U.S.

California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Initiative Appears Headed for Defeat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?”

probably not (34%)
Leading outcome Yes 34% Probably not · Falling · C · tracked 52 days peak 36% (51d ago) · low 28% (13d ago)
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $91K $1.3M all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $345K markets read 31 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 69 days range 94% (2d ago) – 86% (63d ago) 5 tier changes venues agree
U.S.

Alexandre de Moraes Is Unlikely to Leave Brazil's Supreme Court This Year

unlikely (16%)

What had been a 'probably not' scenario is now firmly unlikely, signaling that whatever political pressure was building against him has sharply deflated — his position on the court looks secure through year-end.

Updated 12:25 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $20K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 22 days range 23% (21d ago) – 8% (20d ago) 2 tier changes
U.S.

Justice Alito Is Unlikely to Retire by Mid-2027

probably not (28%)

Having fallen back to its tracked low after peaking eleven days ago, retirement odds suggest whatever speculation drove the recent surge has faded — Alito's seat looks secure through the resolution window.

Updated 10:21 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $22K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 64 days range 42% (13d ago) – 28% (57d ago)