Democrats Are Virtually Certain to Post a Blue Wave in 2026
Source: Polymarket market “Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?”
virtually certain (100%)
Leading outcome
Yes 100%
Virtually certain · B
probably not → virtually certain
venues disagree 23.8pp
24h move
▲
65.9 pts
Yes
Traded 24h
$56K
$107K all time
Resolves by
2027-01-05
Source markets
126
126 markets · mixed
Source markets for this story
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +5.5 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Nithya Raman 98% · +55.5 24h
Mississippi Senate winner?
Kalshi · Scott Colom 74% · +59.0 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
Polymarket · None 83% · +49.6 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 100% · +24.4 24h
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 21% · +8.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 86% · +16.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 99% · +45.4 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Below 45 66% · +49.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 99% · +12.0 24h
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket · J.D. Vance 31% · -4.9 24h
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket · Jon Ossoff 18% · +6.2 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
Kalshi · 56 68% · +60.5 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 0.5+ pts 100% · +26.9 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Scott Colom (D) 73% · +58.7 24h
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 17% · +5.0 24h
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket · Jon Ossoff 26% · +11.0 24h
Ohio vs. Akron
Polymarket · Pick-Six Scored 50% · +0.5 24h
Kansas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Cindy Holscher 96% · +60.2 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 84% · +12.8 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 12 to 14% 58% · +42.0 24h
NC-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Raymond Smith Jr. 76% · +35.0 24h
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Kalshi · Yes 3% · -17.8 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 100% · +44.5 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · El-Sayed, 2+ pts 100% · +25.9 24h
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Polymarket · Nithya Raman 99% · +57.6 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)
Kalshi · At least 46 99%
Closest Senate race in 2026?
Kalshi · Mississippi 92% · +89.0 24h
VA-05 House winner?
Kalshi · John McGuire 96% · +36.8 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Mary Peltola 85% · +16.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
Polymarket · 44 68% · +61.0 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 73% · +30.7 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 100% · +23.4 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ossoff, 2+ pts 100% · +5.0 24h
Kansas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Cindy Holscher (D) 98% · +62.3 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Talarico 12%+ 73% · +69.5 24h
NC-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Chuck Hubbard 86% · +68.0 24h
AZ-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Jonathan Nez 73% · +28.0 24h
CO-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Jeff Hurd 92% · +47.0 24h
ME-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Paul LePage 93% · +33.8 24h
Texas State Senate winner?
Kalshi · Republican party 95% · -2.0 24h
Ohio Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Brown, 1+ pts 100% · +34.8 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul Barringer (D) 99% · +65.2 24h
Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?
Kalshi · Democratic sweep 88% · +45.0 24h
AZ-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Mark Lamb 89% · -1.0 24h
NY-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Nick LaLota 96% · +14.8 24h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 3% · -20.6 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 99% · +42.5 24h
North Carolina Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Cooper, 1+ pts 100% · +4.3 24h
Michigan Senate: margin of victory
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8% 91% · +76.0 24h
Minnesota Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Flanagan, 1+ pts 100% · +9.5 24h
2028 Democratic VP nominee
Kalshi · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14% · +4.6 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Jackson, 1+ pts 100% · +36.9 24h
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
Polymarket · December 31 8% · -15.0 24h
Alaska House winner?
Kalshi · Nick Begich III 87% · +7.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrats 12-14% 56% · +40.3 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Zack Mullock (D) 98% · +68.0 24h
Mississippi Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Hyde-Smith, 0.1+ pts 26%
VA-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 96% · +37.5 24h
Oregon Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Tina Kotek (D) 100% · +15.4 24h
2028 popular vote margin of victory?
Kalshi · Democratic by 9.0% or more 67% · +45.0 24h
Texas Governor: margin of victory
Kalshi · Gina Hinojosa, ≥6% 87% · +84.0 24h
Nebraska Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ricketts, 1+ pts 99% · +35.1 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Richard Ojeda (D) 100% · +65.0 24h
WA-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Michael Baumgartner 92% · +15.7 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 99% · +27.9 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 94% · +6.0 24h
Kansas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Hamilton, 0.5+ pts 99% · +38.1 24h
TN-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Brent Taylor (R) 99% · +21.6 24h
South Carolina Senate: margin of victory
Kalshi · Annie Andrews, 4-6% 90% · +86.0 24h
Florida Governor: margin of victory
Kalshi · Byron Donalds, 0-2% 94% · +74.0 24h
AZ-08 House winner?
Kalshi · Abe Hamadeh 89% · +1.0 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · Below 190 99% · +53.9 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 45% · +9.5 24h
CO-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jeff Hurd (R) 90% · +45.5 24h
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 100% · +9.7 24h
FL-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Anna Paulina Luna (R) 99% · +30.1 24h
SC-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nancy Lacore (D) 98% · +49.7 24h
VA-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Shannon Taylor (D) 100% · +31.9 24h
FL-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Darren Soto (D) 99% · +61.0 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 99% · +68.3 24h
OK-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Stephanie Bice (R) 100% · +12.1 24h
ME-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul LePage (R) 92% · +32.2 24h
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 100% · +65.9 24h
FL-27 House Election Winner
Polymarket · María Elvira Salazar (R) 97% · +33.2 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +9.3 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · El-Sayed 6-9% 82% · +61.0 24h
MI-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Sean McCann (D) 98% · +38.6 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 100% · +28.9 24h
AZ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jonathan Nez (D) 74% · +29.5 24h
AR-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · French Hill (R) 99% · +25.5 24h
OH-10 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 99% · +69.3 24h
FL-07 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Ryan Elijah (R) 95% · +30.3 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket · Ossoff 18%+ 73% · +63.8 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
Polymarket · Yes 30% · +3.5 24h
Closest Senate Race?
Polymarket · Mississippi 94% · +91.0 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas 88% · +20.2 24h
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Moody 0-3% 84% · +62.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Brown 3-6% 84% · +58.0 24h
NC-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Chuck Hubbard (D) 84% · +67.5 24h
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket · Democratic 68% · +1.0 24h
NC-14 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Lakesha Womack (D) 98% · +77.5 24h
Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Donalds 0-3% 97% · +71.0 24h
MI-07 House Election Winner
Polymarket · William Lawrence (D) 99% · +21.3 24h
NY-21 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Anthony Constantino (R) 98% · +27.2 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-09 House Election?
Polymarket · Yes 93% · +0.5 24h
AZ-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Mark Lamb (R) 88% · -1.0 24h
CO-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Eileen Laubacher (D) 95% · +61.0 24h
FL-26 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Mario Díaz-Balart (R) 98% · +11.7 24h
NC-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Don Davis (D) 100% · +12.4 24h
NY-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nick LaLota (R) 94% · +15.0 24h
TX-32 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jace Yarbrough (R) 94% · +9.3 24h
TX-27 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Michael Cloud (R) 97% · -0.7 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No recession 65% · +16.4 24h
NC-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Cyril Jefferson (D) 100% · +86.0 24h
TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrat 6-9% 39% · +26.9 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-03 House Election?
Polymarket · Yes 57% · -9.8 24h
Alaska Senate loser concedes by...?
Polymarket · November 4 40% · -14.5 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the LA-02 House Election?
Polymarket · Yes 74% · -21.6 24h
CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrat 0-5% 50% · +5.0 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-14 House Election?
Polymarket · Yes 67% · -7.7 24h
Dem sweep & US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by end of 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No US stake 69% · +17.4 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 99% · +22.1 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas 70% · +19.4 24h
North Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Cooper 18%+ 98% · +76.3 24h
The Money Talks —
The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
Get an alert when Us 2026 Midterms moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.