U.S.

Susie Wiles's Departure From the White House Is Now a Coin Flip

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?”

a coin flip (50%)
Leading outcome Susie Wiles 50% A coin flip · Falling · B · tracked 85 days peak 100% (84d ago) · low 38% (83d ago) probably not → a coin flip 2 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 5.0pp
24h move ▲ 13.0 pts Susie Wiles
Traded 24h $23K $1.5M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 18 18 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Susie Wiles 50% ▲ 13.0
Pete Hegseth 44% ▲ 3.0
Dan Scavino 29% 0.1
Kristi Noem 27% 0.0
Markwayne Mullin 24% ▼ 8.0
Stephen Miller 22% ▲ 10.5

Source markets for this story

Will the House impeach Trump? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2028 72% · +5.0 24h
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 96% · +3.0 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 44% · +5.0 24h
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? Kalshi · Anna Kelly 23% · -3.0 24h
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi · Ric Grenell 52% · -6.0 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 34% · +8.0 24h
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -18.0 24h
Trump's approval rating on Nov 6, 2026? Kalshi · Above 39.0 45% · +3.0 24h
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Kalshi · Yes 24%
Will Trump be impeached by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 62% · -7.0 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas 93% · +27.1 24h
Next Press Secretary? Polymarket · Anna Kelly 20%
Next Press Secretary announced by...? Polymarket · December 31 69% · +4.0 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No recession 65% · +18.7 24h
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Polymarket · Susie Wiles 50% · +13.0 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas 73% · +23.4 24h
Counter-Strike: BRUTE SQ vs B.LINE (BO1) - MČR Group B Polymarket · Match Winner 100% · +27.5 24h
The Money Talks — Karoline Leavitt's Time at the Podium Is Over
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. all but decided

Democrats Are Virtually Certain to Flip the Senate — and Texas Is Already Called

Above 52: virtually certain (99%)

A Democratic wave of historic proportions is now the baseline, not the hope — Mississippi, Alaska, and a collapsing Republican hold on Texas have all repriced to reflect a rout, with the party now favored to hold more than 52 seats and potentially shrink the GOP below 45.

Updated 7:34 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $5.7M markets read 104 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 85 days range 78% (0d ago) – 20% (80d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → virtually certain 4 tier changes venues disagree 13.1pp
U.S. all but decided

Nithya Raman Is Virtually Certain to Win the Los Angeles Mayor's Race

Nithya Raman: virtually certain (98%)

Karen Bass's collapse from frontrunner to afterthought is now complete — what had been a contested race has resolved into a near-foregone conclusion, though a market that has crossed conviction rungs eight times warrants at least a footnote of caution.

Updated 7:34 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $19.2M markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 98 days range 68% (79d ago) – 50% (15d ago) 8 tier changes venues agree
U.S.

California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Is Very Likely Dead

very unlikely (3%)

What had been unlikely is now a near-foreclosed outcome — the initiative has collapsed from a one-in-three shot just weeks ago to a near-zero probability, signaling that whatever political or legal obstacle emerged has effectively ended the measure's viability before it reaches voters.

Updated 1:22 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.5M markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 81 days range 36% (80d ago) – 23% (1d ago) probably not → very unlikely 4 tier changes