U.S.

Ilhan Omar Very Likely Faces No Federal Charges This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?”

very unlikely (10%)
Leading outcome December 31 10% Very unlikely · D
24h move 0.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $15K $16K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31 10% 0.0
October 31 7% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S. odds favor Democrats Sweep

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep the 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (66%)

A full Democratic sweep — House and Senate — has climbed from a low of 44% two months ago to its current peak, driven heavily by near-certain House odds and a competitive but live Senate map in Texas and Alaska; the shift is real but the market has crossed conviction rungs twice, so the lead is not locked in.

Updated 4:54 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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U.S. a real race

U.S. Annual Inflation Is Headed for 3.7% in September

3.7%: probably not (42%)

The floor is firm above 3.5% and virtually no one is pricing in a return to target — with 3.8% now surging as a challenger, the risk is tilting hotter, not cooler.

Updated 6:20 PM ET ▼ drifting down for days
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traded today $48K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 22 days range 46% (2d ago) – 40% (1d ago) resolves in 3 days
U.S. wide open

Ocasio-Cortez Leads a Fractured 2028 Democratic Field With Newsom Close Behind

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: unlikely (18%)

A party without a clear heir is the real story — AOC and Newsom are tied at 18% while J.D. Vance sits near even money for the Republican nomination, meaning 2028 looks like a wide-open contest on both sides with no commanding frontrunner anywhere.

Updated 4:36 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $1.2M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 75 days range 23% (49d ago) – 17% (10d ago) venues disagree 29.4pp