Vance Leads a Fractured 2028 Republican Field After a Sharp Surge
Source: Polymarket market “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028”
J.D. Vance: probably not (39%)
Leading outcome
J.D. Vance 39%
Probably not · Stable · A · tracked 100 days
peak 53% (64d ago) · low 31% (1d ago)
4 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 18.1pp
24h move
▲
4.6 pts
J.D. Vance
Traded 24h
$1.4M
$729.3M all time
Resolves by
2028-11-08
Source markets
10
10 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
J.D. Vance
39%
▲
4.6
Marco Rubio
19%
▼
2.8
Ron DeSantis
13%
0.1
John McEntee
4%
▲
3.4
Glenn Youngkin
4%
▲
2.3
Tucker Carlson
4%
0.2
Source markets for this story
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 24% · -1.0 24h
2028 Republican presidential nominee
Kalshi · J.D. Vance 34% · +3.0 24h
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket · Jon Ossoff 28%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket · Jon Ossoff 21% · +0.8 24h
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 23% · +2.0 24h
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket · J.D. Vance 39% · +4.6 24h
2028 Republican VP nominee
Kalshi · Marco Rubio 14% · -13.0 24h
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket · Democratic 68%
Democratic VP Nominee 2028
Polymarket · Rob Sand 22%
2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?
Polymarket · Other 63% · +13.3 24h
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