U.S.wide open

Pennsylvania's Republican Senate Nomination Is Wide Open

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Pennsylvania Republican Senate nominee? (2028)”

John Fetterman: unlikely (17%)
Leading outcome John Fetterman 17% Unlikely · C
24h move 0.0 pts John Fetterman
Traded 24h $133K $133K all time
Resolves by 2028-11-07

Where the money stands

John Fetterman 17% 0.0
Dan Meuser 13% 0.0
Dave Sunday 12% 0.0
Brian Fitzpatrick 12% 0.0
Guy Reschenthaler 10% 0.0
Stacy Garrity 10% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S.

Mary Peltola Is Virtually Certain to Win Alaska's Senate Race

virtually certain (99%)

What had been a leaning-yes call is now virtually certain — Peltola's victory is effectively settled, and the action has shifted entirely to margin, with a 3-to-6-point first-round win now priced at 97%. Combined with a Democratic wave picture emerging across Senate and House markets, Alaska looks like the least contested seat on the board.

Updated 6:41 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $77K markets read 9 venue Kalshi grade A leaning yes → virtually certain
U.S. one clear front-runner

Vance Leads a Fractured 2028 Republican Field After a Sharp Surge

J.D. Vance: probably not (38%)

Recovering from a low set today, Vance's plurality is real but far from commanding — with Rubio at 22% and DeSantis at 11%, the nomination remains wide open, and a market that has crossed conviction rungs four times in its history counsels against reading today's bounce as a coronation.

Updated 4:08 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.7M markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 106 days range 53% (70d ago) – 31% (1d ago) 4 tier changes venues disagree 20.9pp
U.S.

Pete Hegseth Faces Even Odds of Impeachment by Mid-2027

leaning yes (62%)

His longer-term departure from the Pentagon is a near-certainty, but the impeachment route specifically has pulled back sharply from a peak two days ago — the money increasingly favors removal by other means over a formal House proceeding.

Updated 12:48 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $40K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 8 days range 84% (2d ago) – 48% (7d ago) 3 tier changes