U.S.Raymond Smith Jr. on track to win

Raymond Smith Jr. Is Likely to Flip North Carolina's Third Congressional District

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “NC-03 House winner?”

Raymond Smith Jr.: likely (76%)
Leading outcome Raymond Smith Jr. 76% Likely · Falling · A · tracked 14 days peak 76% · low 55% (6d ago)
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Raymond Smith Jr.
Traded 24h $1.2M $6.8M all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03
Source markets 5 5 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Raymond Smith Jr. 76% ▲ 1.0
Greg Murphy 22% ▼ 4.0

Source markets for this story

NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Raymond Smith Jr. 76% · +1.0 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 79% · +2.9 24h
CA-23 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jay Obernolte (R) 95% · +5.8 24h
FL-27 House Election Winner Polymarket · María Elvira Salazar (R) 98% · +4.0 24h
AZ-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Eli Crane (R) 99% · +2.5 24h
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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virtually certain (100%)

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Updated 8:12 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $2.5M markets read 12 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 97 days range 100% (0d ago) – 31% (62d ago) trending in today's news probably not → virtually certain 10 tier changes venues disagree 19.5pp
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Democrats, 14 to 16%: likely (80%)

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Updated 7:23 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $296K markets read 17 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 98 days range 80% (0d ago) – 24% (48d ago) trending in today's news 7 tier changes venues disagree 5.0pp
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J.D. Vance: probably not (38%)

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Updated 4:08 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.7M markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 101 days range 53% (65d ago) – 31% (2d ago) 4 tier changes venues disagree 86.2pp