closed · Polymarket
Mitch McConnell Will Almost Certainly Serve Out His Term
Market closed · Polymarket
John James Is All But Certain to Be Michigan's Republican Gubernatorial Nominee
Market closed · Kalshi
Ken Paxton Holds a Narrow Lead in Texas Senate Race as Talarico Closes
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Faces Even Odds of Impeachment Before 2028
Market closed · Kalshi
Marsha Blackburn Is Likely the Next Republican Nominee for Tennessee Governor
Market closed · Polymarket
Tarrant County's Judge Race Is Now a Dead Heat
Market closed · Polymarket
Cindy Holscher Is Likely to Win the Kansas Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Todd Blanche Is Likely Leaving His Current Role Before Year-End
Market closed · Kalshi
Callie Barr Is Likely to Win the MI-01 Democratic Nomination
Market closed · Polymarket
Xavier Becerra Is Likely the Next Governor of California
Market closed · Polymarket
Peggy Flanagan Is Likely the Next Democratic Senate Nominee in Minnesota
Market closed · Polymarket
Michael Carbonara Leads FL-22 as David Burck Surges Into Contention
Market closed · Kalshi
Todd Blanche Will Be Trump's Next Attorney General
Market closed · Kalshi
Francesca Hong Is All but Certain to Win Wisconsin's Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Market closed · Polymarket
Byron Donalds Is All But Certain to Win Florida's Republican Governor Nomination
Market closed · Kalshi
Donavan McKinney Is Likely to Win the MI-13 Democratic Nomination
Market closed · Kalshi
Todd Blanche Is All But Certain to Be Confirmed as Senate Lines Up
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump's Approval Rating Is Likely to Fall Below 39.2 by August 7
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Use Obama's Full Name Before September
Market closed · Kalshi
Wisconsin's 2026 Governor Race Is a Dead Heat
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Will Dominate the Language of Massachusetts's Democratic Senate Debate
Market closed · Kalshi
South Carolina Senate Debate Will Feature Endorsements, AI, China, and Fraud
Market closed · Kalshi
Marsha Blackburn Is Likely Tennessee's Next Republican Governor Nominee
Market closed · Kalshi
Trump Almost Certainly Skips Mar-a-Lago All of August
Market closed · Kalshi
The SAVE Act Is Almost Certain to Fail, Whatever Trump Says
Market closed · Kalshi