U.S.

Pete Hegseth's Impeachment Odds Are Now a Dead Heat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Pete Hegseth impeached by...?”

a coin flip (50%)
Leading outcome June 30, 2027 50% A coin flip · B leaning yes → a coin flip
24h move ▼ 11.5 pts June 30, 2027
Traded 24h $42K $225K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 4 4 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

June 30, 2027 50% ▼ 11.5
March 31, 2027 42% ▼ 10.5
December 31, 2026 19% ▲ 4.2

Source markets for this story

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2028 93% · +5.0 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 48% · +3.5 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 34%
Pete Hegseth impeached by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 50% · -11.5 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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leaning yes (67%)

What had been very likely is now leaning yes — the near-term timeline has collapsed sharply, with odds of impeachment before July 2027 falling to a coin flip, suggesting any impeachment scenario has pushed well into 2027 or later. The broader administration picture — a Hegseth departure increasingly priced in, approval ratings under pressure — points to turbulence without an imminent constitutional crisis.

Updated 9:45 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $875K markets read 13 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 98 days range 75% (1d ago) – 53% (84d ago) trending in today's news likely → leaning yes 4 tier changes venues disagree 5.0pp