Karen Bass Edges Back Into the Lead in Los Angeles Mayor's Race
Source: Kalshi market “Los Angeles Mayor winner?”
Karen Bass: leaning yes (59%)
Leading outcome
Karen Bass 59%
Leaning yes · Stable · B · tracked 93 days
peak 68% (74d ago) · low 50% (10d ago)
8 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 27.0pp
24h move
▲
4.0 pts
Karen Bass
Traded 24h
$376K
$45.4M all time
Resolves by
2027-06-02
Source markets
91
91 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Karen Bass
59%
▲
4.0
Nithya Raman
42%
▼
4.0
Source markets for this story
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 94% · +1.0 24h
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 67% · +2.0 24h
Who will control the House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 92% · +0.6 24h
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 70% · +1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 70% · +3.0 24h
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 63%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 68% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 70% · +2.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 76% · +5.0 24h
California Governor winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Xavier Becerra 97%
Who will control the Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 68% · +1.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Roger Marshall 53% · -8.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 44% · +5.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 58% · -7.2 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 16%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 76% · +5.5 24h
Florida Governor winner?
Kalshi · Byron Donalds 70% · -2.0 24h
Iowa Governor winner?
Kalshi · Rob Sand 85% · +2.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 83% · +1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 64% · +2.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Karen Bass 59% · +4.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 54%
South Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · Darline Graham 72% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Governor winner?
Kalshi · Amy Acton 82% · +2.0 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 63% · +0.5 24h
California Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 97%
Florida Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Moody 89% · -1.0 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 95% · -2.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 74% · +3.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 68% · -1.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 25% · -2.0 24h
NC-11 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jamie Ager (D) 85% · -2.5 24h
Mississippi Senate winner?
Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 88% · -1.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 57% · +3.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 68% · -2.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner?
Kalshi · Chris Pappas 91% · +1.2 24h
Montana Senate winner?
Kalshi · Kurt Alme 86% · -3.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 70% · +2.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola 70% · -0.5 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 74% · +1.5 24h
NC-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Greg Murphy 61% · -1.0 24h
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 82%
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Polymarket · None 26% · +7.0 24h
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Polymarket · Chiang Wan-an 69% · +2.5 24h
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 90%
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
Kalshi · Yes 30% · +5.0 24h
Georgia Governor winner?
Kalshi · Keisha Lance Bottoms 63% · +1.0 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026?
Kalshi · Kansas 15% · -2.0 24h
NC-11 House winner?
Kalshi · Jamie Ager 85% · -1.0 24h
NC-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Don Davis 83%
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 50% · -9.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 44% · +5.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 69% · +3.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 70% · +2.5 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 73% · +5.0 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 66% · +3.0 24h
Texas Governor-Senate combo
Kalshi · Greg Abbott and James Talarico win 42% · +3.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 68% · -2.5 24h
Nevada Governor winner?
Kalshi · Aaron Ford 78%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Polymarket · Karen Bass 60% · +2.5 24h
Arizona Governor winner?
Kalshi · Katie Hobbs 91% · +0.9 24h
VA-05 House winner?
Kalshi · John McGuire 59% · +1.0 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 62% · +6.0 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 90% · -0.5 24h
NY-17 House winner?
Kalshi · Cait Conley 62% · +2.0 24h
MT-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Sam Forstag 55% · +10.0 24h
Florida Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Byron Donalds (R) 70% · -2.0 24h
Tennessee Governor winner?
Kalshi · Marsha Blackburn 93%
PA-08 House winner?
Kalshi · Paige Cognetti 89% · +3.0 24h
VA-06 House winner?
Kalshi · Ben Cline 92% · -1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
Kalshi · Below 53 55% · -6.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Mary Peltola 68% · -1.0 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 80% · +1.0 24h
NE-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Mike Flood 78% · +1.0 24h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Polymarket · Yes 99%
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ken Paxton, 1+ pts 26% · -4.0 24h
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/25-10/31)
Kalshi · 200-219 27% · +9.0 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 55% · +0.5 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 86% · -1.5 24h
Minnesota Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Amy Klobuchar (D) 97% · +0.5 24h
New York Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 97% · +0.5 24h
Louisiana Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Julia Letlow (R) 90% · +2.0 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · Below 190 40% · +8.0 24h
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
Polymarket · Yes 1%
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 86%
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 92% · +0.5 24h
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 23 - October 30, 2026?
Polymarket · 180-199 52% · +34.5 24h
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Chris Pappas (D) 92% · +1.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 67% · +2.2 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 66% · +0.5 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 93% · +1.5 24h
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