U.S.María Elvira Salazar (R) on track to win

María Elvira Salazar Is Very Likely to Hold Florida's 27th Congressional District

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “FL-27 House Election Winner”

María Elvira Salazar (R): very likely (95%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Leading outcome María Elvira Salazar (R) 95% Very likely · B venues disagree 19.1pp
24h move ▲ 31.9 pts María Elvira Salazar (R)
Traded 24h $53K $145K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04 Today
Source markets 132 132 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

María Elvira Salazar (R) 95% ▲ 31.9
Eliott Rodriguez (D) 4% ▼ 33.0

Source markets for this story

Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 100% · +18.9 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +5.5 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Polymarket · None 98% · +61.1 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 100% · +23.4 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +22.4 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 100% · +32.7 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 100% · +25.4 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 100% · +43.8 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 45 73% · +58.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 100% · +19.4 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Gina Hinojosa (D) 100% · +60.5 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 100% · +13.8 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 96% · +25.0 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · +1.2 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 0.5+ pts 100% · +25.9 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · 56 75% · +67.4 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 100% · +26.5 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Scott Colom (D) 76% · +61.9 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Annie Andrews (D) 100% · +68.5 24h
Kansas Governor winner? Kalshi · Cindy Holscher 97% · +60.8 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 100% · +30.3 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 12 to 14% 57% · +41.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 100% · +44.4 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Josh Turek (D) 100% · +47.4 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 100% · +28.4 24h
NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Greg Murphy 56% · -3.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Adam Hamilton (D) 100% · +38.5 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 97% · +25.4 24h
Ohio Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 100% · +16.4 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) Kalshi · At least 46 99%
Minnesota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 100% · +8.5 24h
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 100% · +1.8 24h
Louisiana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Julia Letlow (R) 100% · +12.3 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 44 76% · +69.1 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Murphy (R) 54% · -4.7 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 99% · +23.6 24h
Michigan Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jocelyn Benson (D) 100% · +4.9 24h
Kansas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Cindy Holscher (D) 96% · +61.4 24h
NC-05 House winner? Kalshi · Chuck Hubbard 83% · +66.0 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 100% · +8.2 24h
NV-02 House winner? Kalshi · Teresa Benitez-Thompson 91% · +55.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 9-12% 57% · +50.8 24h
MI-07 House winner? Kalshi · William Lawrence 92% · +14.1 24h
CO-03 House winner? Kalshi · Jeff Hurd 66% · +10.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 100% · +8.0 24h
CO-04 House winner? Kalshi · Eileen Laubacher 99% · +63.9 24h
Florida Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Moody, 1+ pts 99% · +20.9 24h
Iowa Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 100% · +11.9 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Paul Barringer (D) 99% · +65.5 24h
TX-23 House Election Winner Polymarket · Katy Padilla Stout (D) 97% · +53.1 24h
Texas Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Hinojosa, 1+ pts 100% · +67.8 24h
ME-02 House winner? Kalshi · Paul LePage 83% · +25.0 24h
FL-27 House winner? Kalshi · Maria Elvira Salazar 97% · +34.9 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 100% · +6.4 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ossoff, 2+ pts 100% · +5.0 24h
Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win? Kalshi · Democratic sweep 94% · +45.1 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 100% · +43.1 24h
MI-04 House winner? Kalshi · Sean McCann 75% · +14.0 24h
IN-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · J. D. Ford (D) 90% · +67.5 24h
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Polymarket · David Crowley (D) 100% · +14.3 24h
TX-09 House winner? Kalshi · Leticia Gutierrez 95% · +61.0 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Zack Mullock (D) 99% · +68.1 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Jackson, 0.5+ pts 99% · +28.0 24h
Oregon Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Tina Kotek (D) 100% · +15.9 24h
New Hampshire Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Kelly Ayotte (R) 97% · +12.1 24h
North Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Cooper, 1+ pts 100% · +4.3 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 96% · +35.1 24h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Polymarket · Yes 100%
Tennessee Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Marsha Blackburn (R) 100% · +5.9 24h
Texas State Senate winner? Kalshi · Republican party 93% · -4.0 24h
Oklahoma Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Mike Mazzei (R) 93% · +2.4 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Richard Ojeda (D) 99% · +65.1 24h
Minnesota Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Flanagan, 8+ pts 100% · +53.5 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory Polymarket · Democrats 12-14% 56% · +42.2 24h
TN-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brent Taylor (R) 100% · +20.1 24h
Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout Kalshi · Above 8.20M 99%
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · Below 190 99% · +54.9 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 99% · +28.3 24h
Vermont Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Phil Scott (R) 100% · +31.4 24h
Arkansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Tom Cotton (R) 100% · +2.9 24h
Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 98% · +9.3 24h
Idaho Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Jim Risch (R) 100% · +2.9 24h
AP calls the Senate by...? Polymarket · November 3, 11:59 PM 100% · +44.0 24h
CO-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jeff Hurd (R) 60% · +4.5 24h
South Carolina Senate: margin of victory Kalshi · Annie Andrews, 4-6% 84% · +81.0 24h
Georgia Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Bottoms, 7+ pts 99% · +78.3 24h
Will Trump declare an election emergency? Kalshi · Yes 25% · -5.0 24h
Kansas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Hamilton, 2+ pts 100% · +48.8 24h
Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028) Kalshi · Above 56 56% · +45.0 24h
FL-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Anna Paulina Luna (R) 99% · +30.2 24h
NE-01 House winner? Kalshi · Mike Flood 85% · +7.0 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms? Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 99% · +64.8 24h
Senate Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine Polymarket · Dems sweep 99% · +32.8 24h
SC-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Nancy Lacore (D) 100% · +52.0 24h
AL-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Shomari Figures (D) 100% · +50.4 24h
FL-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Darren Soto (D) 99% · +60.8 24h
AP calls the House by...? Polymarket · November 6, 11:59 PM 100% · +15.7 24h
VA-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Shannon Taylor (D) 100% · +31.9 24h
OK-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · Stephanie Bice (R) 99% · +11.6 24h
South Carolina Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Alan Wilson (R) 100% · +4.5 24h
NV-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 90% · +55.0 24h
ME-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Paul LePage (R) 81% · +21.6 24h
FL-27 House Election Winner Polymarket · María Elvira Salazar (R) 95% · +31.9 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +11.1 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 100% · +31.4 24h
PA-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Bob Harvie (D) 100% · +36.5 24h
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 99% · +58.6 24h
AR-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · French Hill (R) 98% · +24.8 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · El-Sayed 6-9% 53% · +31.0 24h
FL-07 House Election Winner Polymarket · Ryan Elijah (R) 98% · +33.1 24h
MO-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Fred Wellman (D) 98% · +56.8 24h
OH-10 House Election Winner Polymarket · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 98% · +68.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Brown 3-6% 89% · +63.5 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round) Polymarket · Ossoff 15-18% 46% · +36.6 24h
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Moody 0-3% 86% · +63.1 24h
Alabama Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Tommy Tuberville (R) 100% · +7.0 24h
NC-14 House Election Winner Polymarket · Lakesha Womack (D) 100% · +78.6 24h
Closest Senate Race? Polymarket · Mississippi 98% · +94.0 24h
Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Donalds 0-3% 94% · +68.2 24h
NY-21 House Election Winner Polymarket · Anthony Constantino (R) 96% · +25.8 24h
MI-07 House Election Winner Polymarket · William Lawrence (D) 90% · +11.0 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-09 House Election? Polymarket · Yes 90%
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas 93% · +30.0 24h
NC-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · Chuck Hubbard (D) 86% · +69.3 24h
AZ-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jonathan Nez (D) 60% · +16.5 24h
CO-04 House Election Winner Polymarket · Eileen Laubacher (D) 96% · +61.3 24h
FL-26 House Election Winner Polymarket · Mario Díaz-Balart (R) 97% · +10.8 24h
NC-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Don Davis (D) 100% · +13.0 24h
IA-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Christina Bohannan (D) 97% · +3.1 24h
Nebraska Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jim Pillen (R) 98% · +8.3 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No recession 66% · +20.2 24h
TX-27 House Election Winner Polymarket · Michael Cloud (R) 98%
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