U.S.56 on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Flip the Senate and Hold 56 Seats

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)”

56: very likely (90%)
Leading outcome 56 90% Very likely · Falling · A · tracked 28 days peak 88% · low 30% (1d ago) very unlikely → very likely 3 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 90.0pp
24h move ▲ 86.9 pts 56
Traded 24h $3.2M $7.2M all time
Resolves by 2027-02-01
Source markets 36 36 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

56 90% ▲ 86.9
55 7% ▼ 64.8
57 4% ▲ 1.6
54 0% ▼ 13.6
Below 53 0% ▼ 2.7
53 0% ▼ 4.8

Source markets for this story

Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Scott Colom 97% · +92.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 93% · +3.2 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 99% · +4.0 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Scott Colom (D) 98% · +79.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · 56 90% · +86.9 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 45 89% · +72.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 94% · +9.2 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Polymarket · None 94% · +13.7 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 100% · +4.7 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 100% · +4.4 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Mary Peltola 93% · +2.7 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) Kalshi · At least 46 99%
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 44 93% · +73.2 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Mississippi 91% · +85.0 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ossoff, 2+ pts 100% · +0.9 24h
Texas Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Hinojosa, 1+ pts 100% · +24.8 24h
North Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Cooper, 1+ pts 100% · +2.4 24h
Florida Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Moody, 1+ pts 99% · +11.9 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 12%+ 95% · +31.1 24h
Florida Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Donalds, 0.5+ pts 99% · +0.8 24h
Kansas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Cindy Holscher (D) 100% · +17.0 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Jackson, 0.5+ pts 100% · +8.1 24h
Ohio Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Brown, 1+ pts 100% · +1.1 24h
Wyoming Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Barlow, 37+ pts 100% · +46.9 24h
Minnesota Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Flanagan, 1+ pts 100% · +5.3 24h
South Dakota Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Rounds, 9+ pts 100% · +20.7 24h
Ohio Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Acton, 1+ pts 100%
Closest Governor race in 2026? Kalshi · Kansas 91% · +80.4 24h
Nebraska Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ricketts, 1+ pts 100% · +10.9 24h
Arkansas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Cotton, 4+ pts 99% · +37.3 24h
Iowa Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Sand, 1+ pts 100% · +4.8 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round) Polymarket · Ossoff 18%+ 90% · +69.8 24h
Closest Senate Race? Polymarket · Mississippi 87% · +58.9 24h
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Brown 3-6% 92% · +58.5 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · El-Sayed 6-9% 95% · +72.5 24h
Alaska Senate loser concedes by...? Polymarket · November 4 3% · -41.4 24h
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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