World

Andy Burnham Is Very Likely to Remain UK Prime Minister Through Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?”

very unlikely (7%)
Leading outcome December 31 7% Very unlikely · D
24h move ▼ 0.7 pts December 31
Traded 24h $14K $50K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World odds favor Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Now Leads Israel's Next Election, but the Race Remains Volatile

Gadi Eizenkot: leaning yes (58%)

What had been a coin flip is now leaning toward Eizenkot becoming prime minister — but this market has crossed conviction tiers eight times, and Netanyahu at 26% is not finished. The Yashar coalition priced to win most seats and Likud still favored to clear 20 seats together suggest a fractured Knesset where coalition arithmetic, not vote totals, will decide who governs.

Updated 9:04 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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World

The Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds — but Its Long-Term Survival Remains an Open Question

virtually certain (100%)

The guns are quiet and Hormuz shipping is flowing freely, but the ceasefire's durability past the U.S. midterms is genuinely uncertain — markets price only a 53% chance it survives through November 30, and a 38% chance through year-end, a fragile foundation for a post-conflict order.

Updated 1:33 AM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $340K markets read 18 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 90 days range 100% (54d ago) – 79% (26d ago) trending in today's news very likely → virtually certain 21 tier changes
World

An Attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (50%)

What had been leaning toward yes has collapsed to a dead heat, but the broader picture offers little comfort — ceasefires between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are holding firm while a Hormuz blockade and full Iranian airspace closure remain live risks, leaving the region suspended between fragile stability and escalation.

Updated 6:09 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $81K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 21 days range 72% (14d ago) – 52% (19d ago) trending in today's news 3 tier changes